Kevin Goldstein wrote an article about how the deadline discussions for most teams begin this week: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-time-for-reach-out-calls-has-begun/ In that article he labels the Angels, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, and Tigers as sellers (no surprises there). He lists the Jays, Cubs, GIants, Marlins, Nats, Indians, Mariners, Phillies, Reds, Royals, and Twins as possible sellers. I don't think Toronto or Philly will sell. From those other teams, here are guys I think Houston should be interested in: Angels; Raisel Iglesias Diamondbacks; Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, Madison Bumgarner Orioles: John Means Pirates: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, Richard Rodriguez Rangers: Joey Gallo, Ian Kennedy Rockies: German Marquez, Jon Gray Tigers: Robbie Grossman, Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer, Jose Cisnero Cubs: Ian Happ, Jake Marisnick, Craig Kimbrel Giants: Mike Yaz, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Alex Wood, Jake McGee Nats: Victor Robles, Max Scherzer, Daniel Hudson Marlins: Starling Marte, Adam Cimber Cleveland: Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber Mariners: Mitch Haniger, Kendall Graveman Royals: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Danny Duffy, Scott Barlow, Mike Minor Reds: Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray Twins: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Michael Pineda
Among the position players, Haniger sticks out as a very good bat on a small salary. Astros would likely need Tucker in CF for that to work, though.
A hypothetical: Astros get: CF Ketel Marte SP Madison Bumgarner $16M Diamondbacks get: SP Luis Garcia RHP Hunter Brown RP Enoli Paredes PTBNL (RHP Francis Martes) OF Myles Straw
So it could be that I'm letting my Astros love and some recency bias to sink a bit here, but is it crazy to say I'd rather have a 24-year-old Garcia having a career year than a nearly 31-year-old Bumgarner who's years removed from his peak and makes $60M the next three seasons? What am I missing? And I like Marte and get that he's the bigger get here, but he's had really just the one All-Star caliber season. It could be my ignorance of Garcia's contract situation. I assume he's under team control for a while given his age, but is he going to be a free agent sooner rather than later?
Yes Garcia does have 5 more seasons of control after this one, but the Astros have no good prospects and no money. If they want to acquire a star player with multiple years of control (like Marte), their only chip is their young mlb-ready pitching (namely: Garcia, Javier, or Urquidy as the headliner). If you think Marte is not a star and/or buy that Garcia is a ToR SP then this is a bad deal for the Astros. If you view Garcia as a really good but risky SP prospect and Marte as a legit star and MadBum as having some gas in the tank, it’s a fair deal. I think MadBum is probably more of a #4 over the remainder of his contract but also think he could recapture some magic with Houston, especially with playoff adrenaline. And I think Marte is an underrated star. I would LOVE this playoff roster: CF Marte LF Brantley 3B Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Tucker 1B Gurriel C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Castro, McCormick, TBD Rotation: Greinke, Bumgarner, Valdez, McCullers Bullpen: Pressly, Verlander, Javier, Baez, Raley, Stanek, Smith, Odorizzi, Urquidy
I'm not expecting the Astros to go over the luxury tax. That trade won't work. The 16 million would be divided up equally among the remaining years on Bumgarner's and/or Marte's contract. That would push them well over the luxury tax. Barring injury, I expect the Astros to target rentals only for the bullpen and MAYBE CF. You can get rental bullpen help for cheap. It makes no sense for the Astros to shred their farm system even more for players with multi year control when they have cash to spend in the offseason and no 1st or 2nd round picks in the upcoming draft. I expect them to target guys like Yimi Garcia. Only making 1.9 million so at the deadline he will be owed like 633k.....
They have no money for 2021, only due to the luxury tax. They have $70M coming off the books after this season and a lot of flexibility moving forward. That’s why I have Arizona eating all of MadBums remaining 2021 salary (plus some). Bumgarner only has $34M/2yr remaining after this season (signed $85M/5yr that started in 2020). Bumgarner was terrible in 2020, but was pretty good in 2019 (3.3 fWAR) and has been roughly an average starter so far this season (0.7 fWAR in 57.2 IP, 4.60 xFIP). His FB velo is 91.2 this season which is only very slightly down from his career peak (91.6-92.9)
And give up a really good starting pitcher with 5 years of control. How long is Marte under control? I'm more along the lines of trading Taylor Jones and Parades for a guy like Graveman.
Doesn't work that way. Any cash is divided up among the remaning years of the contract. So you can't apply the 16 million to just the 2021 luxury tax.
Bumgarner’s salary for 2021 is $19M, of which <$10M will remain at the deadline. Marte’s salary this season is $6.4M of which <$3.5M will remain. So Arizona eating $16M would mean no impact for Houstons 2021 luxury tax calculation (and Arizona would still eat some money in 2022).
"The average annual value of Stanton's contract is $25 million, but since the Marlins are kicking in $30 million, that money is spread out across the remaining years of the contract. So that's a $3 million "credit" to the Yankees per season, reducing Stanton's luxury tax "hit" to $22 million per year. It doesn't matter that New York may never actually see a penny of that $30 million -- the Marlins only pay it if Stanton does not opt out -- they're still credited with the luxury tax savings." https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/...y-to-spend-even-after-the-mega-stanton-trade/
Also, as a wise man posted elsewhere, fixing the bullpen needs to be Stros priorities 1, 2, and maybe 3.
Bummer. You are correct, that trade wouldn’t work. In that case Houston is likely to be out on almost any star player that has years of control remaining and a significant contract. I would think they could still swing Marte. Take out Bumgarner. Astros get: CF Ketel Marte $8M Diamondbacks get: SP Luis Garcia RHP Hunter Brown RP Enoli Paredes OF Ronnie Dawson
Which is why I said rentals only. However, a guy pre arb or in arb making a small salary could work as well since they are only on one year deals technically. The consequences for going over the luxury tax could be a disaster this offseason. Had they extended Correa it wouldn't matter nearly as much. However, if Correa goes the Astros need to sign a big time free agent whether at CF or SS. Unless they are traded guys like Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javy Baez, Starling Marte, and Corey Seager are likely to receive qualifying offers.... Astros would lose even more draft picks to sign a guy with a qualifying offer after being over the luxury tax. It is the 2nd and 5th highest picks. I also recall baseball ruling it would be even higher picks for the Astros because they didn't want them benefiting off losing their picks from the cheating scandal.
