Great finds thanks. 95 at his age likely means he should be able to get up to 96-97 in short appearances at his peak. 4 viable pitches with a FB that gets into the upper 90s is a high upside combo.
Cesar Rosado vs. Amarillo: 5 IP, 3 H, 9 K Scott Manea went 3-3 with a solo homer, his second of the year. He also hit an RBI double that turned out to be the difference in Corpus Christi's 3-2 win over Amarillo.
Joe Perez drove in five for Asheville tonight. Four came on a grand slam, his first homer with the Tourists and 3rd overall this year.
True Notice how Luhnow can't get another GM job. Even though he was probably the best GM in MLB. That speaks volumes to me.
Three walks and a grand slam for Dawson. I really wish he could replace Straw for the Astros. Too bad he’s not on the 40 man.
Ronnie Dawson has a grand slam tonight for the skeeters. Seth Martinez had 5 k’s in 2 innings and has 13 k’s on the year in 6 1/3 innings. ERA is at 1.04 I believe...
You beat me to it. Seems like Dawson starting to put his tools together and has really improved his eye at the plate.
After Jon Olczak got the last out, J.P. France finished the game with seven strikeouts over four perfect innings.
I don't pay enough attention to keep them apart, but aren't both France and Freure having very good years?
Freure's given up 11 runs in his last two appearances (4.1 innings). To be fair, his last two innings have come at home and Asheville's park is basically Lancaster Lite. France allowed three runs in each of his last two appearances, so with a 4.35 ERA in 5 appearances (3 starts, 20.2 IP) he's been decent to start. Normally at 26 and in AA, he'd be in "just a guy" territory, but everyone lost a year for obvious reasons. He's probably in that area between "fringy" and "just a guy" at this point.
No wonder I got 'em confused: JP France: 20.2IP, 17H, 7XBH, 9BB, 33K. That ain't bad for a minor leaguer, he'll play for a while. RJ Freure is not as good. I did have hopes for him a couple of years ago. What does "a couple of years ago" mean, anymore, though?
Bermudez and France are both doing better in CC at K%-BB% than Javier and Urquidy did in 2019 (Though both of Javier and Urquidy performed for a larger sample and at AAA as well). K% appears to be up more than normal at AA so it might be that hitters after 2 years are way behind. It might also mean that Bermudez and France have MLB careers ahead of them as they are still doing great relative to other AA pitchers this year. Donato isn't far behind.
I redid my Top 30 as part of a May system recap. Overall, I think strikeouts resulting from the layoff and general trends in the sport are making it harder to draw conclusions in the early going, but it's been a mixed bag for Houston. They have had a good handful of 3rd tier prospects jump up into the 2nd tier, but a lot of their highest rated prospects have either gotten hurt or started off cold. Spoiler: Astros Farm Report: May Updated Top 30 Prospects: 1. SS/OF Pedro Leon (AA, wRC+ 63): His slash line looks like an abject disaster, but considering his layoff, level, and position move, struggles out of the gate should have been expected. He has flashed the broad set of tools he was touted for and I expect a hot June and/or July to get his stock back where it was. He hasn’t taken the big leap many of us hoped for and expected, but he is still Houston’s top position player prospect. 2. RHP Hunter Brown (AA, 2.2 k/bb): He has only thrown 7 AA innings but has done well in that time (his 9.39 ERA is bad luck; he’s struck out 12.9/9). He has ToR potential. 3. SS Jeremy Pena (AAA, injured): Horrible timing for a major injury as his stock was pointing straight up and there’s likely going to be an opportunity in Houston at his position next year. Now all we can do is hope he comes back sooner than expected and hits the ground running. 4. RHP Forrest Whitley (AAA, injured): another lost season but as long as he’s still in the system the ceiling will be there. 5. C Korey Lee (High A, wRC+ 148): An under the radar month with broad success but no elite stats. Still, he has been a well above average hitter for his league, so overall his stock is slightly up. Far more will be known once he gets 200 pa in AA (hopefully later this year). 