I wouldn’t expect him until midway thru next season earliest. Best case these last 2 weeks are legit and he’s an elite prospect in the Springer/Correa/Bregman line, and they make room for him after the service time cutoff next season, although with the next CBA that may not be an issue and they may end up having to trade Castro next offseason to make room.
He obviously needs to get the 6.93 walks per nine down but the 14.59 strikeouts per nine along with the 3.75 FIP and 3.49 xFIP definitely get me excited about his future.
They also have Maldy next season and you know the Astros aren’t going to quit their Maldy habit that easily. I don’t see room for him until 2023.
Barring the rules changing in the CBA or injuries, I expect Lee to be a September call up next season.
He isn't rule 5 eligible until December of '22, and I doubt they add him early with their current 40 man crunch. So I doubt that happens, barring an injury as you said. And with the new rules that they are only allowed only 2 additional people to call up, that works against him being called up in Sept next year also.
If Lee's bat keeps looking as strong as it does now I don't see the Astros keeping him down most of next season. He can always gets PA at DH and 1B if they want to ease him in.
They've shown they're willing to take a weak bat at C as long as the non-bat skills are high. I could see them keeping him down to get regular playing time, so he can work on the non-bat stuff. The Stros don't particularly need another good bat rotating through DH/1B.
I miss the buzz of when a prospect might be called up. So many over the past 5 seasons: Correa/ Kemp, Alejandro/Yuli, Teoscar, Tucker/Alvarez. The Latin fever pitching just came out of nowhere. Hey guys, Verlander is out for the season here are these new guys enjoy. Valdez, I know you have a 69 ERA but you're going to become one of Aces of the entire league. Then there was the Forest Whitley hype that covered 2017-2019 and the stud we could get in return if included in a trade. It's said the Astros farm system is depleted but these guys, like Toro, are all major league contributors and can stick around on any team. So what that there isn't a no.1 and no 2 mlb rated prospect there are diamonds all over the place.
The problem with trading minor leaguers, you never know with 100% certainty who will bust and who will be good. There were a lot of Whitley/Tucker and Martes/Tucker deals proposed on this board. Garcia or Javier could easily have been filler in a trade that sent out Whitley. Would potentially dealing Tucker, Garcia, or Javier been worth ensuring Whitley wasn't a bust while still in the Astros organization? Caveat: I have a very risk-adverse personality over the long haul, though I am fine with a lot of perceived risky moves in the short term. Losing a small hand in poker doesn't matter to me when I am winning the big pots more than others.
It wouldn't be so much about what we need next season, as much as it would be about getting him ready to be the full time starter in 23. Getting that first dose of major league pitching could be a huge help in that regard. He could also learn a lot "holding a clipboard" as the backup catcher. This day and age there is a ton of information to digest, particularly for catchers. He could be a guy that requires being sent down again before he's ready. Also just because they are willing to go with glove only catchers, doesn't mean they want to. He may flat out be our best option behind the plate. They'll only really know once the MLB pitchers get to work with him a little.
Besides for the 1B/DH part, I see your point for the most part. Though, Castro has been an above average hitting catcher since 2019 when he started hitting the ball harder, and he still can't get into as many games as one would expect. A lot of baseball until 2022 is done. There will likely be a time when Lee gets work due to an injury, and he will get his chance to prove it then.
Lee being the 3rd catcher next season is perfect as it will give him time to refine his game calling and get used to catching high quality pitching in AAA (and during fill-in stints in the majors). Him taking over as the everyday catcher in 2023 is a very reasonable timeline. Here’s my guess for internal fill-ins for the current roster: C Lee (2023) 1B Matijevic (2023, Jones, Toro are also options to replace Gurriel) 2B Lorenzo (2025, obviously a lot can change there) SS TBD (Astros need a long term solution, as I don’t see Pena’s bat or Leon’s defense as quite good enough at this point, and Nova has been a bust) 3B Perez (2025, although I could see them extending Bregman again) RF Tucker will be extended CF Straw is under control thru 2025, too far away LF Leon (2023, I think Leon will end up as Brantleys replacement) DH Alvarez will be extended UT Pena (2023) BC Papierski (2023) OF McCormick is under control thru 2026, too far away Astros should be pretty good on offense thru the rest of this decade, provided they find a good answer at SS.
You think a September call up in 2022 is too early when he becomes rule 5 eligible 3 months later? From the post you responded to: "Barring the rules changing in the CBA or injuries, I expect Lee to be a September call up next season".
Right. But if you think Straw is legit in CF and Leon can’t handle SS, where do you play him? No issue with switching Tucker and Leon.
Unless Straw show a lot more, he is not a guy you worry about replacing. If Straw somehow shows himself to be an OBP monster, then I would move him to left before I would waste an 80 grade arm there. Straw has also shown himself to be positionally flexible.
Straw is changing the book on him pretty quickly. He now projects to be a 2.2 fwar player in his first full season as a starter and that’s with him being a AAAA level performer for the first month. He could end up as a perennial 2.5-3.5 win player (a lesser Kevin Kiermaier) over the next 4-5 years. That’s not really a guy you move on a whim. Having a cannon arm in LF is not some huge crime. But the more likely outcome would be Tucker moves to LF and Leon goes to right.
