His deceleration, strength, quick reactions, finishing ability, durability, etc. are all very important parts of his game that will get worse as he ages. You think Melo's game relied on athleticism? What about Duncan and Shaq? Both of those guys really started to decline around 33. The list of guys who were top tier players whose game dropped off quite a bit around or before the ~33 year old mark is orders of magnitude longer than the list of guys who didn't. Harden has never really load managed and has taken a lot of contact in his career. It's possible Harden could be one of the exceptions but more likely he's not. I'm not saying Harden will be like Melo and nearly out of the league in 2-3 years. He could very well still be a productive player in the 33-36 age range. If he extends/resigns for $50mm/yr and is a top 50 player instead of top 10 player that's still pretty bad for BKN. If the Nets convince him to resign for $10mm/yr or something that's a different story.
I think its a lot o speculation, morey made a point that makes sense. Harden doesnt play above the rim like lebron, he plays below. He could get by an entire game with out one dunk and still leave you with 30-15-7. His game and body should age well. I wouldn't let one year take that away. We were all screaming that Paul was a wash and he was done that injury prone year, sure enough it iddn't last. The point is its very hard to predict and now new knowledge and ways are allowing people to sustain performance for longer. Heck did any of us even see russ at 32/33 get back his groove this year? Even wall still looked athletic after 2 years of not playing. Lebron is unique, he drops like 1 million on his body yearly. he is man with a plan and an absolute savant to this sport in his dedication matching his talent, hell the guy became a great shooter after 32/33...not many people can add skills like that late in the game. testimony to being a student of the game. Harden likewise is that. Maybe doesn't dedicate his body, but like cp3 whose to sy he can't make that change after a tough year and do better? Like cp3 his game is on the floor so it should in theory age better than lebron. Around this age, or better yet with these injuries, are usually a wake up call for guys like harden. He left houston because he felt the heat. The nba life is short, your prime is even shorter. So he knew his culmination of his entire life work/nba legacy has 1-3 years left and he can't keep staying with an ownership who spends 90 percent of their moves cutting cost and then also putting the onus on you publicly. So he left. Now he had a tough injury year, I wouldn't be surprised for him to get some new trainers or new food style and make the adjustments this summer. Harden did not become great on accident, not soley on talent...the guy grinds, works, and approaches the game as a student and always has and does get better/efficient. I'm not going to bet that he'll stop this summer. The other aspect is its a brooklyn market, newly minted 'hip' brand, you have an ownership that gave a blank check, new facilities, practice, staff, everything they have its a great draw. We saw as kd,kyrie, harden all chose to go brooklyn when they could go anywhere in this league. So whose to say they won't be able to attract new talent faster than us, their owner will spend. Rich Paul, speaking on anthony davis and new orleans, applies to HArden too: " "'I educated [Davis] on why I thought the team wouldn't be . . . ' He paused. 'All athletes are competitive and confident, until reality sets in. And I educated him on things.'" Paul laid out what superstars need to see from teams to give a long-term commitment. "You either need your team in place, or you need flexibility, assets, money, and the ability to make decisions. And, more important, the willingness to pay the [luxury] tax ... This ain't 'Moneyball.'" The new generation of player empowerment...the players have raised the bar. Gone are the 90s owners who bought in cheap and can get by cheaping out, the nba economics is changing and the new tv deal may cover players salaries before any gates and merchandise!
