Strongly encourage you guys to read this article in entirety, if you do let me know what you think. Looks like a 10x or 0x play off binary event. Bull case is event driven trial took 9 years because drug was more effective than expected, they needed to wait for 298 patients to die. Bear case is there were irregularities during the trial including dispute and change with the original CRO, and dropouts by patients. Management were buying shares as late as last month. Only 1 officer that has been selling regularly. CEO still holding 1mil + shares, and hasn't sold in 20 years. Results expected to come out very soon. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418652-cel-sci-stock-multikine-to-change-standard-of-care
just take the assignment and hold, twtr will go up eventually. network too powerful, even the people that hate it go to twtr to b**** about twtr lol. i'm very tempted to buy, but looks like it could go down a bit more?
Yep, holding, but would rather have bought the MSFT dip. Not a big believer in Twitter at this price in the mid-term.
One of my regrets of 2020 was selling puts on it when it was in the $20s. Did it a few times and made 10-20% each time, but in hindsight should have just bought shares and make 200%. If it gets to $40s I'm definitely buying, one of the few stocks that have to look beyond earnings due to ridiculous power (it can change elections, start revolutions), and earnings aren't terrible either. Eventually that power will be monetized further. Valuation is currently on par with rblx, that doesn't seem right.
in this interview w 60 minutes, the new INTC CEO said the company is going to curb its focus on buying back its own stock. in view of this, been thinking about this bar bell approach: buying bullish CALL spread (buy lower strike, sell a higher strike) on TSM, to be partially financed by selling a bearish CALL spread (buy higher strike, sell a lower strike) on INTC
I skimmed the article but one long-term factor to consider is many of their potential customers died from covid (assuming the cancers they target skew towards the elderly). Sure they'll get a short-term pop off any FDA approvals but just something to keep in mind. My wife works for a large oncology biotech company and they've been having layoffs and lowering guidance because covid took out a significant % of their customers.
PRPO - I'll try to share the small caps I get in again going forward - this one I couldn't watch - entered late @2.70 to 2.80s and exited early due to tight stops but man I would have focused on this more and shared it - didn't expect it to go this crazy
I got in $JOB at 0.64, it's probably a slow one but should move. Similar tip from source that got me PRPO, I didn't go heavy in PRPO due to not playing some Apple calls great this morning but man if I traded that instead of screwing around with some momentum contracts... I would have been okay with 2-3x lol. Should have been watching for that tip and shared it... @1.70 entry, lol - I'll eventually get in on time like before... JOB stock I definitely don't feel like it'll run like PRPO not yet at least, but it could get a quick pump - so this is definitely a small gamble
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/03/currency-in-circulation One signal I've been following is the YoY change in money supply as it appears to have correlation with the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. In the prior crashes, there were sharp increases in M2 that did not sustain for more than a few years. Interpret it however you want but the past 2 months, we've had YoY decreases in money supply. This doesn't mean liquidity is shrinking but it does mean its growth is slowing, which I do not see as a good thing in regard to the stock market and thus fueling my bear sentiment. You need to shift the graph in the blog post to the last 20-30 years to see what I'm talking about.
we did have pandemic-induced economic shutdown / slowdown, since Mar 2020, no ? actually, it suggest that the recent fear of inflation may be overblown. what happened in 2000 and 2008 was that the economy stop growing, thus unable to sustain the growth in M2. my take on the YoY decrease in M2 suggests that the recent worry over inflationary pressure may be overblown. the 10-yr has been meandering ~ 1.5-1.7 range. and the latest estimate by BoA economist call for 4+% growth in GDP in 2021, and higher in the out year up to 2024. these are the drivers for much higher GDP growth in the next several yrs. continuing Fed-induced liquidity stim checks and pent-up demand infrastructure bill in view of the above, most probably, the continuing growth in GDP will sustain forthcoming YoY increase in M2
Unless there's an event with obvious fundamental economic impact like a pandemic shutting down biz, I've given up trying to divine the vagaries of macro. Too many factors and differing opinions. Every year when market falters, articles come up about how we are at all time high and we are due for a crash. If anything I've left $ on the table by being too conservative in the past. Appreciate your views on this, but currently seems too speculative for me to make a decision either way. Eventually the doom and gloom predictors will be right, but if the crash and recovery is like last year, i'm not worried at all. A depression style meltdown would be suicide inducing, but that's impossible to predict. I'm actually more worried about the pandemic and these reopening plays. Only holding RIO atm for infra. After ending shutdowns a year ago, Singapore has started to ramp up distancing measures again; not full lock down yet, but employers strongly encouraged to go back to WFH. The mutated variants from India appear to be a new type of problem. Frontline staff that have gotten vaccinated still get sick, and others that recovered getting reinfected. I don't think we have full shutdown again, but it may be a constant tightening and loosening of distancing measures as virus ebbs and spikes in cycles. Edit: I don't think covid will tank overall market again, but to be safe I wouldn't want to be in airlines/cruises either
