Majority of Americans Don't Approve of Job Bush is Doing, Say War Was a Mistake.

Because I haven't heard anything to the contrary. Have you?

You are correct. He is nothing but a puppet and a minipulated figurehead who specialized in nothing but business failures. I stand corrected.

 

Faos:

Of course there are going to be some surprises with a new president. Just check my signature. But no one responding to these polls is guaranteeing a result. They're answering the question 'who do you think would do better on these issues.' Seeing that Kerry's got about a 35 year long public record, a website with his platform on it and has been giving speeches about what he'd do in office for several months, and given that they've seen how Bush has handled those issues over the last three and a half years, I'd say they've got enough to form an opinion.

Again, it sounds like your take here boils down to 'we shouldn't guess at how a candidate will handle an issue because we can never know until he's in office.' In other words, we can only guess at how someone would preside once he's been president. To some degree that's true -- Bush had a lot of people convinced he was interested in bipartisanship, compassionate conservatism, leaving no child behind, a more humble foreign policy, restoring honor and dignity to the WH, etc. and none of those things was true, so I do see your point.

But considering that the Bush team now argues deficits are good and Kerry says they're bad, I think people can make an educated guess as to which will best represent their feelings about deficits.

Regardless of any of this, it's not Kerry's record or platform that matters most. Re-election campaigns are a referendum on the incumbent and we have plenty of evidence as to how he'll be as president. Given that, the only surprise is that Kerry's numbers aren't even higher.

 

Bush job approval rating down to 42% --- approval rating on Iraq down to 35%

Bush approval rating hits new low, Iraq support falling away: poll

Bush fading fast

 

All excellent points, BJ.

I'm just saying other than answering the typical GWB approval (or lack of) ratings or "Who would you vote for today" polls they really don't have much substance to them. My purspose was to slam polls in general. (Anyone who has seen some of the polls on channel 2 or other local stations in Houston would probably agree.)

 

I hear you Faos. I'm wary of polls too. Just not for the reasons you've mentioned (like not knowing how a guy will govern after a 35 year record).

To use a GARM analogy, we don't hold Doc Rocket or Clutch or anyone to the stuff they hear actually happening. If something falls through, we don't say oh well, you can't trust what Doc posts. Anything can happen between them hearing news and contracts being signed, but we value the information as we know it to be a pretty accurate account of what's going on when they hear it. Same with polls.

 

Weren't many GW Bush supporters saying back in the late 90's that Presidents have litte impact on job creation?

 

I think this cartoon states why GW Bush is still tied with Kerry even while approval of Iraq is going down.

http://www.workingforchange.com/comic.cfm?itemid=16926

 

I have said it before and i will say it again. I am a member of the anyone but Bush club.

 

Another article about Bush in trouble...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HoustonChronicle.com -- http://www.HoustonChronicle.com | Section: Politics

May 14, 2004, 8:45PM

Bush losing ground in swing states

By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
New York Times

WEBSTER GROVES, Mo. -- Like many people in this Republican-leaning, affluent suburb of St. Louis, Sharyl Groves is wrestling with whom to support in this year's presidential election.

She describes herself as disappointed with President Bush, whom she voted for in 2000, concerned about the sluggish economy and convinced that the administration has been dishonest about Iraq. The problem is, she admits, she has no real sense of Sen. John Kerry, the probable Democratic challenger, despite the recent spate of advertising that has started here.

"It's terrible, I'm completely undecided!" said Groves, 37, an executive assistant, stopping in her red convertible at a drive-through bank machine here. "I'm not quite mad enough to say I wouldn't vote for Bush. But Kerry just hasn't made enough of an impression for me to say he's the one. I don't know where he stands on issues. He hasn't made a negative impression, he's made no impression at all."

Places like this "swing" town will probably decide the election. Minds are still open here, and many voters are struggling with the choice -- between the candidate they know, Bush, and the one they don't, Kerry; between the urge to rally behind a leader in wartime and a desire for change; between sadness over American lives lost in a conflict far away and anger over abortion here at home. Most important, they are waiting for more information on a challenger they say they do not know.

