With little help around Davis Mills, can the Texans properly evaluate the rookie QB? https://theathletic.com/2763758/202...n-the-texans-properly-evaluate-the-rookie-qb/ Davis Mills’ first Texans training camp has included promising days and interception-filled ones, and after both, the rookie quarterback has leaned on the same saying: It’s never as bad as you think it is, and it’s never as good as you think it is. Mills has approached the game this way for a while. His old coach at Greater Atlanta Christian School in Georgia, Tim Hardy, said Mills only became more coachable as he rose to become the top-ranked quarterback recruit in the country. Mills’ father, Steve, said his son never viewed the No.1 ranking as anything more than “a nice achievement” on the way to bigger goals. On Tuesday, the rookie out of Stanford acknowledged mistakes were bound to happen, but he resisted the notion he should be OK with them. “You have some level of freedom because it’s early on, but it’s a tough business,” Mills said. “Obviously I want to protect the football.” In recent seasons, teams have been willing to move on from first-round quarterbacks after one year (Josh Rosen), or even after handing them hefty second contracts (Carson Wentz and Jared Goff). In the case of Mills, a third-round pick, the window to prove himself to the Texans is rather narrow. If the Texans do not work disgruntled quarterback Deshaun Watson back into their plans for the future, they’ll probably want to give Mills a shot in this regular season, so they can evaluate him before they’re potentially in position to draft another quarterback early in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Whenever that chance arrives, Mills will likely be taking over a struggling team. The Texans are the betting favorites to have the NFL’s worst record. Their overhauled roster lacks established offensive playmakers beyond receiver Brandin Cooks, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil might be the only offensive lineman returning to start at the same position as he held a year ago. Should Mills struggle, the Texans will have to separate his individual performance from suboptimal surroundings. “I don’t know that this is an ideal situation for a veteran quarterback, a first-round pick, a third-round pick,” said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who previously worked as an NFL scout. “It’s just not ideal, very awkward. That’s a tough one. I don’t think that’s how you would script it if you were Davis Mills’ parents.” Watson’s continued presence at Texans practice, while facing 22 active civil lawsuits and still requesting a trade, ensures no rookie has faced a situation quite like Mills’ — but John Beck can somewhat relate. Now a private quarterbacks coach, Beck was a second-round pick of the Dolphins in 2007. As is the case with Mills, whom he does not train, Beck landed at a draft slot that showed the team was intrigued by but not ultra-committed to him. To survive, Beck had to display promise when he received his chance to start as a rookie, with the Dolphins sitting at 0-9. Ultimately, Beck’s run as the starter in Miami lasted just four games, all losses, and a new regime took over the following offseason. After the worst game of Beck’s career — a three-pick loss to the Jets — Dolphins star defensive end Jason Taylor told reporters, “You guys can try to sit here and crucify John Beck for this, but it isn’t his fault.” Indeed, there was plenty of blame to go around on the 1-15 Dolphins. “If (Mills) does have to play, you hope to see improvement over the course of the time he’s playing,” said Beck, who later spent a season with the Texans. “Improvement is such an interesting thing to judge. What are most people going to say? ‘If he improves, they’ll win, and his stats should be better.’ But that’s not always the case.” So how should the Texans track Mills’ progress? As the Texans prepare to play the Packers in their first preseason game Saturday, offensive coordinator Tim Kelly said he just doesn’t want to see the rookie make the same mistake twice. Kelly claimed he’s already seeing fewer panic-induced errors from Mills, who threw four interceptions in the competitive portions of one red zone-focused practice last week. “Things are starting to slow down, and he’s really starting to feel comfortable when he’s back there, particularly when he’s in the pocket,” Kelly said of Mills. Jeremiah and former NFL general manager Randy Mueller, who drafted Beck in Miami, both said evaluators can determine whether a quarterback has a plan on each play even if the outcome doesn’t reflect it because of a quick sack or dropped pass. When Mills plays, the Texans will hope to see his processing regularly speeding up. That some of this progress might go unnoticed on the scoreboard will help the Texans evaluate another facet of Mills’ game: his mental toughness. “The fact the ball might get dropped or he might get sacked, there’s a reason for that,” Mueller said. “I want to see how thick his skin is, and I want to see if he can compete when ****’s going bad.” Of course, the Texans would prefer things not go sideways for Mills, or any other quarterback. In the rookie’s case, Beck said putting Mills in the best possible situation will require a coaching staff that pares down the playbook to only what Mills is extremely comfortable with, so he can maintain poise when things inevitably go wrong. Soon after the Texans drafted Mills, Stanford coach David Shaw told The Athletic that’s one of the strengths of Pep Hamilton, the Texans’ quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator, who was previously Shaw’s offensive coordinator at Stanford and a key part of Houston’s pre-draft evaluation of Mills. “When you think of offense, a lot of core passing concepts carry over through every offense,” Mills said Tuesday. “A lot of that’s the same. The reads are still the same. It’s just kind of a transition on catching up to speed with this current system, all the different calls, the verbiage, and also getting used to the speed of NFL defenses.” Mills added that Kelly and Hamilton “are both really open to ideas and what we’ve kind of thought about in the past and how we think about different things to try to become universal in it.” Kelly can also make Mills’ life easier by improving a rushing attack that ranked last in DVOA a season ago, spurring the Texans to make many changes to the offensive line and add multiple veteran running backs, including Phillip Lindsay. If the moves don’t work out, regular season outings from Mills could include plenty of third-and-longs and a lot of defensive looks featuring two high safeties. Plus, thanks to a Texans defense generating low expectations, Mills could be dropping back with his team often trailing. This would be hard for a veteran quarterback, let alone a third-round rookie who started 11 games at Stanford thanks to knee injuries and the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 college football season. “In this situation, it’s going to be darn near impossible (to make a proper evaluation),” Jeremiah said. “He would have to be exceptional, and that would be obvious. I don’t think it’s set up to be obvious.” In other words, that saying Mills likes could be appropriate for this Texans season, as the rookie’s surroundings might make it difficult to know just how good or bad Mills is.
Its interesting that there is a narrative that there is "little around Davis Mills to properly evaluate him" yet Tyrod Taylor looked like one of the best QBs in the NFL with the same talent. If you can ball ... you will ball. Simple as that. Not everyone was made for the NFL. This was Tyrods first NFL start by the way.
Tyrod, a 10 year vet who didn’t get his first start until year 5 is the same situation as a rookie that had minimal starts even in college. Keep doubling down on your bias my friend. Just be fair and there’s no issues. Mills might absolutely crap the bed, in fact it’s likely. But there needs to be quite a few games before anyone can say he’s “not it”. Some of the posters in here seem to have already done that and at same time promote Cam freaking Newton lol. Very curious
And that’s not even to diminish Tyrod. I love the guy, he’s a professional in every sense of the word. The problem is he’s not the future, great stop gap til we find the future. Whether that’s Mills or a future draft pick is yet to be seen. Best thing would be for Mills to be the guy so that we can use picks to fill in rest of the roster. If not, find a QB in next draft or 2023. Tyrod will be great stop gap as long as he’s healthy.
Absolutely- I would love nothing more than for Mills to be the talk of the town in a positive sense thru actions on the field - that means we can focus top spots on safer bets in next year draft - we really don’t know yet but he does need some chances, I was very happy with Tyrod and his great play thus far - but honestly- we needed to see what Mills does
That was the narrative for Watson’s entire time here. The narrative for the off season was 0-16. I guess it’s quickly changed now for Mills.
