In the original post I said if Correa thinks he will stay healthy this year it’s in his best interest to reject the contract. I think both the Astros and Correa have acted very rationally to this point and I don’t expect the Astros thought Correa was going to accept. If he stays healthy I expect they will give him a much bigger offer. Whether it will be large enough I don’t know. If Correa thought he was going to stay healthy, he wasn’t going to accept any discount even a smaller one. I also don’t blame the Astros for wanting to see a full healthy season before making their best offer.
Good for Springer, but his contract was a bad one (for the Jays), and I’m glad the Astros didn’t offer him the same. I said in my original post that it was in Correa’s interest not to sign it. I expect the Astros thought there was almost no chance he would sign it, but that doesn’t mean it was comical. Seeing the year play out was in both parties interest and still is.
Offering a lowball contract that you know the player won't sign is comical - it does nothing except piss off the player, which it did. It was even worse when they made the 2nd offer which was basically just as dumb. There was no upside to it. If the Astros wanted to see the year play out, just be honest about that - at least Correa may not feel like you're insulting him.
They offered him what he's actually worth, it's not their fault that he has delusions of being worth a lot more than that. If someone wants to get stuck with a ridiculous 10 year contract for Correa, more power to them but there's no reason for the Astros to make that kind of laughable offer
If Correa going supernova for the next 5 months means winning a championship but losing him...I'll take it.
They definitely didn't offer him what he's worth. What Correa wanted was definitely not what he's worth also. It's in-between. He's had a healthy seasons so far and look what he does. He's top ten in the majors in WAR.
The money move for Correa would be to sign a QO and postpone his FA by one offseason. Correa might be then the top FA SS pick of the 2022-2023 offseason. The Astros could give Correa a big Thank You deal in the offseason like one year 30 large, instead of the QO.
The Ridiculous Class Of Free Agent Shortstops In 2021-22 As things stand, here’s an early look at a legitimately jaw-dropping crop of shortstop talent that will hit the market upon conclusion of the 2021 season (age for the 2022 season included in parentheses)… Top of the Class Francisco Lindor (28): Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be worth more than $100MM a few years ago, and the move looks wise. He’s already topped $28MM in arbitration salaries and could plausibly command $300MM+ on a free-agent deal. Javier Baez (29): Baez has been in extension talks with the Cubs, but their ownership has been reluctant to spend money in recent winters. Baez was an All-Star in 2018-19, finished second in ’18 MVP voting and is one of MLB’s most well-rounded infielders. Carlos Correa (27): Correa hasn’t topped 110 games since 2016, but the former AL Rookie of the Year has been 29 percent better than the league-average hitter in his career, per wRC+. The average shortstop hasn’t topped 100 during his time in the Majors. Trevor Story (29): No shortstop has more than Story’s 123 home runs since the time of his MLB debut in 2016 (despite missing about two months of that season due to injury). He’ll have to overcome the standard Coors Field stigma, but he’s hit for power on the road as well and grades out very well at shortstop (career +40 DRS). Corey Seager (28): The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year returned from 2018 Tommy John surgery to swat 19 homers and an NL-leading 44 doubles in just 139 games in 2019. With so much star power around him in L.A., Seager has in some ways become underrated. Established Veterans/Potential Regulars Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has been outstanding since the Dodgers acquired him in a low-profile deal that wound up looking like a heist. He’s hit .268/.340/.468 in three seasons while playing all over the outfield and everywhere but first base on the infield. Brandon Crawford (35): Long one of the game’s best defensive players, Crawford’s all-around game has taken a dip in recent years. There’s still time for the lifelong Giant to turn things around, though, and he should be provided ample opportunity to do so given his status as a leader in San Francisco. Miguel Rojas (33): The Marlins hold a $5.5MM option over Rojas that’ll vest if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2021. Rojas plays quality defense and is extremely difficult to strike out. But if he reaches the open market after 2021, it’ll be because Miami deemed him expendable despite that affordable rate. Utility/Bench Options Greg Garcia (32): Garcia has never hit that much, but he’s a useful defender at three infield positions who draws plenty of walks. Some could argue that his walk rate is propped up by hitting ahead of the pitcher, but Garcia has walked at a 13.8 percent clip in 326 PAs hitting leadoff, too. Donovan Solano (34): Solano had barely seen the Majors since 2014 when he came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 in 228 PAs with the Giants last year. There’s a fair bit of smoke and mirror there, evidenced by a .409 BABIP, but that renaissance will still give him some new life in the big leagues. Danny Santana (31): Speaking of unexpected renaissances, Santana brushed away a combined .219/.256/.319 from 2015-18 (732 PAs) to rake at a .283/.324/.534 clip with Texas last year. His strikeout rate soared to nearly 30 percent, though, and while his .353 BABIP wasn’t as high as his .405 mark from his brilliant rookie season in ’14, it still seems ripe for regression.