A majority of Americans now say they believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, and a Pew Poll last week found that "public satisfaction with national conditions" had fallen to an eight-year low of 33 percent. More than 60 percent in some other polls disapprove of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and the economy.

Voters' growing disapproval of administration policies is an early warning sign that the incumbent may be in deep trouble, experts say.

In June 1980, President Jimmy Carter had an approval rating of only 33 percent, but polls still showed him in a statistical dead heat with Ronald Reagan. In 1992, when President George Bush's approval rating was 38 percent, he was still neck and neck with challenger Bill Clinton in early summer. Both incumbents lost by large numbers.

 

And a new poll in a critical swing state, Ohio, is bad news for Bush...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HoustonChronicle.com -- http://www.HoustonChronicle.com | Section: Politics

May 15, 2004, 5:19AM

Poll: Kerry moves ahead of Bush in critical Ohio

Associated Press
RESOURCES
LATEST IN
PRESIDENTIAL RACE:

WASHINGTON -- Democrat John Kerry has edged ahead of President Bush in the key swing state of Ohio in a three-way matchup that includes independent Ralph Nader, a poll released Thursday found.

Kerry was at 49 percent, Bush at 42 percent and Nader at 2 percent in an American Research Group poll. Seven percent of the voters in the poll said they were undecided.

In a two-way matchup, Kerry led Bush by 50 percent to 43 percent.

The Ohio results come as Bush is registering some of the lowest ratings of his presidency in national polls and as the Iraq prisoner abuse scandal has the White House on the defensive.

The poll found that slightly more voters have a favorable view of Kerry, 44 percent, than unfavorable, 36 percent. A majority, 52 percent, had an unfavorable view of Bush. Almost two-thirds, 63 percent, had an unfavorable view of Nader.

Ohio is one of several states in the region that have lost manufacturing jobs under Bush, while Kerry has made the jobs issue central to his campaign.

Bush won Ohio in 2000 by 4.4 percentage points.

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken May 10-12 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


ON THE INTERNET American Research Group www.americanresearchgroup.com

 

Emigrating to Russia?

 

Newsweek Poll: Bad Days for Bush
With news from Iraq becoming ever bleaker, the president’s numbers are way down. Still, he hasn’t lost ground to John Kerry

The moment to strike? The Democrat, on his campaign plane Friday
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Updated: 1:06 p.m. ET May 15, 2004May 15 -

As his administration grapples with the fallout from the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, President George W. Bush’s approval ratings have dropped to 42 percent, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll, a low for his presidency. Fifty-seven percent say they disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq. And 62 percent say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, a number that has been steadily increasing since April, 2003, when it was 41 percent.

Still, when pitted in a hypothetical two-way race with Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Bush holds his own. Forty-five percent of Americans say they would vote for Bush; 46 percent say they would support Kerry and 9 percent remain undecided.

But there’s little doubt that Bush is losing ground among the public for his policies in Iraq. With images of naked and shackled prisoners still fresh in their minds, the 35 percent of the public that approve of the handling the war in Iraq represents a nine-point drop over last month. And the number of those who think the United States did the right thing in declaring war on Iraq in the first place has fallen 11-points from December, to 51 percent.

Still, the public remains unwilling to abandon the mission in Iraq. Fifty-seven percent say the United States can still achieve its goals in Iraq, though for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, a majority, 54 percent, say they are either "not too" or "not at all" confident that the U.S. will be able establish a stable government in Iraq.

"You are doing a superb job," Bush said in his first public comments to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as the Abu Ghraib scandal was unfolding. "You are a strong secretary of defense, and our nation owes you a debt of gratitude." Others agree: a majority (57 percent) do not feel that Rumsfeld should be removed from his job (30 percent feel he should go). Americans are split over whether the abuse of Iraqi prisoners was a case of low-ranking soldiers acting on their own (36 percent) or authorized by higher-ups (45 percent). Nineteen percent say they don’t know.

And with emotions still raw over the beheading of Nick Berg, a young American civilian in Iraq, Americans are split over whether his murder vindicates the war or repudiates it: Forty-three percent of those polled felt his killing was a reminder of the brutality of the enemy and proof that fighting is the right tack. But 38 percent feel the assassination was evidence that Americans are becoming targets abroad as a direct result of Bush’s policies.

