Here you go, Batman... Kerry Ties Bush on State-By-State Race By RON FOURNIER AP Political Writer WASHINGTON — President Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry are virtually tied in their race for state electoral votes as a crush of political problems has prevented either candidate from breaking open the contest. Six months before Election Day, Bush controls or has an edge in 24 states that account for 205 electoral votes, 65 shy of the 270 needed to win the wide-open race. The Democratic challenger has the advantage in 14 states plus the District of Columbia for 205 electoral votes. In the dozen remaining states (128 electoral votes), the contest is either tied or there's no adequate polling, according to an Associated Press review of public and private surveys as well as interviews with analysts in key states. "The country is so polarized. The president has done nothing to sway Democrats and moderates to his point of view," said independent pollster Ed Sarpolus of Michigan. "Kerry has to be pleased that it's still close, despite the fact that the president started out with such an advantage." The electoral picture has changed little since Kerry secured the Democratic nomination two months ago. While the Democrat appears to have made gains in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — three "tossup" states with 37 electoral votes — Bush has countered with leads in West Virginia (5 votes) and Arizona (10 votes). All five states are still in play and will likely remain fluid. In addition, one state considered solidly Democratic two months ago — New Jersey (15 votes) — appears to be closer than expected. Two states thought to be firmly GOP — Colorado (nine votes) and Louisiana (nine votes) — are in play because Kerry is airing ads there. However, even most Republicans believe New Jersey is still a long shot for Bush, while many Democrats feel the same about the South for Kerry. "I don't think a Massachusetts liberal is going to carry Louisiana," said Jim Duffy, a Democratic strategist from Washington. An AP-Ipsos poll suggests the race is tied nationwide, with Bush's support at 46 percent, Kerry at 43 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 7 percent. Nader tilts the race toward Bush in at least a half dozen states, according to separate polling. Kerry also is being hurt by Bush's television ads and a steady stream of GOP criticism designed to cast the Democrat as a flip-flopping elitist. Kerry has been slow to organize his grass-roots team and find a general election message. After a long delay — due in part to internal divisions — Kerry finally unveiled the biographical ad blitz demanded by fellow Democrats earlier this week. He may have a hard time persuading voters it's time to change leaders. "If I had to vote today, I would probably go with the devil I know," said 33-year-old independent voter George Hillyer of Buffalo, N.Y. Despite encouraging economic news — nearly 900,000 jobs have been created this year — support for Bush's handling of the economy was at 43 percent, the lowest number since Ipsos began tracking that question at the start of 2002. Support for Bush's handling of foreign policy and terrorism, usually his strongest area, was at 50 percent, down from 55 percent a month ago. He has even lost backing among Southerners and Republican women, two key constituencies. Carl Adams, a 66-year-old retiree from Louin, Miss., said news about prisoner abuse in Iraq made him "very much stronger against Bush and against the war." In state after state, a strong majority of voters told pollsters that the country was headed in the wrong direction yet still split their vote between Bush and Kerry. "If you had come down from Mars and were told about all of Bush's problems, you would pronounce him D.O.A., A.S.A.P," Duffy said. "But the other guy isn't catching fire." Bush has missed a golden opportunity, too. The incumbent had hoped to open a lead over Kerry by now, and perhaps take a few states off the table. Kerry started at a disadvantage. The 21 states plus the District of Columbia won by Al Gore lost seven electoral votes — from 267 to 260 — since 2000 because of population shifts. That means Kerry must retain Gore's states and find 10 more electoral votes. The possibilities include: _ Florida (27 votes), narrowly loss by Gore but trending slightly Republican. _ Ohio, which Gore lost by just 3 percentage points even after abandoning the state. Tens of thousands of jobs have been lost in Ohio (20 electoral votes) since Bush took office. _ Arizona (10 electoral votes), which has a growing Hispanic population. _ Any combination of smaller states, starting with New Hampshire (four votes), which shares a busy border with Kerry's home state of Massachusetts. Nevada (five votes) and Colorado are possibilities. "I think Colorado is a test," said independent pollster Floyd Ceruli of Denver. "It's a smart thing to do — you're out their probing the opposition's lines to see if there are any soft spots." Along those lines, Kerry advisers have checked the cost of air time in North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky. They insist that the Vietnam veteran and hunter could overcome the cultural hurdles that tripped up Gore in the South. Elliot Stonecipher, an independent political consultant in Louisiana, said the state is growing more Democratic every year but perhaps not quickly enough for Kerry. Even if he can't win, Kerry must play in the South. Any money Bush is forced to spend defensively in the region can't be spent in Ohio, Florida and northern battlegrounds. Associated Press Writer Will Lester contributed to this report. http://www.statesman.com/metrostate/content/shared-gen/ap/Presidential_Elections/Road_to_27.html#
Damn straight!, I got mine...try to come get 'em...The fragmentation of 62 grain SS109, M855 ball rounds is tremendous (especially with my 20 inch barrel, compared to the 16 inch!) btw, nobody on the left can classify/define an "assault rifle" besides cosmetic indifferance...so don't go there!
