Updated Payroll Status - No reason to not keep Correa...

The Astros likely would not have a problem spending 30 million the next few years on Carlos

The tough part is do they want to be paying him 30 million 8 years from now, 9 years from now and 10 years from now

 

It’s not really a matter of whether they can afford it, it’s a matter of if $250M/7yrs or whatever contract Correa is gonna get is a good use of resources. Would you rather have Correa for 7 years, or Semien for 5 years AND Scherzer for 2 years AND a guy like Valdez or Alvarez or Tucker extended for a year into their free agency? Because that’s the real choice.

 

I've broken down the payroll for next year multiple times. Astros have 40ish million to spend next year to get back to their current level unless they move out some guys.

Verlander, Greinke, Correa, Smith, and Raley = 74 million coming off the books.

HOWEVER, you have a 10.5 million dollar AAV raise for McCullers, raise for Maldonado, raise for Castro with his incentives he's reaching, raise for Yuli, raise for Pressly, and Odorizzi is not making anywhere close to his 8ish million AAV all the sites have listed for next season. Odorizzi is likely to make 14-15 million next season because of his incentives that are VERY obtainable.

Then you have to factor in arbitration raises for Framber, James, Diaz, Stanek, and Pruitt. I would estimate that adds about 6-8 million in payroll.

Also, something nobody seems to mention... next year Bregman makes 13ish million again. Yes, his AAV is still 20 million. HOWEVER, the following season Bregman's salary jumps to 30.5 million. His AAV might be 20 but that is REAL dollars coming out of Crane's pocket. Also, that same year the Astros will have a massive boost in salary via Framber, Urquidy, Javier, Yordan, Taylor, Stanek, James, and Tucker all being in arbitration. Then the following season add Luis Garcia to that list.

So yes next year the Astros have flexibility. However, it is not so clear the next couple years beyond that. Hell, Bregman's raise wipes out Brantley's salary when he comes off the books after next season. Not in AAV.. but in real money.

 

The reasons to keep or not keep Correa have very little to do with whether the Astros can afford it. It's *should* they afford it and does Correa even really want to be here?

 

He has said he wants to be here, and I think he would if the Astros fielded a competitive offer. “I love this organization. I love the Astros. I would love to be an Astro for life,” Correa said. You never heard any of that from Springer or Cole.

 

Ultimately will be Crane’s decision… as is everything.

Still always in wonderment how so many people are concerned with the spending habits of others. Unless you see a direct correlation that payroll expenditures makes it more expensive to be an Astros fan (and with dynamic pricing, that very well could be the case)… if Crane wants to spend the extra money to retain certain players, he knows his (and the team’s) finances better than anybody.

 

It's sports. Spending on good players helps make a team more competitive. We (fans) all want our teams to get and keep good players. That costs money.

I don't think that's the sort of thing that should place you in wonderment. It's the same concern people had with Tillman and perpetual roster moves designed to avoid the luxury tax during the contending years.

 

Did this really need its own thread?

 

We all hope that's true, but words are meaningless, especially when someone's under contract anyway and is trying to get an organization to pay maximum value. Correa also talks in general way more than Cole or Springer - you never heard those other players talk about the contract offers they got from Houston or anything like tha. I'm sure Correa would love to be Astro for life if they pay him more than anyone else. The question becomes what happens when someone else offers to pay as much or more.

Regardless of what he really wants, he should make it seem like he'd love to be an Astro and that he's open to offers from them - it adds one more bidder to the pool.

I'm not saying the Astros shouldn't sign him or that he doesn't want to be here - just that we never really know. Players have images to maintain, and part of the allure of Correa is his loyalty to an organization. He has to play that part because it generates value for him, regardless if he believes it.

 

Of course it has a direct impact to the type of player a team can have. I’m not necessarily talking about the people who are angry for lack of spending.

There’s a healthy subset of people who are concerned with an owners decision to spend money on players, not the opposite. Just like I’m sure there are some applauding Tillman’s decision to avoid the luxury tax so the Rockets (and his) financial situation is in a better state.

Crane has been ultra-consistent in terms of fiscal responsibility… but also spending market value to extend windows. They did not need to extend Altuve when they did. They did not need to extend JV. The Bregman extension ultimately got rid of the extra arbitration hassles and gave him a fairly good down-payment on being a possible career Astro.

 

I don’t think Crane will put out a non-contending team with a large payroll….That is a recipe for disaster, even if the team has a slight outside chance to contend for a wild card spot.

With the Astros locked into prime years of some core/star players, they should look to extend the window every which way.

 

I misinterpreted your original post then. And I agree with you point - it's odd how people urge fiscal responsibility and advocate for a billionaire saving money as opposed to paying the guys who play.

I understand the concerns when you talk a salary cap and the wasting of salary cap space - a commodity that teams have in limited supply. I assume that folks who are concerned about overpaying baseball players imagine catastrophic consequences down the road for the overpay. But you're absolutely right that Crane is a smart guy who can take care of his own money. And if the team can accommodate Verlander's $66m for 1 inning the past two seasons and still be highly competitive, it's unlikely a Correa overpay renders them unable to compete in the future.

 

Zack Greinke is getting a huge contract by a team like the Padres

Justin Verlander could go to the Angels. He lives there in the off-season.

Joe Smith is leaving

It is sad Jake Odorizzi, Pedro Baez were signed.

I was hoping Jake pitched better, but he is inconsistent or bad.

Astros have 5 really bad contracts. 3 of them will be gone.

 

Carlos puts us North of 2 billion in value. Easy sign. No hesitation.

 

I don’t think Correa is lip servicing when he says the Astros are his number 1 choice. Or were before the season started. My guess is he takes our offer if it’s extremely competitive with the best he gets. No idea what Crane and company ultimately feel comfortable with though.

 

Correa has made it clear. He is only about the money. Our 25 million a year offer was a slap in his face when he is often out of the lineup or slumping. I'd just as soon he leave. Although I do love his defense.