I'm as skeptical about his scoring ability as well, but he's not your traditional back to the basket big man. His offense will rely heavily on how well he develops his jumper. The release is a bit slow, but it looks good. He hit 13/25 from midrange and 12/40 from three. I'm encouraged that he attempted more from deep as that'll open up his dribble drive game if it improves. I've compared him a lot to JJJ, who is a good scorer and defender on the NBA level despite not being a dominant post player or rebounder. I'm discouraged that Mobley's a terrible screen setter. Even on the plays where he scores as a roll man he doesn't make contact on his screens at all. Young Tyson Chandler and Capela were skinny, but they set hard screens. I think it's key to forcing a switch for the ballhandler and getting open for alley oops. Mobley can't slip every screen, he needs to hit people. Also, he's not the most explosive athlete. No one's going to confuse him for Shawn Kemp or Amare. Again, that's kind of important for those easy alley oop buckets.
Crazy that this keeps getting repeated. https://www.nba.com/cavaliers/features/prospect-profile-mobley-210713 It’s when you match the size with his two-way skillset that things get interesting. He moves end-to-end with grace in transition, handles the ball with ease and is an explosive leaper around the rim.
This guy intrigues me. The combination of size, fluidity and shooting touch reminds me of Ralph Sampson.
Anyone that thinks Mobley isn't the clear #2 should stick to watching Twitter and tictoc videos and give up on scouting nba talent. Consuming is your job, you've clearly failed at evaluating nba talent.
This is what irks me about the debate between these two guys: the Green argument is that Green is a dominant scorer at the next level in the mold of a Kobe or MJ (previous comps to Beal and Lavine have given way to all timers). Now, to get there they acknowledge he is going to have to improve his body (mass and strength) and skill (court vision and handle). So they are projecting. In the case of Green it is assumed that he will achieve those improvements and so they project his best case scenarios. In Mobley's case it is assumed he will achieve neither improvements in his body nor his skill. So the argument turns to fully developed, potential reached Jalen Green vs. 19 year old college freshman Evan Mobley. That is how he is being sold short on this board IMO. As for the debate, I think both guys would be amazing in Rockets' uniforms. I lean Mobley simply because I am convinced his defense will translate and I dont see a way that he isnt at least above average as an offensive player (scoring AND passing). I can easily see him being a 15 point/8 rebound/3 assist/2 block/1 steal guy within a season or two. Marrying that with an improved team defense makes him an easy guy to build around as you maintain flexibility in building whatever you want around him. Even if Green is a 20 ppg scorer as early as his rookie season, how far has that gotten Zach Lavine (7 years and he is still waiting to a have a .500 season despite a 19 ppg career average)? Anthony Edwards averaged 19 ppg as a rookie and his team went 23-49 with more talent than the Rockets roster. Devin Booker's career W-L record is 121-280 without CP. None of this means that Green will necessarily follow suit. I just point all of this out to demonstrate that whoever is the guy at #2, even if they pan out perfectly, doesnt mean the Rockets are going to turn it around. This guy is a piece to the puzzle.
That's the thing, people assume Green will develop skills he doesn't seem to possess and Mobley will not improve the skills he already possesses. He doesn't look like a traditional big man and doesn't play like one either. Thats what should be exciting to people. He's more like a taller Garnett with a more calculated game. His only real downside that deserves a raised eyebrow is that he shies away from contact and lacks motor. That won't work at the Pro level. But other than that he can score, pass, defend the 1-5 (!), and isn't a total liability from the FT line. Every prospect has flaws. Even Cade. But you go with the one that checks most of the boxes.
