Yeah I agree with this. Wouldn’t even entertain the idea of including Brown or Leon in any deal unless you are getting a young, controllable, elite SP or is on the verge of being elite- and those are very hard to come by. Scherzer would be a huge get- but if the reports are true (that a trade would be contingent on a team extending him) then you are basically trading for an aging Scherzer and the “right to pay him”. Sounds like the Stros are doing their due diligence on any player who can help upgrade the team- and that’s what I like to see. This will be a good opportunity for Jimmy Click to put his own stamp on the direction of the Astros for this year and possibly, years to come.
Yep. Much like when Detroit traded Verlander, with how much money he has left and how old he is, there is no way the Nats can expect a prospect return that will give the fan base much reason to be happy about the trade. Trading Scherzer is the smart thing to do, but it’s a pure admission that their window (at least for this season, but likely for the foreseeable future) is closed. Given the Nats owner’s history, I will be really surprised if Scherzer is traded. But I agree it is good to hear Houston linked to every star player on the block because it shows Click is active in the market even if nothing comes from it or if it’s just a smokescreen.
A fair-value but highly unrealistic hypothetical 3 team trade that would make the offseason pretty boring: Astros get: 3B Kris Bryant (signed to $160M/5yr extension) SP Max Scherzer (signed to $80M/3yr extension) RP Craig Kimbrel Nats get: SP Jose Urquidy Cubs get: RHP Josh James 3B Abraham Toro SS Sammy Infante (from Nats) OF Chas McCormick RHP Angel Macuare Resulting Astros roster: 2B Altuve LF Brantley 3B Bregman DH Alvarez SS Correa CF Bryant RF Tucker 1B Gurriel C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Castro, Straw Rotation: Scherzer, Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Odorizzi Bullpen: Garcia, Pruitt, Smith, Stanek, Raley, Baez, Javier, Pressly, Kimbrel Next season, Garcia moves into the rotation to replace Greinke and there’s an open competition among all the young arms for the last bullpen spot. Bryant moves to 3B and Straw back into CF, with Meyers stepping in as the 4th OF and Bregman moving over to SS. Houston could sign a cheap good defensive SS like Simmons or Galvis as insurance (along with Diaz) in case Bregman can’t cut it at SS (in which case Bryant could move back into the OF, although injuries would almost certainly ensure an open spot for him somewhere). Astros going to a 9 man bullpen after the deadline helps with innings limit issues.
It's one thing for J.D. Davis, a former high draft pick, to develop as a 26-year-old. It's something else to expect some sort of late breakout by 28-year-old Taylor Jones. I would say at this point that seems extremely unlikely. Teams typically cut bait on AAAA players like Jones by his age in favor of younger prospects.
I don’t; hypothetical Scherzer trade is the only scenario I put Urquidy into. But trading Urquidy for Scherzer is a way for Houston to avoid trading their top prospects for a rental, and it lets them add an ace without having a logjam in the rotation. Urquidy should be a very valuable player and if they plan to add a SP then he becomes somewhat expendable. But also, did you see the resulting roster from that trade???
I would likely over pay for Scherzer if an extension can be agreed upon in the 3/90 range. He has finished no worse than 5 in the Cy Young voting in since 2013, except for the shortened COVID season.... he is a true big game pitcher and will give you 200 innings of premium pitching. His homers are up, but everything else is elite this season. Everything is a risk, but Verlander's money is coming off the top and rolling the dice on Scherzer for 3 years seems reasonable to me. That doesn't even get into the Astros having him for the remainder of THIS year, where the Astros have a genuine shot to win a WS, and those chances are scarce for most franchises..... you give me Scherzer at the top of our rotation, I feel really good. The Astros could even move Jake Odorizzi this off season if they want to free up other money. If the Nats want Urquidy, then they can pay the remainder of the salary for Scherzer for this season. That money can be used by the Astros to sign someone in the rotation next year on a short term deal.
Agree with this. I have some slight sentimental remorse in that it almost certainly means no Verlander, but JV is older and coming off major surgery. If they ate most/all of his salary (or whatever is necessary to keep the Astros under the threshold), I'd probably make that move of Urquidy (and probably a mid grade prospect too).
Yes. Also, depending on what the Astros think of Leon and Pena, it is possible that the Astros could even bring Verlander back on a short term deal for money in the teens for one season. He is 39 years old and will not have pitched in nearly two seasons. Greinke is coming off the books as well.
Urquidy has 4.5 seasons of control and is projected to put up a combined war in the 6-12 range over that time. That gives him a surplus value in the $30M-$80M range. Even at the lowest end of that there is no way it can be reasoned that Scherzer is worth $30M for half a season even if the Nats pick up all of his remaining salary (although, flags fly forever). So I would not want them to trade Urquidy for Scherzer unless the Nats picked up all the money and included a 2nd tier prospect.
I tried looking on their roster for a young player that is under control that they could add to make the deal fair and I really could not find anyone that would help the Astros now and next year. Robles is a former top prospect but he hasn't been anything special.
I don't think they'd trade Robles, though I'd gladly take him despite his struggles this year (and last, but you can't really count 2020).
Scherzer is owed deferred money. How does that work? If Houston acquires him, Houston has to pay it? Or that's between the Nationals and Scherzer? Or that's something the Astros and Nationals have to figure out during trade talks? Is deffered money still part of the team salary? If not, odds of Crane willing to pay it if it means giving lesser prospects?