I had been meaning to reply back to you. I haven't been trading as much as I used to, but I did throw some money on EToro for crypto nothing too big. It's basically like having a crypto ETF by copying people on there. I don't really have any high reward plays to recommend, but one of my recent recommendations hit with UPS to sell puts and buy a call spread. A few months ago I was looking at boring big caps that had basically gone sideways for awhile to make levered plays on. I own some UPS Stores and I knew the entire UPS Store network was crushing it since covid. I can look over stuff and give opinions. Overall, I think the market is in a bit of a carefree spot which can persist for a long period without a negative catalyst. I've also been picking up some preferred stocks in my personal account to hold. That account is basically fixed income stuff and it's up like 70% this year...which is crazy. I do have it levered but only by like 33%. Some of my long term holders are getting back to levels where I'd be looking to sell, but I'm trying to hold because I know these types of markets can last long. FWIW before covid we were getting to a spot like that and then covid nuked us. I don't really have any stocks in this space to recommend because they've all skyrocketed. Other than that I'm glad I have most of my money tied up in real estate in the Austin area. It does feel bubbly, but like I said these things can persist for awhile. Valuations don't really kill bull markets. I am curious about inflation because it does kind of feel like it might be gaining traction, but inflation is also still in a secular bear market. Maybe something covid related will be the next sell off catalyst, but I just don't see any on the horizon. Maybe crypto disrupting the currency marketplace will cause problems. Who knows...
thanks! I I think the expectation is there will be a buyout in the $10bn+ range if p3 is success. I didn't realise covid had such a big impact on the tam; will keep in mind when looking at oncology plays
Nice! Envious of you landlords I would love to own more property in Singapore as well but I don't have enough $ (loan rules are complicated after 1st home); covid has led to contruction delays and residential could continue skyrocketing for a few more years.
I'm Definitely interested in UPS insights or anything for that matte too! With that said, the real estate market in Austin is ridiculous. We're getting the house appraised soonish and hoping to leverage the extra value for more investments. The issue I'm having is I don't know how far out I want to buy these investments - and finding cheap investments for rentals is like winning the lotto around here... Like even an hour plus outside of Austin is becoming ridiculous. And while I don't think investing in real estate is ever bad in this area - I still think with the whole lumber issue/supplies it's becoming more of a cluster **** (I mean even with me doing just about all the labor on any rental property the materials cost are out of control). And assuming things normalize I think there will be a small pullback. But I even looked up during the housing crash in 08 (I bought this property in 06) and it never took a real hit at all. We also lucked out on location. But then again this bubble feels like it really could be a lot different than 08. Basically trying to get the best value on new investments (lol, it's probably absurd to even mention we're still trying. I just sometimes worry moving to far out and when the bubble does pop it could hurt those properties a lot more than the spot in Austin. With that said though - I still don't think property in this area will be bad with the amount of demand and people moving here.
Yeah, we really lucked out in Austin. The issue now is finding more property that's not crazy on price. Man, that's too bad on the loan rules there ... Here assuming you don't become overextended or get in over your head it's probably the easiest ways to move up. I mean right now our house is in a spot where people are bidding 100-200k over (it depends - I'd say 50-100k but I've also seen higher and over is probably more realistic atm) but just going crazy amount (, like if you rent a property in Austin there's a few spots where people are offering a whole year up front just to be close to the new companies coming. Listing a house to sell - usually won't last a day/not even to open house and finding renters isn't an issue. I'm just trying to time this out to get the best value, I've even considered (aside from some land we're hoping to buy) - getting rental property in Houston/San Antonio. I think property/land is something I'll continue to go for over a sweet car. - and if it all works out - eventually I'll get the car, haha even then it'd probably be a cheap sportscar that needs a lot of work - I work on cars on the side and maintain my own (I mean like everything but bodywork) - including overhauling a transmission - if I can get the parts cheap the labors free) - so my cars basically last 20+ years or until I get tired of working on them.