Context matters. Duncan adn shaq are huge 7 footers, shaq noteworthy wasn't very disciplined and then to add further context the spurs decided to transition those years to tony parker/ginobili and then kawahi for pops system. Melo is a lot like iverson, struggle to adapt or adjust in play. Maybe similar to westbrook in that they had one style of play and couldn't adjust. Iverson wouldn't come off the bench and reinvent things, melo had trouble doing that too. Hes now got a rejuvination and his per36 is closest to his nyc days at 36. So I get what you're saying, father time always wins. But harden is probably more suitable both in that hes adapted his game several times over, is more efficient smart than melo ever was, can play the pg,sg/sf and find many ways to contribute and more than anybody he plays on the ground and is a skill player. Hes adapted from being the assist leader to the points and just finds ways to cut through the game. So I don't think any of those examples are good ones to put against harden. And plus, players want to play with him. Everywhere he goes his teammates rave how easy he makes the game for everyone so rebuilding with him is a bit easier. PLus even if kyrie and kd leave, they are still a top draw for free agents to come so if in one 2 years we both have cap space, very few FA are going to choose houston over brooklyn considering our ownership, culture, and facilities. In the end, there is certainly a chance it could work out for us. But we traded him for a lot of hope, what ifs, and things aligned in our way when we also disregard they have a great market, great new franchise, big money and are a draw for talent. IF it works out like it did for boston, great, but its not any sure thing or not even close at this point. We all wish we got something tangible for harden, we don't even have one guaranteed lottery pick, just a hope that maybe, maybe things will go in our way and well get one.
are you a Melo fan or something? first you know that harden's stregths are his bball IQ, skill, working on his craft, playmaking, and impact to winning right? and if you think of a mid 30 yr old that's comparable first player who comes into your mind is Melo?? not CP3 and Lebron? LOL
Great. We traded an MVP player and the best we have to show for it is "Maybe by 2027 Brooklyn will be bad!"
Oh absolutely. I think i posted about this last year. I don't blame the Rockets for optimizing their return but the fact that it all has to come in future value of middle school players is garbage for fans, players and coaches. The league should crack down on trading out draft capital to force teams to get more return in present value.
not sure why the focus is solely on Harden and how he ages...KD will age gracefully without a doubt as well...all u can wonder is if he keeps getting injured, that’s it tore his Achilles, and came back like it never happened Harden might start racking up injuries with longer recovery times like Bron has been doing as he ages, but I think his impact isn’t falling below star level at the very least any time soon Melo? Lol, please stop
It's fair to assume that Durant / Harden will have a drop-off. Not saying they won't be stars at 35/36, because the way they play the game, they will surely still be damn good players carrying the Nets to the playoffs, but I don't think they will be championship caliber players anymore unless they have some more help. Assuming both stay healthy. I think Harden will definitely stay healthy, not as confident with Durant considering some of the lower leg injuries he's had in the last 2 years.
they will have a drop-off for sure, but I think they’ll still be pretty good and impactful at an advanced age the way Lebron and CP3 still are...they’ll have to completely fall off the map or just miss huge amounts of time for those BK picks to be premium assuming they don’t leave the Nets...all it takes is 40 wins to be a surefire playoff team in the East and those BK picks to be non-lottery, so needless to say, I don’t place those BK picks in high regard atm...the best thing that came out of this Harden trade by far is that it made us sh*tty enough to hopefully keep our pick this year
Yes. I have seen James Harden play basketball. I'm not a Melo fan. He's just an easy example of a guy whose game had nothing to do with athleticism and went from all star to out of the league in two years in his early-mid 30's. Wade, Dirk, Iverson, Ginobili, Parker, Kobe, etc. Several of those guys and several other players have been productive players somewhere in the 33-36 range but almost no player is close to as good as they were at that age vs. where they were at in their late 20's. I think Lebron is a horrible comparison for Harden for aging because Lebron doesn't party to the extent Harden does and takes care of his body in a way that Harden has not up to this point. CP3 looked like he was about to fall off a cliff at 33. He staved off father time a little by completely changing his diet and his conditioning. I don't know if James has that bullet in his chamber. I also don't think CP3's body has the wear on it overall that Harden's does. There are very, very few players who were All-NBA caliber after 33. I'm not betting that a guy who parties like Harden does and hasn't shown that he's especially smart about his diet/regimen like Harden will be in that extremely small list. You've been around since '05 so maybe you are over 35, but I think most of the folks on this site who think Harden will still be a top 15 player in 2+ years are probably younger than their mid 30's and don't understand what happens to you when you hit that age. If Harden would have taken the extension and stayed here I would have been happy but I also would have thought we were going to be pretty effed by the time those OKC picks rolled around in 2024.