6. SS Freudis Nova (High A, wRC+ 104): He missed some time (assuming due to nagging injury), but has shown improvement in his weakest area, posting a 18% walk rate in his 39 pa. Despite what may seem like a conservative placement in High A, he is still young for that level. His 28% k rate is his statistical pock mark, but k’s haven’t been an issue for him prior to this season so I expect that number to come down (it’s likely a symptom of him displaying his training to be more selective at the plate). Stock steady. 7. OF Colin Barber (High A, wRC+ 137): Given his pedigree and age, his overall numbers are fantastic. If it weren’t for his 41% strikeout rate, he’d be much higher on this list. If that gets in line, he should see a monster jump in stock and be in Top 100 conversations. If it doesn’t get in line, well, the number of successful major leaguers who struck out that much in High A is extremely low. 8. OF Ronnie Dawson (AAA, wRC+ 164): By far the prospect who has raised his stock the most in this first month of 2021, Dawson has walked more than he has struck out, while also showing real power. Combine that with his documented speed, and all of a sudden Dawson looks like he has real potential to be a good everyday major league outfielder. It’s only 89 plate appearances, but guys who post those numbers in AAA have a good track record of success. 100 more pa of this level of production and he will have earned an extended shot in Houston. 9. 3B Joe Perez (A/High A, wRC+ 154): Another big mover, Perez hat walked and hit for power in the early going. Now he was promoted, so he’s young for his league and playing in a hitters park. Big potential for one of the systems highest ceiling bats. 10. RHP Alex Santos (complex league): mildly disappointing he wasn’t assigned to Fayetteville but not a major red flag. Will just have to wait to see on this one. 11. RHP Jairo Solis (AAA, injured): could have been poised for a breakout but instead added another significant injury to his resume. 12. IF Grae Kessinger (AA, wRC+ 71): A 597 OPS looks uglier than it really is. His .232 BABIP and .099 ISO are bound to come up and signs of some bad luck. No change from the expectation that Kessinger ends up as a decent utility player. 13. RHP Tyler Ivey (AAA, 1.8 k/bb): walked too many guys in AAA but reached the majors and showed ok there. Likely a middle/long reliever. 14. RHP Peter Solomon (AAA, 3.1 k/bb): He’s been pretty good this season and should see a few spot starts in the majors at some point this year. 15. C/1B Michael Papierski (AAA, wRC+ 169): Another big jumper from the group of AAA hitters having a monster May, the walk-heavy approach Papierski has shown in previous seasons appears to be viable in the highest levels of the minors. Add in that he is also showing enough power to keep pitchers honest, and he suddenly looks like a guy very likely to reach the majors and stick, at least as a backup, but with potential for more. 16. RHP Shawn Dubin (AAA, 3.4 k/bb): had some bad luck on HR and babip but still looks like a future big leaguer. 17. RHP Angel Macuare (A, 4.8 k/bb): biggest pitcher jump so far this season and he’s dominating full season ball so far. Could be a MoR SP. 18. IF Dauri Lorenzo (Complex league): We’ll have to wait until the GCL kicks off to see what Lorenzo can do, but I’m still fairly high on him. 19. RHP Austin Hansen (AAA, 1.4 k/bb): middling numbers in the early going but his AAA placement was aggressive so there’s still plenty of reason to project him as a solid MLB bullpen piece down the road. 20. OF Jake Meyers (AAA, wRC+ 133): .230 ISO with only 17% k rate and elite CF defense in AAA? That’s a major leaguer. 21. RHP Jojanse Torres (AAA, 1.5 k/bb): classic fireballer line (high k, high bb), looking like a Rhiner Cruz type. 22. 2B Luis Santana (High A, wRC+ 104): kind of an odd stat line from Santana considering his profile but he is young for his league and having moderate success. He is also showing some intermittent power so he is still firmly in that 3rd tier. 23. RHP Jonathan Bermudez (AA, 13!!! k/bb): huge jump in stock due to 23.2 AA innings of pure dominance. His lack of pedigree tempers the optimism but obviously if he keeps this up he will be a top prospect. 24. RHP Tyler Brown (High A, 1.6 k/bb): too many walks. Trending to relief. 25. OF Zach Daniels (A, wRC+ 91): Strikeouts are up across baseball, but no 22 year old who strikes out 40% of the time in A ball should be projected to be a major leaguer. It’s only 75 pa but his stock is undeniably down considering all the hype he got in preseason. 