They will never go over just to go over. They will never spend money just to spend money. It has to be for the right player, the right situation, the right cost. That's also why Click said if they're going to go over, they could go "way" over... meaning if that perfect combination of deal/player became available, its going to be the type of difference-maker that puts them that far over the edge in terms of being the "favorites".
They need a late inning reliever. There are several that have been rumored to be on the move and that would allow the Astros to stay under the tax. I don't see the Astros adding a significant position player or starter barring more injuries. So if they can boost the bullpen and stay under the tax it makes sense to try that first.
I don’t care if we go over the tax this year . Don’t get me wrong , I’d like to add one more bullpen arm and we are right up against it ... so getting another arm would likely put us over . but , I’m more concerned about keeping Carlos next year and beyond . between stank , Taylor , scribbled , and padres we have enough guys that COULD be ok . they just have to be hot . Maybe Baez arrives. Maybe Javier or Odorizzi become relief aces .. verlander anyone ? I don’t know enough about who’s out there and what it will cost .
Exactly If teams are offering decent set up guys who would put us over to he tax of course we will not do that But if Philly calls and says we are willing to move on from Wheelers contract if we can get an upside arm, we would likely be all about an honest listen
Random questions. Does Whitley have any sort of value? I take it he's no longer a untouchable since Click is the GM and not Luhnow. Would teams still look at Whitley as 1 of the main piece or a throw in?
Whitley still has value but it has dropped dramatically since he was considered untouchable 2+ years ago. I doubt he would be considered the main piece in a trade even just for a good RP. But opinions on a pitching prospect like that could vary greatly so who knows. My guess is that we will see 2-3 young players from the following group of young upper level pitching as the primary pieces going out: Bryan Abreu, Enoli Paredes, Shawn Dubin, Peter Solomon, Brett Conine, Austin Hansen, Andre Scrubb, Blake Taylor, Brandon Bielak, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. We may also see some pitchers further out (Angel Macuare, Jaime Melendez, Julio Robaina) added in. I think they will want to hang on to Hunter Brown. I do not see Houston able to get what they consider fair value from many of their main position player prospects. Leon and Lee are extremely important to Houston’s medium term plans. Pena and Barber are hurt. Nova’s stock is way down. I could see Toro traded. And the guys who have broken out this season (Perez, McKenna, Barefoot, Meyers, etc.) may be sold high if a team really likes them.
If the Astros go over the tax, should we consider it a good sign for Correa - a signal that they worry less about the qualifying offer penalties?
Correas yearly salary isn't an issue.We could very easily fit him in under the tax for the next few years. The long term risk is the issue.
That’s not my point - I’m aware of the annual budget limits and upcoming fall-offs. My point is that if we offer CC a QO which he rejects next winter, we get better compensation picks if we aren’t over the tax this year. (Same for JV.) That is why our comp pick for Springer this year is only fourth round. Given our lost picks, better consolation picks carry real value. I think that is the primary reason they are trying to stay under the limit - moreso than the tax itself. So, my hope is that if they choose to go over the limit this year, that is a signal that they are slightly less afraid of losing him and Verlander.
Buyers and sellers should be pretty solidified by now but they really aren’t. Cleveland, Mariners, and Angels are really the only AL teams that should be on the fence; I suspect all 3 will be “soft sellers”, meaning they’ll trade away pending free agents but avoid shopping multi year assets. Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Twins, and Orioles are all firmly in sell mode. The NL is muddier. The Snakes, Rockies, Pirates, and Marlins are firm sellers. The Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Phillies, Braves, and Nats all have very low playoff odds but are still within striking distance in their division, and none of them profile as teams ready to start a tear-down. Regardless, at this point I will be a little disappointed if the Astros do not come away with one of these 5 proven late inning arms (in order of preference): Craig Kimbrel Trevor Rogers Raisel Iglesias Scott Barlow Ian Kennedy
Richard Rodriguez, Kendall Graveman, Andrew Chafin, and Daniel Hudson also work for me.... Mychal Givens wouldn't bother me either. He has a 1.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP outside Coors Fields.
Just for fun (highly unlikely due to the prospect cost but would be a fun way to say F- you to the rest of the league): Astros get: C- Salvador Perez CF- Whit Merrifield RP- Scott Barlow Royals get: C- Korey Lee SP- Forrest Whitley CF- Myles Straw RP- Enoli Paredes SS- Freudis Nova While this trade would certainly hurt, you get Perez under team control thru 2025, Merrifield thru 2024, and Barlow thru 2024. It would actually probably take even more for the Royals to move all 3 at once, honestly. It would be cool to trot this lineup out in the playoffs though: 2B- Altuve LF- Brantley 3B- Bregman DH- Alvarez SS- Correa RF- Tucker C- Perez 1B- Yuli CF- Merrifield Just unfair and Yankee and Dodger fans would lose their ****. Something fun while we wait for the ‘Stros to crank back up as the trade deadline approaches.
If the Astros are willing to deal that package and take on that amount of money, I'd rather they talk with the Cubs on Kimbrel and Contreras, and use the long term money from Perez on bridging the gap between what Correa wants and the Astros are willing to pay.
The chances of keeping Correa is slim to none because of his price. The writing has been on the wall since the beginning of the season. We are literally the favorite in the AL to get to the WS, we need to go all in because we will be weaker next season with the loss of Greinke and Correa. Also, do you see anyone other than Alvarez and Tucker that will play better than they are currently playing. You have to strike while the iron is hot. Winning a WS will give Crane the money to offer a bigger contract to Correa.
Astros also lose Verlander's contract. Astros should be almost as strong next year as they are this year if they keep budget the same, and don't have more injuries next season than they've had/will have this season. I'd rather trade targets either have multiple years left or be a really great rental (e.g., Kimbrel) Crane has the money to offer a bigger contract to Correa. It is about whether he wants to risk that much money on Correa for as many years as will be needed to seal the deal as well as Correa willing to sign.
Go get kimbrel or another shut down reliever. I'm definitely not comfortable with this bullpen going into potential playoffs. Let's get the 8th and 9th taken care of. I have to assume Baez will be back at some point for the 7th.