Great post - totally agree. I think the bigger take away from these observations in terms of his draftability is that he is probably more of a project than people are making him out to be - not that he is raw, but that it will take him some time to fill out the parts of his game that will be required for him to be a franchise guy. I think the scouts agree he is a smart defender and will likely have a high ceiling as a defensive player(somewhere in the ballpark but not quite as good as a young Anthony Davis defensively) and probably a fairly high floor even but I think the offensive side is where he has a non traditional big skill set(ball handling, passing) that could make him a swiss army knife if he develops the rest of his offensive game. That's not to say he won't be a great player down the road but I think he is still 4-5+ years away from being a franchise guy if he gets there(similar timeframe to when Giannis became a megastar) but I think with the 2nd pick you should expect a more complete player sooner than that. We were the worst team in the league this year - I don't think anyone on this board can stomach using a high draft pick this year on Mobley, get 4 or 5 wins better next year and start to see the real fruits of that pick 4+ years from now....meanwhile our pick next year will be like 5th or 6th(aka, 2nd tier, talent that has more risk and longer timetables to become a franchise guy). In theory we should be picking up complementary "Robins" and role players in the next few drafts - not perpetually waiting and hoping for a franchise guy to develop. Filling out a roster around a star via the draft is so much easier if you know you have that star from day 1.
Im convincing myself that Kai Jones is a better prospect than Evan Mobley. I forgot how draining draft cycles were! Sheesh!
I think the nuance there is that while Green's body limits his effectiveness to finish through contact, he was doing it against NBA sized grown men and his athleticism and burst got him to the rim and he averaged nearly 18 while Mobley was limited doing similar against "big 19 and 20yr olds". In that way, Green has proven his skill set against NBA sized/skilled guys while Mobley's is still TBD. I personally think when people argue for one pick over another we are all assuming fully formed x vs fully formed y but I think dimensionally we need to recognize that Mobley isn't going to look like a franchise guy/carry a team on his back until at least 4 or 5 years. That's an important context because I think you should expect to have a franchise guys sooner than that with the 2nd pick because what happens 3 yrs from now and Mobley is still trying to figure it out and another high upside big pops up in the draft but your 2021 #2 pick is still working on getting there? ...or what happens when you want to sign an impactful FA with the cash we have once Wall's contract is up and there is an elite big sitting there? I have no doubt Mobley will be great down the road, but I think he is going to take more time to be a "carry the team on my back" type than people are giving him credit for. And by the way - it's not fair to Mobley really because a number of factors(hand check rules, value of the 3pt shot, injury histories of bigs) mean the most impactful players in the league are largely guards and forwards who can get to the rim or shoot 3s(Green's skill set). I just think it generally takes bigs longer to develop to be 'that guy' and my read as a non expert is Mobley isn't coming out of college far enough ahead as "that guy" already....but I could be wrong because I don't watch college basketball like I do pros so maybe I got Mobley completely wrong - I just know what I have read from draft experts.
people need to take a look at the list of guys taken 2nd overall the last 20 years only 40% of #2 overall picks the past 30 years have made an All-Star team If Mobley takes 4 or 5 years to become really good then so what? Brandon Ingram was nothing special until year 4. Lonzo just became better than decent and deeply flawed this past season, his 4th year in the league. He wasn’t taken 2nd, but Bradley Beal is competing for scoring titles now, but was a mediocre 1-dimensional scorer with career averages of 16 ppg on way below average efficiency until year 5.
You've convinced me with that dunk. Mobley is equal to prime Kemp and Amare in explosiveness. Nah, just kidding. I'll stick to the JJJ comparison for athleticism and body control. JJJ is also a fluid athlete that can dunk explosively. Despite this he dunks at a third of the rate of Capela and isn't known for being the biggest alley oop threat. Saying Mobley isn't the most explosive leaper isn't a knock on his skill level. He just might not get those easy vertical points.
The Rockets window for contention will just be opening in 4 or 5 years. We are all going to suffer for at least another year or two before the Rockets enter into phase 2 of the rebuild (letting the kids develop). OKC/Sea were 20-62 & 23-59 Durant's first two seasons. They didn't make the playoffs until year 3 and that was after adding Westbrook AND Harden. So building through the draft takes time even when you're selecting future MVPs.
He’s athletic... nothing in those videos showed Shawn kemp or Amare though. Those guys were actually the “most athletic”.