26. RHP Brett Conine (AAA, 2.3 k/bb): his sterling ERA is masking a low k rate, but he may just be one of those pitchers who can have success relying on generating weak contact. BoR SP or long reliever. 27. RHP Blair Henley (High A, 2.6 k/bb): some bad luck .489 babip but is also walking too many for a pitcher with his profile. 28. RHP Jose Alberto Rivera (High A, 1.86 k/bb): too many walks. See Tyler Brown or Jojanse Torres. 29. OF Jordan Brewer (injured): Still has that elite power/speed combo but at this point he will be a forgotten prospect until he appears on the field. 30. C/1B Nathan Perry (injured): I’m banking on Luhnow’s HS position player track record here but not knowing his injury I’m not sure what his status is. Sleepers (stock up): RHP Jaime Melendez, RHP Luis Vega, IF Yohander Martinez, IF Alex De Goti, IF CJ Hinojosa, OF Corey Julks, 1B Taylor Jones, OF Bryan De La Cruz, 1B/LF JJ Matijevic, C Scott Manea, IF Enmanuel Valdez, IF Miguelangel Sierra. This is the list of guys who should be in the org top 30 conversation and are off to pretty good starts this season. Melendez is a teenager posting insane numbers in Fayettevile’s rotation. Vega is another teenager who was recently promoted to full season ball and is having early success. Martinez is a teenage infielder in full season ball, which is a combo of traits with a very good track record. De Goti has played in the majors and while he is a pretty low ceiling guy, solid infielders who can hit for power have value. Hinojosa has avoided strikeouts and hit for power in AAA, which along with his defensive value makes him likely to be able to contribute in the majors at some point. Julks hasn’t played a ton but when he has he has shown broad tools in AA; he’s a potential 4th OF. Jones had the look of an MLB caliber everyday bat; I’d like to see him get 3 months of consistent PA in the majors, but that would likely have to some after a trade to a rebuilding team. De La Cruz showed a broad hitting skillset after some preseason hype but he’ll have to show an elite trait to really be in the mix. Matijevic is walking and hitting for power but with his defensive limitations he will not be a major leaguer with a 27% k rate. Manea is a fire hydrant that could turn into a bad body, but he’s hitting well in AA and playing a premium defensive position, so there’s value there. Valdez has been hot and cold but is worth tracking as a potential bench infielder. Sierra hasn’t gotten to play much but he is young for AAA and is hitting for power, add in that he’s fine at all 3 IF positions and he has some value, even though he just as easily could end up released soon. Fool’s gold (huge surface stats masking major strikeout problems): C Nerio Rodriguez, OF Matthew Barefoot, OF Jose Siri, OF Marty Costes, 1B/OF Scott Schreiber, OF Alex McKenna, IF David Hensley. As mentioned, strikeouts are up across baseball, so there is some leeway for guys striking out more than is normal for good prospects, but unless these guys can show improvement in getting on base, their big opening numbers should be taken with a hefty grain of salt. Stock down: Shay Whitcomb and CJ Stubbs’ stock are both down; Stubbs has been worthless at the plate and Whitcomb is striking out a ton in a league he should be dominating. Colton Shaver was demoted to AA and hasn’t shown anything. Norel Gonzalez isn’t hitting much as a 27 year old in AA. I've also been disappointed in Ross Adolph.
Given the unpredictability of pitching prospects, here is the list of pitchers with >10 innings and a k/bb >3: Macuare Melendez Bermudez Solomon Dubin Brett Daniels JP France Jimmy Endersby Felipe Tejada Christian Mejias RJ Freure Cesar Rosado Ryan Hartman Chad Donato Cesar Gomez Devin Conn Jose Bravo Hartman, Donato, and Endersby are the most interesting to me after the guys I already talked about.
Does anyone know what happened to Jordan Brewer and Nathan Perry? Doesn't look like they're assigned to a team
Brewer is injured, although I’m not sure if it’s a continuation of the injury that he had prior to last year or a new injury. He has tweeted indicating he expects to play later this year. I have not seen anything on Perry. Both players are listed as “Astros Organization” on their MiLB player card. Others in that boat are C Cesar Salazar, 1B Jake Adams, and SS Deury Carrasco. IF Bryan Arias was also in that group but he was assigned to Fayetteville last week.