Despite Correa frustratingly not unlocking all of his MVP caliber talent, he's been a star-level player and deserving of a large contract. Lindor got paid already. Baez, Story and Seager are underperforming. Correa looks like the crown jewel of the loaded FA class.
This is what I’m thinking/worried about. I’m not sure where the large contract will come from...but it’s coming. Carlos will have 200m in the bag easily, maybe 250m or more. Last offseason, NYY didn’t look like a major player for SS given that they didn’t go after Lindor and obviously had Gleybar...but with his subpar defense, I wonder NYY is looking at Gleybar as their second baseman of the future. Sans the optics of the villain role, Correa seems to be everything NY wants in a SS. Clutch as hell, big moment performer...I don’t know. I hope we keep Correa but at the same time know it’ll cost a ton at this point.
Money is money but I wonder how much Correa values the comraderie and identity he has formed as an Astro. If they win a WS this year that further strengthens his relationship with Houston and maybe he could one of those guys like Biggio and Bagwell who has a one team identity. He also seems very close to guys like Altuve, Yuli and Bregman. Not saying he would accept a drastically reduced contract compared to other teams but maybe a slightly smaller offer than what a team like the Yankees can give is enough?
I wonder if a $180M extension would have gotten it done last off season. Is there any information out there about of whether the Astros ever markedly exceed their $120M offer?
My memory may be playing tricks, but the numbers I heard were 4Yr $100M and 6Yr $150M after adamantly denying they would go that long. Maybe that was Springer.
They offered 6 off 120…. Then went to 5 for 125. Correa would probably either take 10 year deals at a similar per year rate, or 30 million per year for less years. I don’t think they’re going to give anybody a 10 year deal. Going as high as 30 million really depends on his ability to stay healthy. The back seems sound. Dusty has done a good job with off days. At this point his back seems less risky than Bregman’s or Springer’s legs.
a real shame they didn’t make a more serious effort to extend him, and this is something that could come back to haunt Click should Correa continue to perform over the bulk of his next contract. Now we get to likely lose a draft pick should we sign a decent FA or shop the bargain bin.
Not sure about that. I believe both sides sort of showed their cards based on concerns. Correa wanted an extension… was willing to commit 10 years of his life to Houston and forgo the mega media markets everybody suspected him of… in large part because he probably does know deep down that many would question his long term worth should he succumb to either a freak or chronic injury this year. That being said, he also felt confident the health issues are more of the freak than chronic type… and as long as his new training regimen holds true, he can expect to play at a high level. The Astros were willing to commit 6 years to him, something they expressed reluctance to when discussing extensions with Springer. But they’re not going to give him Lindor money or commit more years up front if he can’t play a full season. If he continues at this pace, he’s probably going to get the 10 year deal from somebody. The only hope is that the ties to Houston have some merit, the team continues to win with him leading the way, the Astros find an extra $75 million in total value to a contract offer, and of course he proves to stay healthy all year. Grass isn’t always greener. Most of these guys know of no other season except contention and playoffs. With the way the Astros young core of starting pitching is developing (Framber, Javier, Urquiddy, Garcia), the Astros have as good a chance of any of making noise for some years. Springer may soon find out that its just not as exciting competing for 3rd place. Correa probably doesn’t want to just be another highly paid player on a mediocre team that doesn’t routinely get featured in October (see Bryce Harper).