A lot of those things are speculative. What abotu the partying is so detrimental with harden? Is he drinking perhaps like James admits he drinks almost every night? Main thing is he getting rest? Nba players dont work in the morning their prime hours are at 7pm. You can easily stay out all night and still get your 8 hours of rest let alone game day nap. Just like you mentioned, Paul has adapted his diet, whose to say Harden won't? He has some perception as this partier who doesn't care and wakes up out of bed to hit 45-15. Hes a skill player, that takes deliberate consistent work and drive. To do that over several season while not resting and playing high useage like he does takes a mental grit, drive to be great, and maniacal motivation to do it consistently every day over so long with a target on your back. He shown his ability to adapt, be it be the pg and lead the league in assists, lead in points, or be more efficient and focus on defense when he has that luxury to do so like this year. So I think its misleading as he is not media savvy, not outspoken, his moms his agent, i think his image takes a hit but the proof is in his output which is not just elite, its elite even in the context of hall of famers. And its adapted and changed and continues to do so. Jordan was also famous for his partying ways and late night gambling, it didn't stop him from aging well. I also agree that lebron is an anomaly rather than a case study of how adjust. Not only does he focus on his body, he continues to refine his skill and people don't give credit for a career average shooter to get elite at it this late in his career and be deadly from any spot on the court. But he is also setting the blueprint with his trailblazing ways, stars like harden who show they have the drive and need to be great might have a humbling season like this one, as chris paul did, just to spark new changes and lebron is showing the possibilities and everyone of them can afford a 1 million cool a year for your body let alone knowing they probably have just a few years left of their careers, less in their prime windows.
I think Harden will be one of the best in the league until he is 35 or so. He is a gym rat and as much grief as he gets he takes care of his body. He also looks really sturdy, his game is not predicated on speed. Durant on the other hand could only last another couple of years or worse. He most certainly is going to injure those toothpicks more often as he ages. Irving will probably blow up and retire or leave. It won’t make too much difference as far as the Rockets picks. As long as Harden is in NJ they will be in the playoffs.
Yea thats the more dire outlook. The problem, as we saw in houston, is if harden is on the court they at least have a chacne at the playoffs and will not be a lottery team. Our hope is his subtle 'i always repay my debts' and him not selling any of his houston business, properties, or even shutting down his foundation despite rockets unleashing a media barrage of negative publicity on oppose to someone similar in JJ Watt( local legend, elite performance, but didn't get the chip in the end of the day) who also wanted out after the franchise was making cost cutting or just dumb moves, they respected it quietly and wished him well in the offseason....rockets said 'they want to get uncomfortable' bc tilman is an idiot, this is not the 90s,2000s, like it or not its a player league and harden is pretty unique for houston. Anyways, that said, with those signs I still like to think harden wants to end his career here. Could that mean in3 years he comes back leaving brooklyn scramming at the bottom of the league while reap the benefits of those picks and also get harden back uncle drew style to usher in a new era. Point is, we're all hoping and reaching. We got nothing definitive in return for a hall of famer elite, we're all hoping and doing some gymnastics to find where we get real tangible value and thats not great, but im dreaming up good scenerios with the rest of em.
