Evan Mobley scouting report - Nate Duncan podcast

I also said Beal......

I'm taking Beal easy....

 

29% shooting from NCAA 3 point range & Sub 70% from the charity stripe says .... you are stretching the truth.

Going an entire game without taking a field goal .... Doesn't say "Alpha" to me.

Defensively he's pretty good.
Offensively he has the "potential" to be pretty good - but a whole lot has to fall into place for that to happen.

 

2003 4th pick: Chris Bosh
2007 3rd pick: Al Horford
2012 3rd pick: Bradley Beal
2014 13th pick: Zach LaVine

Jalen Green is a Beal/LaVine hybrid
Evan Mobley is a Bosh/Horford hybrid

Green's potential is a #1 scoring option but average defender

Mobley's potential is a DPOY contender with average offense

 

Mobley will be above average offensively.

His shooting form is good and will improve FT and 3P.

 

Great breakdown on who should be picked #2.

The "bad faith" argument on it's own is worth the read.

 

Mobley had .624 true shooting percentage last year -- sit down with your cherry picked shooting stats argument. There is an enormous body of statistical work that has been presented by me and others that demonstrate Mobley's offensive and defensive capabilities. Defensively you say he's "pretty good"? Objectively, using statistics, Mobley was the best defender in the NCAA last year. That's significantly better than "pretty good". Many scouts label him the best defensive prospect in several years.

And you thinking that evaluating a player based on one game is legitimate analysis? Please go back to watching Jalen Green Youtube dunk reels.

 

Something to be mindful of is the length of development versus rookie contract length.

The Rockets realistically only have 4 years to make the call on Mobley, and for a major unicorn like Mobley, 4 years may not be nearly enough time to properly evaluate him as a player.

If in 4 years, Mobley is averaging 14/7, but because of his unicorn status", some desperate team throws the max at him. Do you match and be locked in for half a decade?

This is the biggest issue whenever the discussion of major project players come up. The length of time it takes to see them flourish may realistically be longer than their rookie contract.

 

Rockets should have enough info after 4 years…no team is throwing a max deal at a big that averaged just 14 and 7

Green’s comps are Lavine and Beal, and u don’t want to look up their numbers for the 1st 4 years of their career because they are very mediocre and pedestrian.

 

Al Horford is only 6’9…he doesn’t have Mobley’s height, length, or athleticism

Make Al Horford 7 ft tall with a 7’4 wingspan plus give him more athleticism, and is he still the same Al Horford we’ve come to know?

 

Go back and look for yourself. But to give you an example in 2009 Memphis picked Hasheem Thabeet over James Harden. I was a bad pick then. It's even a worse pick now. Then of course going back further you have the infamous Portland picking Sam Bowe over Michael Jordan because they wanted a center.

Bigs at a clear number one are like AD, Shaq, Zion, etc. Because those are the unicorns.

I gave you an example of what I'm talking about . How about you show me one big picked at #2 that was more than a role player.

 

Many players receive a max contract for worse stats than 14/7. Parson and Harrison Barnes are two examples.

There's no doubt that the same issue can be applied to Green as well, but the big difference is Green is a projected elite scorer, and elite scorers in the league is always worth the max. So the question after 4 years with Green is will he continue to improve as a scorer.

Mobley is a different story, because he is pretty much jack of all trades. Like Parsons and Barnes, they give you a bit of everything, but not really elite at anything. You throw them the max if you have a missing piece to a championship team, but you don't throw them the max if you need a number 1 guy.

 

Barnes and Parsons aren’t big men tho. Which big men in today’s NBA are being given max contracts for 14 and 7 averages? Maybe if he’s 1 of the best defensive forces in the league as well.

Beal made a huge jump after year 4, but many guys don’t. I doubt many were thinking that Beal was on the cusp of being a premier scorer after year 4 even tho he was the 3rd overall pick and drafted because of his scoring. If Jalen Green had Beal or Lavine’s 1st 4 years here, no one would be saying he could be worth a max deal after his rookie contract. Most of CF would be calling him a 1-dimensional bust.

jack of all trades is what Mobley is now…no one here knows how much his shooting will develop or just how good his defense will end up being

not sure why “length of time to flourish may be longer than their rookie contract” is a knock for Mobley when Green’s 2 most widely used comps were mediocre 1-dimensional players by the time their rookie deals were up

 

Sounds like Evan Mobley should be the unquestioned #1 pick in this draft huh?

 

Al Horford because of how he helps the team overall and contributes to winning.

Not really impressed with athleticism if its only to get points.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ense-picks-ben-mclemore-nerlens-noel/2454539/

https://hoopshabit.com/2013/06/24/nba-draft-2013-mock-draft-final/

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/22/4355884/nba-mock-draft-2013-nerlens-noel-cavaliers

https://pistonpowered.com/2013/06/26/2013-nba-draft-final-mock-draft/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1685277-2013-nba-mock-draft-last-minute-picks-and-predictions

 

And he ended up going to 7th and wasn’t one of the comparisons listed.

You just made up the comparison, which is fine. That’s fine you disagree that Mobley is more high variance, but i at least have an in depth draft evaluation that backs that notion.