1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Don’t Trust the NBA!!!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Imanimal, May 28, 2021.

  1. mikenm268

    mikenm268 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2018
    Messages:
    342
    Likes Received:
    959
    If you pick a horse that is 15/1 and it wins, do you think that outcome is evidence the race was fixed...?
     
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    37,910
    Likes Received:
    15,377
    15/1 odds -- means, what, about a 6% chance of success? That would be very weak evidence. My initial level of confidence that the race isn't fixed will not budge much at all just because an event with 6% probability came to pass. If it was 100/1 -- that would be stronger evidence.

    The hypothetical scenario I described would count as fairly strong evidence, because the probability of a die landing 6 ten times in a row naturally is vanishingly small.

    So, I disagree with your statement that a long shot hitting isn't evidence of illegitimacy. It depends on how much of a long shot it is.
     
  3. TEXNIFICENT

    TEXNIFICENT Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    7,741
    Likes Received:
    6,409
    Dream34 went #1 that year. HOF
     
    saleem and banzai like this.
  4. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2006
    Messages:
    3,766
    Likes Received:
    1,402
    I don't trust the NBA at all, but I also don't know if there's any meaningful evidence of lottery shadiness. I think officiating is the main device the NBA uses for rigging... Most of the rest is taken care of somewhat "organically" by the fact that big markets are just more attractive to star players in the first place (and they have wealthier owners who can afford to make more mistakes).
     
    mikenm268 likes this.
  5. DonatelloLimestone

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2021
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,959
    If thats the case, then we should be optimistic with us sending harden to brooklyn as you've mentioned.

    PElicans also botched another star player with the Stan Van Gundy hire. Hes a veteran coach. They'd have been better off letting the young guys run n gun under MDA, unleashing their offensive potential and young energy to run each team out and then when they want to take the next step deeper in the playoffs get a defense guy. Doing the opposite wears the young players down and I wouldn't be surprised either if SVG is gone or as you mentioned zion leaves after his first extension.
     
    Reeko likes this.
  6. mikenm268

    mikenm268 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2018
    Messages:
    342
    Likes Received:
    959
    A low probability outcome actually occurring isn't 'evidence' of anything. It is one outcome in a large distribution that, by chance, happened to be the one that occurred.
    I agree with you, but the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery is happening exactly one time. There isn't going to be a trend of multiple low probability outcomes upon which you are able to base your suspicions. So unless you are making a purely hypothetical argument that doesn't relate to this draft lottery, respectfully, I don't understand the point you are trying to make.
     
  7. DonatelloLimestone

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2021
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,959
    We are literally the 4th biggest metro market in the US. We also have supposdely one of the richest owners accordign to forbes, more than warriors who spent billoins making new facilities privately funded, pay crazy luxury tax where as we got toyota center at taxpayers cost, but privately profited. Fact is they even gave us Yao, the chinese golden cash cow if they have any control shows houston is a great market.

    Difference is the warriors owners take miniority ownership or whatever else to get teh best product out there and invest in long term brand and culture building. We've spent tilman's tenure cost saving and pointing fingers elsewhere. Houston as a city is great and a highly desirable market for NBA players, our ownership is not.

    Rich paul who is now a master agent explains new age nba economics and players view. it doesn't bode well for houston as a destination.

    "
    'I educated [Davis] on why I thought the team wouldn't be . . . ' He paused. 'All athletes are competitive and confident, until reality sets in. And I educated him on things.'"

    Paul laid out what superstars need to see from teams to give a long-term commitment.

    "You either need your team in place, or you need flexibility, assets, money, and the ability to make decisions. And, more important, the willingness to pay the [luxury] tax ... This ain't 'Moneyball.
     
    saleem likes this.
  8. dc rock

    dc rock Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2001
    Messages:
    7,051
    Likes Received:
    11,897
    [​IMG]

    If you get rid of Dwight here, those other four were the Rockets’ #1 draft picks, right?

    Elvin Hayes, Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Yao Ming.

    [​IMG]
     
    saleem likes this.
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    37,910
    Likes Received:
    15,377
    As far as I can understand, it makes no difference whether it corresponds to one event or a series of consecutive events, if the probability is the same either way. I could change my example to a hypothetical 6,000,000-faced die that I roll one time -- and if it lands on the side that I pre-selected then it is highly probable there is something fishy going on.

    The original point I made is that the outcome in this case shouldn't change one's opinion on whether the lottery is rigged or not, given where the odds are. Hypothetically, if the odds we'd hit the lottery were close to 100% and it didn't happen, then one has more cause to be suspicious. For the same reason one has more cause to be suspicious if a 100-faced die lands on the one side I pre-selected versus if it landed on a different side.
     
  10. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2006
    Messages:
    3,766
    Likes Received:
    1,402
    I agree that Houston is a fairly large market, and that Tilman is a POS owner, but the relative size of the metroplex does not equate directly to the relative size of the market.

    By viewership and revenue, IIRC, Houston is something like 11th in the NBA, despite being the 4th biggest city in the nation. Eleventh is still above average, and good enough to buy some rings, but obviously not as big as a team like the Whoreiors in their prime, with four all-stars and a franchise player who has proven way more likeable and marketable, for whatever silly reasons, than James Harden (the hot mom and former NBA dad probably doesn't hurt). Plus, it's not just about the size of the market, but the attractiveness of the city (though those things usually correlate).
     
  11. DonatelloLimestone

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2021
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,959
    So how does San Antonio and cleveland end up winning rings?
    How does minessota and cleveland and new orleans end up with the first picks?
    DEtroit as well?

    I geuss I can see some odd situatiosn that make me wonder, ultimatley I don't think its that rigged. Maybe refs put a thumb on the scale and things like that but its just not blantant and i don't think they can afford do it that way.

    But also, no excuse for not updating and making the lottery more transparent and in public. made for tv stuff
     
  12. John Harvey

    John Harvey Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2018
    Messages:
    2,250
    Likes Received:
    1,564
    Never trust China
     
  13. MorningZippo

    MorningZippo Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,229
    Likes Received:
    2,495
    This is the crux. If you rolled that die 100 times and it only landed on 6, it's still not credible evidence. The only evidence you've obtained with regards to the distribution is that you're experiencing some xxx sigma event.

    You should be willing to believe that the lottery has a distribution that isn't normal, not update your belief that the dice are loaded.
     
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    37,910
    Likes Received:
    15,377
    What would you think if you see someone roll a die 100 times and each time it lands 6? You think it is sensible to think that was just a highly improbable event, as opposed to there’s a fair chance that there’s something peculiar with that die or there’s a trick going on?
     
  15. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2006
    Messages:
    3,766
    Likes Received:
    1,402
    Firstly, I already said I don't think there is much evidence that the lottery is rigged (though it could be, and anecdotes don't disprove that).

    Secondly, I never said ONLY big markets can ever win rings. I said it's easier for them to do so, and rigged officiating is one thing that helps make that true. (Remember: rigged does NOT mean fixed... this isn't the WWE. Rarely, teams can even overcome lopsided officiating. Rockets came dangerously close to doing so in 2018 before Paul's injury). Other things, such as market attractiveness, are more organic and there's not much the league could do about it even if they wanted to.

    Finally, if you're willing to accept that there can be an agenda for the officials, that agenda doesn't always have to favor a big market. More marketable/likeable stars or story lines are probably often just as easy to justify on the bottomline as big city teams getting a ring, especially if it helps people believe in league parity and allows for people to make arguments like the one you're making. Take Miami over Dallas in 2006. Miami had the refs in their pocket, but it's a smaller market than Dallas.
     
    #75 SuperMarioBro, Jun 4, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2021

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now