When u get to a certain caliber of player, they are able to remain highly effective into their mid-thirties or even beyond, and it’s not a surprise. Bron and CP3 are in that category...Nash...Karl Malone...Kareem...Kobe was putting up 27, 6, and 6 at age 34, and it was an Achilles injury after being overworked by MDA that stopped him, and there’s more that could be named...KD and Harden will likely be the same...I bet Luka will also still be ballin past age 35 as well Harden must really be the most talented of all-time if he’s just some fat, lazy drunk who parties every night, yet can still lead the league in minutes and dominate every one the likes of Melo don’t measure up...if Melo was able to adapt his game or had a more well rounded game to begin with, he might not have fallen off so drastically so quickly...a bunch of inefficient midrange shots and having monster usage while generating like 2-3 apg was cool back in 2012, but was no longer gonna fly in the modern game
I've said my piece and will move on after this, but Kobe's age 34 season is even to an extent what I'm talking about. He was elite defensively in his late 20's and by 34 barely played any defense any more. He still put up some good stats but wasn't close to the same player at that point. You can't just gloss over the injury, but if you want to blame it all on his minutes, they basically needed every single one of those minutes for a team that had Kobe, Dwight, and Gasol to sneak into the playoffs. If he'd played less they likely would have been in the lottery that year. I'm not saying Harden is anything close to "lazy" but it doesn't seem like he's in the same league as Lebron in terms of taking care of his body with an eye towards longevity, which entails more than just being in game shape. Lebron missed the playoffs at age 34 by the way. It's also not like we didn't see footage of Melo balling in his hoodie every offseason in any event. Acting like 35 year old Harden will easily be able to drag a team to the playoffs when Bradley Beal barely did this year and Curry didn't this year is just ridiculous. If Harden and KD are willing to do a Dirk and Spurs big 3 type thing where they sign way below market deals and the Nets pull a rabbit out of their hat like trading George Hill for Kawhi then they could be good for awhile. Otherwise if all these guys extend for their max deals and the Nets have no real avenue to otherwise improve their roster the fall will probably happen within a couple of years and it will probably be pretty drastic after that year by year. If you don't want to take my analysis then Presti betting on Harden's downside during those years should at least carry some weight.
Kobe was still a top 10 player at age 34 Lebron also made the finals at 33, and won the title at 35 I’m not sure what your point is with Melo working out in a hoodie...he was in the gym practicing his ISO midrange jumper, a skill that’s not that relevant in today’s game, especially when he was so inefficient Bradley Beal doesn’t make anyone better unlike Harden, and he’s also not playing next to KD and Kyrie...Harden will have to drop several tiers before he goes down to Beal’s level, and he’d still have something Beal doesn’t: the ability to elevate his teammates...Beal still made it with a 34-38 record because u don’t even need to be .500 to be a playoff team in the East...GS would’ve been a playoff team in the East, Curry couldn’t carry them to the postseason in the West
The Lakers traded for Anthony Davis! If the Nets can get Giannis or something in the next couple of years, then sure, they will be good for awhile. Kobe was nowhere close to top 10 at that point. The standings don't lie, man. He was a total sieve on defense by then. Gasol was still a productive player. Dwight was still a productive player. They made the playoffs by 2 games. They went from the title to barely making the playoffs three years later even with upgrading from Bynum to Dwight because dudes like Kobe, Pau and Artest hit that 32-34 range and were still productive players but not as good as a few years earlier and/or injured. If Harden puts up stats that lead people to still call him top 10 or whatever but the Nets are in the lottery I'm fine with that result. EDIT: Maybe I'm getting hyperbolic on Kobe by saying "nowhere close to top 10", but regardless of where he was in the league hierarchy he was much better when he was leading them to a title at 31 and the Lakers with Pau and Dwight had the same record as Harden's Rockets with Lin and Asik back when Harden was also a huge minus on defense. Presti and Stone both to an extent bet on Harden declining by 2024. I think they are both going to be right.
Not if we got back any players y’all think we’re good. We might have still been a clear lotto team once the injuries started. But the worst team? Less likely. Might be all for naught though if the ping pong balls don’t bounce right. the only better trade in retrospect, might have been to keep LeVert. Cause there’s no way I’d rather have kept Allen and Prince knowing that trade led to KPJ. Keeping LeVert, finding his injury, then giving him minutes late in the season to show he still got it and trading him for more this offseason. but consider Riley knew Oladipo was still iffy with injuries (in and out of Rockets lineup)and still gave up decent assets for the chance to get him. GMs aren’t perfect. Oladipo was tempting for Stone cause if healthy he’s near all star player and if not he was an expiring contract and the team was worth. the beauty of what Stone did... recognizing it wasn’t perfect... was optionality. He knew he couldn’t predict the future so made a trade that could work in a few different ways while definitively getting a lot of far future assets. that’s a lot of analysis to still come to the same conclusion though... if the arockets keep their top 4 pick then however it happened... it worked and that’s freaking awesome.
