Mobley just has the highest variance of outcomes...... He could end up being the best talent of the draft or he could end up as someone you take in the late lottery. That's too much risk for me. I'm still 60/40 Green.
Mobley is all raw talent, he CAN be amazing and he CAN be playing in europe like D-Mo in 3 years. I feel like he will have a lot of learning to do to get to his peak. Basketball life and just growing into a man. Jalen Green has been groomed for this moment for a long time. He has been around Professional ballers for many years and just hoops all day. He knows what it takes to get to that level and wants it.
I listened to the entire breakdown of Mobley. It sounded to me like they were saying they expected him to be on the Ayton/JJJ level if nothing changed. At the same time, they said that if his jump shot improved it would unlock his offense and if his body improved (strength or agility) it would unlock his defense. So my take away was if he does nothing than he is on the level of the #1 and #4 picks from 3 years ago but if he does improve his jump shot or adds functional weight then he would move up a rung to the ADs and KATs of the world. I think it is a good bet that one of those things happens. If you trust this analysis I think you see Mobley as a KAT/AD level prospect.
Replying to Clutch's comment. I think they're comparing Mobley to what those guys were as prospects, i.e. coming into the draft. It's funny cause I remember that leading up to that draft, defense was KAT's calling card. He was projected to be an elite defensive big and that's what gave him the edge as number 1. In pure offense, Okafor was supposed to be superior. It's funny how player development can shake out and how players can turn out to be the exact opposite of what they're projected to be pre-draft. Edit: For reference. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sb...geles-lakers-karl-anthony-towns-jahlil-okafor Shoutout to pre-Ringer KoC.
True but remember that the year prior, the Wolves brought back KG to "instill toughness and defense" to their young players. Also, KAT played with Thibs and Jimmy and still didn't improve as a defender. Sometimes, stuff just doesn't translate I guess.
Mobley has talent out the wazoo, but I'm not sure what position he'll play in the NBA. People have him pegged at the 5 if he gains weight, but he's not particularly strong and there's no guarantee that's his position even if he does. DMo went from 220lbs to 250lbs and still was not strong enough to play the 5. Same with defensively minded JJJ in Memphis.
I'm 70/30 pro Mobley right now but I agree that he's definitely high risk compared to Cade, Green, or Suggs. I just don't really mind either way because I think the 2022 draft is way better than this one... Feast or famine either way, don't give me just good enough.
I hope we get a similarly critical analysis of Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham. None of these guys are anywhere close to a finished product. The big question is whether or not we can find predictive factors to see if they will apply themselves to be their best, or if injury concerns or other life issues get in the way.
Yeah, I mean just a few minutes into the conversation and he starts talking about **** that just doesn’t matter! “Is he a 4 or a 5?” Should not be in the discussion at all! He’s a big that can likely fit with other bigs due to a high level of versatility on both sides of the ball! “Jokic is going to kill him!” Yeah Jokic kills everyone! Is being able to shut down the MVP a standard we should hold prospects to!? Nate Duncan is the type of guy that gives analytics a bad rap. He overthinks and over analyses everything just so he can have something to talk about on his podcast because he can’t pull real information by simply watching the games! I don’t think I can finish this podcast lol
All of this gives me a really bad feeling. When I was young, I focused on what young players could do, or might be able to do, athletically. Over the years, I've learned that at the elite level, personality makes all the difference. I keep thinking of PJ vs. Clint, heart vs. sloth, in the ECF. These Mobley reviews give off major Clint vibes.
Is Mobley a #1-#2 guy on a championship team? I think it comes down to how big an impact you believe he will make on the defensive side. I am not talking about one on one, but as a team defender. Bosh was a good one on one defender and a solid team defender but he wasn't keeping anyone out of the paint and even on close outs he had some issues. The problem with KAT isn't on the offensive end of the court, but on the defensive side. As for Bam, he doesn't stretch the court and isn't a threat at all from 3. He has worked hard on his offense but he can still be stopped. I don't have a strong opinion on who the Rockets should take at this point..... but I will say that the limitations that Green has are often over looked. He has defensive and playmaking limitations.
Green is smart and mature. The issue with him is his ability to see (or not see) the floor before a play develops and there are some questions athletically with his ability to move side to side. He isn't an athlete like Carter or McGrady or some of the other former top prospects, but he certainly has the athletic ability of someone like a Bradley Beal or some others in that class. Those in the NBA that have seen his work ethic have a high opinion of him as a professional. I am fine taking Green at #2, and may even prefer him to Mobley.... both have Hall of Fame upside if they develop and work hard.
I didn't agree when he said Jokic is going to kill him. I do think Mobley is a secondary scorer and a primary defender. It looks great in theory, but will he eventually take the bull by the horns if and when he bulks up? He is more of a face up scorer, who needs to improve his jump hook and back to the basket game. He has the tools to get better. My only real concern with him, is his inability to handle physical contact even against smaller players. At times, he does relish the challenge but I don't see consistency in him. I'm also aware that it takes more time for a big to develop versus a guard. Post script: We just don't know what all these guys are doing leading up to the draft. Obviously, they want to avoid injuries before signing a big contract, but how will they cope in the NBA? I'm only sold on Cade. He is undoubtedly the most polished and most mature of them all. I don't think he will drop to number 2.
