I don't disagree with everything you say here, but I totally disagree that if they were going to offer him a contract they would have done it last offseason 1. As much as any free agent, Correa has a history of injuries and no doubt the Astros wanted to see how Correa could handle playing a full season 2. Coming off of the short season last year there was more uncertainty than normal last offseason. Don't forget as we went through this past offseason we really didn't know what was coming for this year attendance/money wise. 3. The upcoming CBA looms large. Right or wrong, Crane may have some strong thoughts as to where the game is going and might want to wait and see what a new CBA looks like before handing out a huge extension I can easily see a situation where Crane said "let's offer him a solid extension right now, probably one he won't take but let's offer it and see if he wants some guaranteed money right now. If he doesn't take it, and I guess he likely won't, then we can see where we are next offseason. See if he handles a full season, see how the finances look after this year, see how the youth looks and where we are...." There is just way too much in play here to say it was last offseason or nothing
Semien is a lock to receive a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays. Baez would probably get one as well. I doubt the Astros sign someone that has a qualifying offer attached unless the rules change. Maybe Toronto can continue to lose and become a seller. Then they can trade Semien to a contender and he won't have a qualifying offer attached.
Techically they are both right, but under rockboxes' premise that they have 100 million, they would be fielding a team of 8 players
I think if any of what you say is true that the rhetoric from both sides last offseason would have been dramatically different. Correa was pretty clearly insulted by Houston’s offer and gave zero indication there was discussion about circling back or that the offer was prefaced with the kinds of context you mention, which Houston certainly would have given if they thought there was any chance whatsoever they were going to try to come back later and up their offer.
Chris Taylor is likely to be QO’ed too. Best developments for Houston would be Cubs being too scared to QO Baez and Toronto trading Semien next month. Story will be traded too so it’s not outside the realm of possibility for Houston to be in on him although I wouldn’t bet on it. Going to be a very interesting (and one of the only) storyline to follow what Houston does at SS. They have money and there are a lot of good free agents but if $150M+ or any QO player is off the table, the list gets real small real quick. Personally for now I think Brandon Crawford would be a great fit on something like $25M/2yr but he might be QO’ed too at this rate. It would not be a horrible outcome for me if Aledmys Diaz was the opening day SS and they have Toro and Robel (or a cheap vet like Andrus or Simmons) on the bench. But that would only be ok if all of the following happen: -Straw keeps putting up a wRC+ >80 -Leon or Pena look like the real deal at SS in July/Aug -Houston is able to use their financial resources to improve the roster and extend their window (i.e. extensions)
Taylor might get a QO but they have a lot going on. Kershaw, Jansen, and Seager are free agents. Do they want to put 18 plus million into Taylor? Not sure, especially if they want to bring back Kershaw and Seager. Muncy and Turner also have nice bumps in pay as well.
Astros have now played the toughest schedule in all of baseball…and have the best record in the AL. Just nuts. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos 35-19 vs >= .500…also best in baseball and it isn’t even close. Next most wins is the Padres at 26-23. 8-9 vs <.500…only Rangers and Orioles have played less. Astros just need to start winning these games.
Chris Taylor is on a 2 year, 13.4 Million dollar contract. I would be surprised if he is given a QO. He wasn't offered one 2 years ago, and his production is about the same, but he now 2 years older. That said, I think he is a great target for the Astros, but my gut tells me he is going to re-sign with the Dodgers.
I am pretty sure that 2 year deal was not a free agent contract. He’s averaged 3 fwar per season over the last 5 years and he’s only 30. He is a fringe QO guy but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they tagged him.
I kind of doubt that any of us know what was, or has been, said between the two sides I would take Twitter with a grain of salt buddy And also, I don’t think they share ALL of their thoughts with each other, that would be pretty crappy negotiation tactics. Also, on the Semien type of free agents, I doubt we sign anyone that will cost us a draft pick
There is probably less than a 5% chance Taylor gets a QO Would love to hear something rational to explain why you think he would
Taylor is in his age 30 season and projections have him ending this season with 3.8 fwar. He is also a very versatile defensive player who will appeal to pretty much every team who wants to win. So a guy coming off a season as a Top 40 position player in all of baseball who can play 7 positions will have a very robust market, and those guys often receive QO’s. It’s far from a slam dunk, but I am pretty sure those players get QO’ed >5% of the time.
Time will tell I suppose Taylor does a good job defensively in the middle infield and of, also gets on base well. He is a very nice player Count me among those who would be shocked to see the Dodgers give him 20 million next year
Would I rather have a Mike Trout over on centerfield? Probably. Props to Straw though. He seems to be taking significant strides in his approach and avoiding being an automatic strike victim. For all Centerfielders in the AL he ranks 4th in hits, 3rd in walks, 3rd in stolen bases, 4th in OBP, yeah you know me. He gets on base.
His defense has improved. With this lineup, that’s really all that I cared about. His hitting has been a bonus, but it is still of the very light variety and he would still likely be lifted for a PH in a must-score spot.
Now that Straw is a viable offensive player (not to mention guys like McCormick and Toro and Castro are hitting well) the Astros have pretty much the indisputable best offense in baseball. If their pitching holds up (6 guys pitching like #2-3 SP) and they add a good bullpen arm, they have to be considered the favorite to win the World Series. What’s awesome is they really only stand to lose Correa and Greinke next season, which they should have ~$50M in payroll to use to replace them.
I don't watch the Dodgers too much, but he's basically vintage Marwin. You can give a rest day to almost anyone and still have an above average starter at every position. If Dodgers don't give him a QO, I'd hope the Astros add a SS plus him if I could get over the Dodger hypocrisy. If for nothing else, it would hopefully stop people from complaining about Dusty giving a guy a rest day.
Love me some Marwin but Taylor has been a significantly more valuable player than Marwin was. Taylor has also been much more consistent. If you take out Marwin’s standout 2017 season he was just a decent utility guy. Taylor has put up above average everyday player to star level performance every season. A Josh Reddick type of contract (somewhere between $40M/3yrs and $70M/5yrs) seems like a fair range for his next contract. If he’s valued at the lower end of that, he’s probably not worth a QO but at the higher end he surely is. If Im the Dodgers, I probably extend the QO to Taylor as a hedge against losing Seager and not getting one of the other 2 good SS. The angels are another team to keep in mind for Correa/Seager/Story. If they added one of them and an ace pitcher, they’d be a contender. And they probably have the money now that they’re out from under Pujols’ contract.
Since they are under the tax this year and won't have to pay repeater, I still see them making a play. They have never been shy about spending money on a position of need and Torres is not only a below average hitter, he's one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game.
