I have been disappointed in Straws defense. I also wonder if the previous time he spent learning SS is now to his detriment, as Straw was/is a relatively raw baseball player for his age. Certainly has the speed and arm to be a good (even elite) CF, but his jumps/routes and glove haven’t looked good to my untrained eye, and the metrics appear to be backing that up. It is possible that he can improve with more reps (both in the field and at the plate). I am content to have them continue to play Straw until 1 of 3 things happen: 1. He has 200+ pa and and continues to show no sign of improving or being an everyday caliber player. 2. One of the minor league outfielders has put up such a good, sustained performance (>900 ops over >200 pa) that they force their way into Houston. 3. The trade deadline arrives. At this point I think even a marginal vet like Marisnick would make a meaningful upgrade. And of course there are potentially more significant moves (Marte). Ideally, Ronnie Dawson, Jose Siri, or Jake Meyers will continue their blistering paces and become an unexpected star.
This is going to be a strange transition since every series is a six game series. It will take longer to see if you're great or the opposition stinks.
So Straw's recent hitting production has raised his fWAR to 0.3 (not good, but basically back on track with preseason projections). Current Angels hitters with more fWAR: Trout, Walsh, Ohtani, and Rendon. A good offensive game today and Straw could pass Rendon.
What is the current opinion on Straw? He's been a slightly below average bat (above average BA and OBP with zero power) and has been on a hot streak defensively for quite a while now. Looking at his baserunning stats compared to the team is depressing. He ranks slightly higher than Alvarez. There are way too many names below Alvarez even though Blummer and TK have been gushing over him and his good top speed (he's somewhat fast, but not quick).
Is an OPS+ of 72 considered "slightly below average"? He's been better with the bat and glove the past month, but I'm not sure how long you can keep running out a CF who is below average at literally everything. But this is his first time as a regular, so there's always the hope that he'll get better. Alvarez has been running the bases well, noticeably better than before he got his knee fixed, in that he makes good decisions, good turns and doesn't clog them up. Which is pretty much all you want out of your 250lb DH.
He isn't very good? He is replacement level defensively, he is not a good base runner, he has close to zero power and he doesn't really get on base. He is playing because he is cheap and the Astros have limited options. My guess is that they keep trotting him out there until the deadline when they see if they can poach someone else cheap in trade. I wish McCormick could play center, at least he almost has a pulse.
Since April 21st, his RC+ (like OPS+ except weighted to run value) is 95. I'd guess OPS+ is probably close to that for that time period. The way Alvarez has been running is great for a 250 LB DH. Putting up worse running stats as a 2B, a SS, or a 3B is depressing.
Straws BABIP was always gonna regularize. Nobody with his speed hitting grounders was gonna stay around .250, I don't care how soft the contact was. So I wouldn't necessarily call his recent stretch hot in that regard. He's posted a .300/355 number over the last 3 weeks but he's done so with a .368 BABIP. Can he keep his BABIP number high enough without hitting with much authority. His xBA and xOBP are still terrible. His defense is adequate, but nothing special. Never thought he was as bad as others here, but I will need to see a lot before I think he's really adding anything in that regard. He's played well enough recently that his job probably isn't in jeopardy, but we have to see if he can actually start to trend into positive offensive numbers. I've never cared about his OPS, but his OBP has to be good up over, .340 at least. He has to create runs somehow if he's gonna be anything more than a temporary band-aid that we can easily upgrade. Still think Maldy hitting behind him is stupid.
Agree on the he isn't very good. He is playing CF. It takes a very biased view to think someone playing that hard a position is replacement level defensively. He would have to be playing like he did the first three weeks all the time for that to be true. On on base, league average for position players is 0.316. Even with the first 3 weeks, he's dead league average. Since then, he's been great at getting on base. He's not a skilled runner, but unfortunately he's still one of the best on the team which isn't saying much. While not a good player, he's not the albatross people view him. It seems the view on Straw is how he played in a three week stretch. It takes a long time for a player that isn't good to erase a horrendous stretch.
They don't get thrown out much, but they don't swipe the extra bag enough. Too much station to station running. Also, Correa doesn't always hustle out of the box which costs some bases, outs when the fielder makes an error. Bregman looks really slow on the bases. Granted, I was surprised with the stats that showed Straw ahead of them. Though, that is more due to Straw not making enough boneheaded plays to completely sink his baserunning value.
I think this is the closest its been all year. That is to say, both Tucker & Straw started off pretty miserable and are gradually bring their numbers up to expectations. While I once thought otherwise, I don't think Straw gets to Reddick's 2020 numbers. Maybe a .650 OPS by years end? Thought I would show what Springer/Reddick are doing in 2021. Not enough data yet I am afraid. Be interesting to see if Reddick stays in the line-up and continue to hit well. 2020 Springer/Reddick .899/.693 2021 Springer/Reddick .894/.816* 2021 Tucker/Straw .795/.604 (after 59 games) *Neither has played much. Especially Springer who only has 15AB for the whole season to this point due to injury.
"Replacement level" I think the term accounts for positional difficulty. A player might be a replacement level CF but a good LF, for instance. So I don't think the term has the bias you attribute to it. And offensive production isn't just OBP. If you have zero power, you need to get on base at better than league average pace, and be a + baserunner. The view isn't based on a "three week stretch" - you ignore the entirety of his 2020 season. In fact, his season-long 72 OPS+ is nearly identical to his career 74 OPS+. I compared him to Billy Hamilton in a previous post but to be honest, Hamilton might be a better offensive player this season. And Hamilton isn't good.
They used to make a distinction between fast and quick twitch abilities. And that's even before getting to the mental readiness and approach. I'm extremely slow clocking in at 7.7 in the 40 that last time I was timed, by one day on a little league mound (about 40 feet), a friend blasted a line drive back at me and I swear I reacted so fast with quick twitch instinct that I didn't know what happened until I found the ball in my glove.
I'm ready for Houston to move on. Either promote whichever of Meyers/Dawson/Siri they think will be best or otherwise trade for a better option (or maybe use the time between now and the deadline to audition one of the AAA guys before making a trade). After 400+ PA Straw has shown he cannot make enough of the type of contact that will allow him to take advantage of his speed; he hits the ball weakly and on the ground. And he has also shown that his speed and arm play down on the field. I would actually send him down to work on defense (jumps, routes, throw accuracy, general decision making) and baserunning with the expectation that he can eventually come up and be a great OF sub and pinch runner who can also serve as an emergency SS.
From what I have seen, he is not all the good in centerfield. His glove is good enough to remain in center but there is nothing special or even average about it for a starting centerfielder. Having said that, it is only my opinion. He is fast enough but takes poor routes to the ball and can get confused. A .316 OBP doesn't impress me when literally everything is a single or a walk. He is fast (which does matter) but he is a poor base runner. His bat wouldn't be such an issue if we had some sort of production offensively behind the plate. The two of them back to back hurt.
So far, I like what I've seen from McCormack, both at bat and in the field. But Straw seems to be the new Jake with less to offer on defense.
