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STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by SWTsig, Jun 2, 2008.

  1. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    MMEDF-->MMED
    CLOV
    NIO
    MJ
    and now TAP

    my posts on here are making me look like im smart. im not, just lucky
     
    Invisible Fan, CCity Zero and saitou like this.
  2. Cokebabies

    Cokebabies Contributing Member

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    In the short-term, Google and Android-only advertising platforms like APPS should benefit. The expectation is Google will eventually enact a similar privacy policy as Apple (hopefully less restrictive for advertisers than IOS) but in the short-term, they're going to suck up all the unhappy IOS advertising dollars. If I had to guess, Google will announce new privacy policies by the end of 2021, and start enforcing it by the end of 2022 but in the meantime, they going to wait and watch how it plays out for Apple. The difference between Google and Apple is Google already has a dominant ad platform so they could flip the switch and reap the benefits overnight, whereas Apple will need time to build out and refine a robust ad platform (the cynical view is that Apple doesn't really care about privacy and is just using it as an excuse to monopolize data to build their own ad platform).
     
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  3. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Thanks, these were the first 2 names that came to mind as well. Patiently holding these 2. If Apps drops past $69 I'm loading up.

    The 3rd one which i'm keeping an eye on is KBNT. Their anti ad fraud technology is interesting, but the revenue and customer base is still tiny, hoping for a big dip to enter.
     
  4. Cokebabies

    Cokebabies Contributing Member

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    My pre-pandemic valuation of APPS based on comps is around $1B. Given future prospects and the frothy market, I'll look to get in around a $3B valuation or around $30-35 but I'm also playing the market conservatively for the foreseeable future.
     
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  5. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    nice interview with apps and their latest acquisition fyber explaining how the acquisitions fit together. the fyber guy sounds more pumped than the apps guy lol.
     
  6. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    It occurred to me.... it's not a platform for my typical audience (but I might test it for open job ads soon) - but SNAP is always making strides. Not exactly a hidden gem. But once a company like that can dial in it's ad platform the money starts pouring in.

    NextDoor as an ad platform is trash right now, but IMO has a lot of potential. When the time comes.
     
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  7. Cokebabies

    Cokebabies Contributing Member

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    Fyber is a 2nd tier ad network at best. They have IOS exposure so that's not a good thing but Digital Turbine's core app download business (Android only) should get a boost.
     
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  8. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Looks like Twitter wasn't invited to Facebook & Google's stonk party. On the outside looking in with Microsoft. :(
     
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  9. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    MVIS drilling AH. Hope yall didn’t get in this over 12
     
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  10. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    I need to find the next mvis type run... I never bought back in but even at its current value I'd still be up 5000%. Hopefully everyone else killed it and didn't get in super late.
     
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  11. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Go back to $40 so I can buy pls...
     
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  12. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Flgt continues to get battered by high short interest. I'm still bullish long term. I think there's a good chance that they meet q1 guidance and raise 2021 guidance at upcoming earnings (70% confident).

    Was looking at constructing an earnings play (6 may) but premiums are expensive. Safer to just buy shares? @adoo views on how you would play this? Call spread?

    Recent motley fool article on the business:
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/27/2-numbers-that-explain-how-this-hypergrowth-compan/

    Imo, bears are correctly saying post covid revenue/earnings will drop, but they are overly discounting:
    1. the cash hoard, est. $1bn by end of year vs current market cap of $2.3bn. cash can be put to accretive acquisitions.
    2. the underlying core biz that was already high growth pre-pandemic. Covid has built enhanced their rep and built relationships with new customers for non-covid biz.
    3. Covid may linger longer than they think; we are seeing new strains and outbreaks in Europe/India
    4. Great management/execution. Ceo still owns a huge chunk of the company, they recently beat out bigger competitors for cdc testing contract, turned covid into massive windfall. They are also comically conservative with guidance, last few quarters had huge beats.
     