But Kerry has been unable to leverage increasing discomfort over Bush’s Iraq policies into a real lead over the president. Although Kerry enjoyed a statistical advantage-a seven-point spread-over Bush last month, the NEWSWEEK poll shows a dead heat in a two-way race between Bush and Kerry. Adding independent candidate Ralph Nader to the race does little to change the dynamics: Forty-two percent would vote for Bush, 43 percent for Kerry and 5 percent Nader. While overall support for Bush remains steady, just 24 percent of registered voters say they support him "strongly," a four-point drop over last month. The percentage of voters who support Kerry "strongly" remains steady at 22 percent.

Kerry does hold a strong statistical lead over Bush among women. In a three-way trial heat, 38 percent of women would cast their vote for Bush; 45 percent say they would support Kerry.

Both the president and his presumptive challenger enjoy similar favorability ratings-nearly half of all voters view both men favorably (47 percent for Kerry and 46 percent), but more have an "unfavorable" view of Bush (46 percent) than do of the senator from Massachusetts (36 percent). That may be because fewer people feel like they know Kerry-14 percent of those polled offered no opinion of the senator, nearly twice the number for Bush (8 percent). Looking forward, Kerry may have difficulty using the public’s war malaise to his political advantage. A majority (54 percent) of Americans feel it would be inappropriate for him to criticize the president while U.S. troops were fighting abroad.

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18 and older May 13 and 14 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

I guess this goes here as well as anywhere. An update from a friend of Josh Marshalls in Iraq-

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/


As I said earlier this morning, here's the latest update from my friend in Iraq, a retired military intelligence officer, now working as a security contractor in Iraq ...

Hey Josh,
Sorry about the delay but I have been out on the streets more than usual these days despite the micro-Intifada in the South.

Let me answer your questions:

Q1. From on the ground, how would you rate the effects of Abu Ghraib on the population at large and on the morale of Iraqis who are at the moment working with us?

A1: Abu Ghuraib just confirmed what we have been hearing here for a long time. I am amazed that the ICRC didn't push this forcefully. It is very easy to find people who have been in the prison and could make statements to that effect. What I am sure amazed the ICRC was the callousness of the Bush administration blowing off eye-witness testimony of ICRC delegates in the prison. It had to be done with pictures and I applaud and honor the men who blew the whistle ... If I was the NCOIC of that place I would have been filing courts martial papers just to make sure it was indestructibly documented that things were going on ... Someone obviously did something official for General Taguba to be sent there.

The Iraqi people, even my 150 staff think the Americans are essentially not welcome anymore. They fear for their security but would rather go through a cataclysm with a new Iraqi police and army as their security force, rather than be occupied by the Americans. Then they could work through the system and know that their security was in their hands ... Trust me I am training 40 Iraqi bodyguards and the demand is getting serious. Listen Josh, EVERYONE outside of the Green Zone, Iraqis Westerners and Americans alike refer to the CPA and the US Army as "The AMERICANS" as if they were a third-party nation.

No one sees them as part of the solution anymore but as a foreign entity that does as it likes and pisses everybody off in the process. The thinking in the usually suspicious Iraqi mind is that this is still being staged to seize control of their oil... Well that's been done but now they think the domestic troubles like the bad electricity (3 hours on, three hours off) the major Dysentery outbreak in the tap water this week (all of us have been ill due to our cooks washing with tap water) and the inability to drive down the street without having a Hummvee point rifles at you (or worse yet explode next to you) is punishment or, more accurately, incompetence.

Abu Ghuraib was always part of their belief that the Bush Administration would "do anything" to defeat the Baathists. One guy said "you hired the Baathist Intelligence back and now you are doing as they are doing." Well that's not exactly true. We're more open about it. But as long as we are seen as occupiers we will never earn the trust of the Iraqi people. Turning over in a month to a new set of lackeys (here they call them Lougies ... Iraqi Arabic for "fawning Brown-noser") and asking them to invite us to stay and continue our ways is absolutely laughed at.

