Springer/Reddick vs Tucker/Straw

Replacement level is usually done as a total player. When looking at defense only, the positional adjustment is usually included as playing CF below average relative to other CFs still adds value unless atrociously bad, and replacement level is about whether a player is adding value or not. Straw for his career has been above replacement level overall, but still below average. As I don't think Straw is an above average replacement level hitter/offensive player, I take calling Straw as replacement level defensively as a bias.

The biggest issue with him is he adds no pop which means he has to be nearly perfect every where else to be even an average player. As he isn't perfect everywhere else, he's better suited for 4th OF. Though if the Astros trade for a CF, it will likely need to be someone at least an average starter as despite being this season's whipping boy...he's not completely the suckiest guy that's ever sucked.

 

He's a classic case of a .300 hitting minor leaguer with zero pop - those guys tend to get swallowed up by major league pitchers who can pitch unafraid of a powerless bat.

What I have been surprised about is that he doesn't make full use of his speed on the basepaths or in the field. He's got a physical gift that he doesn't take advantage of, because he makes too many mistakes. I don't accept that he's new - he's been playing centerfield since he was drafted in 2015 - I'm sure he played center in high school, college too. He's been running the bases forever. You can't be a "speed and defense only" player who's only average, or slightly above, on both. Adam Everett was a bad hitter, but his glove was elite. Michael Bourn was gold glove on defense and a stolen base weapon on offense.

 

If you want to say he has zero power, leave it at that.
If you then say he doesn't get on base, well that's just not true as a single and a walk are on base.

 

I don't disagree. Straw does a lot of things okay to well (not including pop) even if he needs speed to cover up on some skill. When Straw gets criticized, it seems to me to be on things other than his power.

Everett and Bourn were average or better players in their peaks. Getting an average player instead of Straw would be fine. Swapping out Straw for another below average player that may be a smidge better isn't going to help much.

 

Sure why not? We now have given Straw his shot. Give this kid a chance until the all-star break unless something falls in your lap

 

If dissecting every aspect of Miles Straw is worth enough discussion for multiple pages on an off-day… this Astros team is pretty freakin good.

FWIW, he has improved in the field (especially running back on balls). In other parts of the game, he still feels like he’s an world-class track athlete that learned how to play baseball.

 

Straw gets a lot of hate and rightfully so but it is good to see him trending in the right direction:

OBP by month

April: .289
May: .330
June: .391

Yes, June is only a 7 game sample but hopefully he can keep trending the right direction.

 

2020 Springer/Reddick .899/.693
2021 Tucker/Straw .832/.637


Tucker and Sraw have a 1.055 & .856 OPS in June.

 

Straw's OBP in the last 28 days is .384. If he can maintain this, I may have to lower my "give up on Straw" flag.

With that being said, I've always thought he could be a high OBP guy. It's his base-running and defense that's been a disappointment. To be a solid everyday starter, he needs to be better at both of these aspects. I actually think his defense has been improving as of late. Being a good defender in the majors does take some experience, so I give him some slack there. Why he's a bad base-stealer... I have no clue. He needs to be a 40 steals/season to be a solid starter.

 

He's absolutely earned continued consistent PT.

 

Is this really a reasonable expectation in todays MLB? I could see 25-30, but only a few guys a year steal 40 bases in a season and fewer repeat that feat.

 

Whats the latest on Springer? Given the Blue Jays impressive offense, one could postulate that they may have been able to spend that money elsewhere... but certainly they're going to be extremely formidable whenever he's back in their everyday lineup. Glad the Astros won't have any more games with them (until the playoffs?)

 

I was ready to cut bait but it looks like Click was smart to stick with him. He currently projects to finish the season with ~20 SB and 2.0 fwar which is pretty much the definition of “average everyday major leaguer”, although it would probably only make him rank somewhere between 15-20 in terms of MLB CF.

I have said this before but Straw was a pretty raw baseball player, so even though he’s already in his prime age, there may be some upside for him over the next couple seasons.

 

Straw is making a case that he might be capable of being the starting CF for the next 5 years. I'm not sure he can maintain his current play, but Astros could live with how he's played so far this year (like a 2nd division starter) even without Correa.

That said, McCormick is making things difficult. He's got an even smaller track record Straw. He will probably be the better hitter. It looks like he's selling out for power. I think his homer rate will regress. When that likely happens, he likely will need to be making more contact and getting more walks. Not sure about his defense long term, but it has been excellent lately.

I'm happy Astros have both of them.

 

Love to see Straw's upward trend.

In 100 PA's over the last month, he's hitting .295/.360/.420 with a 0.125 ISO and wRC+ of 125. That'll play. Definitely making a case that CF isn't a dire need yet.

Definitely an underrated storyline of the season getting active roster guys out of 12th (Straw) and 21st (McCormick) round picks. Hope Click can keep up Luhnow's record of player development.

 

Straw and McCormick were the offense last night. 2 of the 3 runs and all 3 RBIs. It does appear like the league has figured out McCormick a bit, so he’ll need to make an adjustment. Huge credit to Straw for the turnaround.

 

McCormick's swing reminds me of Bagwell. Not his stance but the load up/follow thru. Hope he can get some more at bats at the bottom of order.