  13. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    followed you on your recent nio buy (a few weeks after), pls keep posting your buy alerts; we want to get in at Pele prices, not Neymar prices :D
     
  14. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Digital Turbine Announces Completion of Acquisition of AdColony and Provides Business Update

    Preliminary Business Outlook

    Based on information available as of April 29, 2021, and including the results of AdColony beginning on April 29, 2021 (the closing date of the acquisition), the Company currently expects the following for the first quarter of fiscal 2022:

    • Revenue of between $135 million and $140 million
    • Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 of between $25 million and $27 million
    Please note that the business outlook above does not include any anticipated contribution from the Fyber acquisition, which is currently expected to close in the June quarter. Fyber separately provided preliminary results for its March quarter, as well as upwardly revised forward guidance, via a news release issued on April 21, 2021. Fyber estimates total revenue in excess of €85 million in the March quarter, representing year-over-year growth of 179%. Fyber increased guidance for total revenue for full year 2021 to a range of €300 million to €350 million. The full news release detailing the updated outlook can be accessed on the investor relations portion of Fyber's website.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...y-and-provides-business-update-301280729.html

    $1bn revenue for the combined entity in 2021 looks realistic. To put in perspective, CRWD (who i like) has $800m+ trailing and $1.3bn fwd revenue valued at $46.5bn. APPS is at $6.76bn, and growing faster.
     
    #16254 saitou, Apr 30, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021
  15. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    NIO Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.

    NIO lost 23 cents a share on an adjusted, non-GAAP basis, from $1.2 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for a comparable 84 cent loss from $1.1 billion in sales. NIO’s corporate gross profit margin came in at 19.5%, about 3 percentage points better than analysts projected and up from negative 12% a year ago. First quarter results look solid.

    The stock has dropped 2.2% in premarket trading Friday after closing down 5.3% in Thursday trading. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have fallen 0.4% and 0.6% in Friday morning action.

    “NIO started the year of 2021 with a new quarterly delivery record of 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter,” said CEO William Bin Li in the company’s news release. “The overall demand for our products continues to be quite strong, but the supply chain is still facing significant challenges due to the semiconductor shortage.”

    Management called the chip situation “very severe” on its conference call and projected 21,000 to 22,000 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter and sales of about $1.3 billion. The Street is projecting $1.2 billion in sales. But the unit delivery guidance is a little lower than Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu had expected.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/eu...ven-with-domestic-economy-reeling-51619781461
     
  16. adoo

    adoo Member

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    flgt appears to be consolidating / recovering from the triangle of death, goin into the ERS. w an implied vol of 121%, the options are uber expensive.

    if i were to make a play, i'd be a net seller of options.

    using Jun expiration to construct a bullish 10-pt put spread, buy a lower strike put, sell a higher strike put
    • bto 70 strke PUT, sto 80 strike PUT; asking for a credit of $4.90, defining the max risk to be $5.10
     
    #16256 adoo, Apr 30, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021
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  17. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    thanks!
     
  18. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Since 21 apr, CTXR been going up everyday, $2.23 atm. Any of you looked into this before? @peleincubus this looks like the type you may dabble in.

    In 2 minds - take profit now or hold thru phase 3 trial results (interim results out next month). I think odds of positive phase 3 are as high as you can get - product isn't a drug that requires patient reaction, it's just a solution to kills bacteria in catheters, no reason y phase 3 should be different from phase 2 which had 100% success rate; but also nervous it just turns into a sell the news event after the anticipatory run up. TAM for USA market is $750m, global $1.5bn (in which they would have no competition), market cap is $300m. They've got other products in pipeline but those are still phase 1 or pre-clinical. 1 bad thing about this stock is whenever it gets too high, like all biotechs they will raise capital and dilute...
     
  19. adoo

    adoo Member

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    [​IMG]

    after a pop off the support level ~ 76, it is running against stiff resistance (the purple descending trend line), expect it to break the resistance​
     
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  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    I made a lot of good plays with Twitter in 2020. It had 3 distinct and severe drops. Each was an easy buy, hold, sell.

    Yesterday I sold $58.5 puts expiring today. Lulz on me.
     
    saitou likes this.

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