Q2. I’ve heard rumors that the DOD had instructed Halliburton or other contractors to cut off internet access to troops, at least for all but non-essential stuff. Heard anything about that?

A2: No, Internet seems to be humming along ... Now, at some of the more remote field camps they may have them off but not at the CPA. That place would shut down without Internet because they NEVER leave the Green Zone.

Q3. Was any of the AbuG stuff known on the street, as it were? Was this stuff an open secret, even if people hadn't seen the pics?

A3: As I said above, it was an open secret because guys were being released and complaining ... The ICRC was inspecting the place and dropping hints. Al Jazeera had done pieces on torture there and had interviewed people. Here in Iraq it was an anecdotal-evidence-supported ASSUMPTION. Until confirmed by photos we didn't know the depth of it. Remember, they chose a really high ranking General (Taguba) to documented this, which means it burned hot in the craw at Central Command when they found out it was true. Taguba showing up meant that they probably intended to court martial or dismiss the General in charge. Also it is no secret that ON THE STREET the US Army was and remains openly kicking Iraqi asses whenever and wherever they want to.

About the Army - Man, it hurts my heart to write this about an institution I dearly love but this army is completely dysfunctional, angry and is near losing its honor. We are back to the Army of 1968. I knew we were finished when I had a soldier point his Squad Automatic Weapons at me and my bodyguard detail for driving down the street when he decided he would cross the street in the middle of rush hour traffic (which was moving at about 70 MPH) ... He made it clear to any and all that he was preparing to shoot drivers who did not stop for his jaunt because speeding cars are "threats."

I also once had a soldier from a squad of Florida National Guard reservists raise weapons and kick the door panel of a clearly marked CPA security vehicle (big American flag in the windshield of a $150,000 armored Land Cruiser) because they wanted us to back away from them so they could change a tire ... as far as they were concerned WE (non-soldiers) were equally the enemy as any Iraqi.

Unlike the wars of the past 20 years where the Army encouraged (needed) soldiers, NGOs, allies and civil organizations to work together to resolve matters and return to normal society, the US Forces only trust themselves here and that means they set their own limits and tolerances. Abu Ghuraib are good examples of that limit. I told a Journalist the other day that these kids here are being told that they are chasing Al Qaeda in the War on Terrorism so they think everyone at Abu Ghuraib had something to do with 9/11. So they were encouraged to make them pay. These kids thought they were going to be honored for hunting terrorists.

Best, [Name Suppressed]



More soon.

 

That Josh post is scary and probably deserves a thread of its own, particularly the comments the guy makes about our military turning inward.

In more polling news, here's Ryan Lizza on Zogby...
________________

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE NEW ZOGBY POLL: Bush's job approval is down to 42 percent. His approval on Iraq is down to 36 percent. Kerry is up by five points in the horserace (47-42). Right track/wrong track is at 54/40. The percentage who say it's "time for someone new" is at 53 percent. Kerry favorability is at 55 percent. Bush favorability is at 52 percent. Bush and Kerry are tied in the red states (45-45).

Kerry leads in the Blue states (49-38), the East (53-36), the West (45-44), the central Great Lakes (47-41), and among progressives, (81-12), liberals (79-12), moderates (55-30), Hispanics (59-39), African-Americans (85-6), Democrats (84-9), and Independents (46-37).

Bush leads in the South (47-43) and among conservatives (71-19), Whites (46-42), Asians (63-37), Republicans (81-8), and Libertarians (80-0). Not exactly a majority coalition.

 

I take part in regular Harris online polls and they have an instant data thing you can click after you finish.

Anyways, the results for:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush has handled his job as president?
Disapprove: 50.20
Approve: 49.80

But then the results for:

If the election were held today, how likely would you be to vote for George W. Bush?

Unlikely: 53.30
Likely: 46.70

What's with the discrepancy? People who approve of Bush's handling but would not be likely to vote for him? IIRC the unlikely/likely question had four or five different levels of reply so it seems kind of odd that they didn't let that get reflected in the answer but maybe I am remembering wrong.