Do you think they are voluntarily losing? Do you actually think of this squad woke up tomorrow and were like ok we are not going to tank anymore and start winning ? Talent is keeping them from winning
Exactly. The third worst record or the 28th overall means the Rockets will have 7% chance to land the seventh pick which will be conveyed to the Oklahoma thunder. You don’t want the thunder to have the fifth or the sixth pick.
The team with the worst record in the league has never picked outside of the top 3 for the lottery in the last 30 years (not counting trading the pick). I'll take those odds
True. But with 16 difficult games left and the Rockets have 4 more games in the loss column than the 4th worst place and the Rockets haven’t won in like forever. I am not worried about the Rockets not finishing in the bottom 3.
The current probabilities have only been in effect for a couple of years, so what happened 30 years ago doesn't really matter. In 2018, the team with the worst record had a 64% chance of getting a top-3 pick. In 2021, under the new lottery system, they would have only a 40% chance. Cleveland went from #2 to #5 last year (as an example). In 2019, a few teams with low chances of high picks got high picks. I think Cleveland and Phoenix had the 2nd and 3rd worst records but ended up with the 5th and 6th picks. The Pelicans and Grizzlies only had 6% chances of getting the #1 and #2 picks, but they got them. Pray for success, but expect disappointment because probability is a b****.
is their a way we get miami first rounder, i saw on tankathon that we were listed with okc under the number 16 pick
If the Rockets don't get a top-4 pick, OKC can swap their pick or the Miami pick (which they own) to us. Basically, if the Rockets don't land a top-4 pick in the lottery, OKC will keep the 2 best picks out of the theirs, Miami's, and the Rockets' picks and the Rockets will get the worst of the 3.
Right. Which is 28th. Because 28/29/30 all have identical lotto odds. So 28 is best choice because it’s same odds as 30 and also slightly screws OKC if it goes down that way. That’s all pretty esoteric though- anywhere in the bottom 3 is fine by me.
How many years do we have to worry about OKC taking our best pick if it’s not top 4? Is it just this year? God, what an awful trade that was.
I know it changed... and in the last 3 drafts the team with the worst record still picked in the top 3. Again, I'll take those odds.
The current system has only been in effect for the 2019 and 2020 drafts. As for taking those odds, the 2nd and 3rd worst records have the exact same odds as the worst record and in some cases, those teams did not finish in the top 3. I mentioned those earlier. So it's already been proven that the odds can suck for a bottom-3 team. Maybe we'll buck the trend, but I don't find 40% odds of staying in the top 3/60% chance of falling out very satisfying, but hey, we've got no choice.
