Anyone care to do the math? The Knicks had the worst record in 2019, but ended up with the third pick. The Warriors had the worst record in 2020, but ended up with the 2nd pick. I’m thinking that if there is a 47.9% chance that the team with the worst record will end up with a pick outside the top 4...and it hasn’t happened yet...we actually have a higher than 50% chance of conveying the pick this year...Meanwhile the Cavs ended up with the second worse record last year and ended up with the 5th pick...so I’m thinking we need to fight to get that 2nd worse spot!!
I’m aware of that...It’s like if you take a coin and flip it...there Is a 50% chance of landing heads or tails each time. However, the more times you land heads consecutively (the worst team ending up in the top 4 each time)...isn't there an increasing chance of it landing tails (worst team ending up with 5th pick)? I think you multiple the odds per outcome: https://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/games/games_9.html So hopefully there isn’t a 14% (.52 * .52 * .52) chance of us landing in the top 4 this year. If this is right, then there may be a greater than 50% chance of the #2 pick landing in the top 4 since 1/2 outcomes has already led to a pick outside the top 4 picks (vs 48%) for the team that has landed there...
no. each time you flip you have a 1 in 2 chance of landing heads. you could calculate the odds of hitting ten heads in a row, 1 in 1024. say you defy the odds and make it, what would be the odds of hitting heads the next time you flip? 1 in 2, same as it was for each previous flip. we may be interested in the history of past flips but the dumb coin only has 2 options.
Hey, I actually know the answer to this! I read a fascinating book called The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinov, and it is all about the vastly underestimated part that randomness plays in everything. I think it's an excellent book for sports fans to read -- he uses sports as a great example for many of his points. Anyway, the answer is... ...what @ico4498 said lol. Got so excited I didn't see their reply. Your article is talking about the odds of a specific ORDER of results happening at a specific time, I think (took a quick look). Not the result of the next flip (?) This might help you see how it works: http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/ Experiments show that when people make up a list of what they think look like random heads vs tails results, they are very hesitant to make any streak too long, but actual results with a fair coin are full of really long ones — the total results though come closer and closer to 50-50 over time. And those streaks can happen at any time, right at the start, whatever. Our odds are 52% or 52.1% or whatever. There are no math surprises lurking.
If this was a random coin flip then the odds would always be the same but since the NBA doesn't actually televise the ping pong ballls and we all know it has been historically rigged we have no idea what our odds are. Does Silver find pity on us for helping him trade Harden to a big market? Or does he still hate us?
It's amazing how bad we are, and how fast we got to worst in the league. We literally fell off a cliff. That is hard to do. Tuesday is for all the marbles. There is no other team on the sched we should even have a chance at beating.
Right before the game against Minnesota, Wall needs to eat something that gives him a bad case of the sh#ts. We do not need anyone playing HERO ball .
I think you want Wall playing Hero ball. It is not a formula that equates to wins considering how bad his shooting % are. I hope he chucks up 30 three pointers.
Surely Silver knows broketits needs a #1 pick to stay financially viable (Bill, that is the the very first pick, not any first rounder). So he gave him ye olde nudge nudge Wink Wink to send Harden to Bkn. Like the Cavs and LeBron - now we just need to make sure we don't pick Bennett...
I am not surprised because after James Harden there literally was not other young Star after Harden to take over games. Nothing but old role players that can't guard quicker players and can't create their own shot. Rafael Stone at least added 7 young players 25 and under that are talented. To this year's roster. Last Year's Roster is a disaster. Old Players that were terrible contracts. That need to be traded. Harden and a bunch of G Leaguers was the joke.
I honestly think Jalen Suggs is the best Point Guard in the Draft. He could be Mahmoud Abdul Rauf. Trey Young, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard. Jalen Suggs looks similar to Mahmoud.
No. This belief actually has a name (and it's why gamblers turn into alcoholics... lol.) -- it's called the Gambler's Fallacy : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
I got bored and went ahead and did the lottery simulator 500 times lol..results were as follows 15%@#1 (always Cade) 15%@#2 (mostly Suggs) 10%@#3 (mostly Mobley) 11%@#4 (always Green) 49%@#17 (always Josh Giddey) Needless to say, June 22nd is either boom or gloom day for all us diehards..may the 1-4th be with you
