[OFFICIAL] Russell Westbrook as a Washington Wizard

Maybe your avatar brings out the worst in other posters right about now.

It's like Uncle Leo's eyebrows.

 

"
John Hollinger’s PER Method

1. John observed that some players help teams win more than others.
2. John wanted to see whether a single metric could predict player productivity.
3. John based his work on Dean Oliver’s four factors while also adding his own weightings based on his beliefs about basketball.
4. John developed a hypothesis about a single measure — which became PER — but doesn’t make a falsifiable statement about it (e.g. PER predicts team wins)
5. John creates his PER measure. He doesn’t specify any outcome variables.
6. John collects data on his measure.
7. John does not produce any statistical analysis to see whether PER significantly predicts productivity because, again, he hasn’t specified outcome variables. We also don’t have any stated effect sizes for PER.
8. PER has not been updated based on analyses.
9. Additional tests of PER have not been conducted or cited by those who still use PER as a measurement of player productivity.

John Hollinger wrote that:

What PER can do, however, is summarize a player’s statistical accomplishments in a single number. That allows us to unify the disparate data on each player we try to track in our heads[…] so that we can move on to evaluating what might be missing from the stats.

Essentially, Hollinger set out to:

• Summarize the statistical accomplishments of NBA players using a single measure
• Make sure the measure does an effective job measuring per-minute productivity

He achieved the former goal with PER, but along the way he failed to conduct the basic scientific analysis needed to make sure his metric was statistically valid in achieving the latter."

"
Why does PER remain so popular?
Despite its flaws PER remains a heavily used NBA statistics. Why is that?

Well, for one, I’m quite certain it does predict some amount of variance in team wins (even if the effect sizes haven’t been stated outright). There’s also the matter of cultural relevance — PER is embedded deeply into NBA culture now.

It’s cultural relevance comes down to two main things:

1. It was one of the first composite metrics to attempt to answer a question all NBA fans are interested in: who are the most productive players in the league?
2. It captures interest in a way that resonates with the average NBA fan.

"

https://towardsdatascience.com/problems-with-per-in-the-nba-fa0e611543e2


PER is valuable, helps simplify somethings, but its really not and sadly there isn't one simple difinitive answer. Its great for espn, great for some arguments, but theres just more, let alone with Westbrooks voltailtiy. His first half and 2nd half season are two totally different players nad you take that into account

 

I believe the reason this formula is spitting out a lower number than you would expect from those box score numbers is I remember Hollinger explaining the formula during a podcast that the stat compares you to a league average player. It rewards volume but takes into account your efficiency compared to league average. Currently Westbrooks scoring efficiency is 6-7% lower than league average. I would assume this is why it is dragging his PER number down.

 

Good point. 57.2 TS% for league average is probably an all-time high or close to it, and Westbrook is at 50.8 TS%. That huge disparity is probably a big factor.

His PER was over 30 in his MVP season, so I figured Westbrook's PER would remain pretty high as long as he's averaging triple doubles. But I guess it's not just about that.

 

All I know is that after having watched it for a season, I don't want the ball in Westbrook's hands with the game on the line. I had no faith in it. I would cringe at key moments and leverage moments throughout a game when Russell wanted to score. There was no faith. So I gotta think his teammates feel the same way and no team can win that way.

 

Yep, tis an odd thing he has the highest clutch rating in the nba this season. I think thats more so that the team is young and no creators outside of him and beal and beal also has had some games where he say. but in any case, I like what wesbtrook has shown the last ew months, but I agree with many posters, wish he'd make some adjustments in the clutch, hes gotta do that. hes had some success, his teammates especially the wizars know this team is nothign with out him. who else do you give the ball to except beal? But wess gotta do better if he wants to do anything, he'll keep em in the game and then lost this one tonight. But they'll have the play in, we'll see a whole lot more important stuff then

 

There is a good chance beal is done for the regular season including play in. Idk how much you can gather from it if that is the case. Also scott brooks is a moron. I see wiz fans complain so much about his rotations and i finally see it now. Its ridiculous he plays three centers and gafford gets the least minutes. Alex len should not be playing at all dudes a complete scrub. His lineups are mind boggling at times.

 

If Pacers lose tomorrow vs. Lakers and Hornets lose out, that vaults the Wizards to the 8th seed.

With Boston struggling, I think the Wizards have a punchers chance to knock them off in the play-in and take the 7th seed.

End result 1st round series of Nets v. Wizards. Just hope Beal would be healthy by then.

 

My evil plan is working. It's all on Russell now. Go win the next 2 games against the Hornets and Celtics.

 

It's impressive Russ made it to the playoffs with the way Washington started.

 

Imagine Westbrook and Curry on the same team... they would score 160 points every night.

 

Imagine the points of the opponent. But the fun factor is Eric level.

 

You've gotta get caught up. Wizards, beal, Neto, Robin Lopez, SCott brooks, and beltrans won inspite of Westbrooks antics.

His league leading assits which were the highest average assists for a season a little less than 30 years, topped only by seasons by guys named John Stockton and Magin Johnson(and one kevin porter season in the 70s) were just empty stat padding detrimental to his team. He forced them to shoot it because his life is just a triple double, thats it.

Somehow they go 17-6 and sneak into the 8th seed. PLay in will be fun, hopefully westbrook doesn't pull up 3 for the win...take it in russ or pass it!

 

They have not actually made it to the playoffs yet.

 

Russ with 10 points on 2-10 shooting in game 2...he’s 9-27 through 2 games

Where are all those triple doubles at now?

when the games actually get serious and it’s time to step up and ball, he’s consistently awful

 

delete.

 

The fan needs to be fined and banned for life from NBA.