More poll numbers... Poll: Americans split on worthiness of war Majority of respondents say Iraq is going badly Friday, May 7, 2004 Posted: 10:28 AM EDT (1428 GMT) (CNN) -- A Gallup Poll released Friday shows Americans almost evenly split on the question of whether it was worth going to war in Iraq, with a majority feeling the situation there is going badly. The survey of 1,000 adults was taken Sunday through Tuesday, with a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. When asked if it was worth going to war in Iraq, 50 percent said it was, while 47 percent said it was not, the survey found. Public opinion was consistent over the month of April, when 137 U.S. forces were killed -- the deadliest month since the U.S. invasion last year -- wavering within a few percentage points over three polls. With the recent surge in Iraqi resistance, the U.S. public's assessment of how the war is going has slumped. Since early March, the percentage of Americans who think the war in Iraq is going "moderately badly" or "very badly" has increased from 43 percent to 62 percent in the latest poll. Over the same period, those feeling the war is going "very well" or "moderately well" has slipped from 55 percent to 47 percent. The Gallup Poll also asked Americans what they think is the most important issue facing the country today. As has been the case since Gallup started asking the question in November, the economy and unemployment/jobs were the top concerns. On noneconomic issues, the war in Iraq and terrorism topped the list. (Today: Rumsfeld faces angry Congress) In a Gallup Poll released Thursday, 55 percent of respondents disapproved of President Bush's handling of Iraq, while 42 percent approved. In a January survey, 61 percent said they approved of the Bush policy and 36 percent disapproved. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/07/gallup.war/index.html
Is it just me, or do polls seem so hollow ? I would like polls to be expanded as to what each respondent's thought process is based upon... and how the media fills the information that is arrived at the decision of the opinion... I would like a poll which asks: whether or not the media has presented all information and stories necessary...to come to a conclusion on the account of the situation in Iraq from an overall point of view as it relates to all perceived gains and setbacks...
Here is another thisway or thatway poll which means a hill of beans, but it does contain some wordbites that I will highlight which suggest that Kerry's chance to gain is slpping during a time he should obviously gain... Despite Bush's drop, Kerry has not been able to gain ground. WASHINGTON (May 7) - Public opinion of President Bush's handling of hot-button issues such as the economy and the war on terrorism is near the low point of his presidency, but Democratic rival John Kerry has been unable to capitalize on the Republican's slide, an Associated Press poll found. The AP-Ipsos poll found the race between Bush and Kerry remains close, with Bush's support at 46 percent, Kerry at 43 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 7 percent. Despite recent encouraging economic news on the growth of the economy and jobs - unemployment dipped from 5.7 percent to 5.6 percent in April - support for Bush's handling of the economy was at 43 percent, the lowest number since Ipsos began tracking that question at the start of 2002. Support for Bush's handling of foreign policy and terrorism, usually his strongest area, was at 50 percent, down from 55 percent a month ago. The current level almost matched the 51 percent who approved last November, before the capture of Saddam Hussein. Southerners and Republican women, two key Bush constituencies, have lost enthusiasm about his handling of foreign policy and terrorism, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. The poll comes at a time of increasing violence in Iraq, the deadliest month yet for U.S. troops and politically damaging allegations of prisoner abuse in Iraq that have Bush and his administration on the defensive. More in the poll disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq, 51 percent, than approve, 46 percent. Carl Adams, a 66-year-old retiree from Louin, Miss., said recent news about prisoner abuse in Iraq has made him feel "very much stronger against Bush and against the war." "I don't like American soldiers being killed," Adams said. "There should have been a way to work around this Iraq situation without soldiers getting killed." Despite the growing problems for Bush, Kerry has not been able to gain ground. The likely Democratic nominee launched a $25 million ad campaign this week to tell voters more about himself - notably his service in Vietnam and his career in public service. Other recent polls have found Kerry's personal image undercut by more than $60 million worth of ads by the Bush re-election campaign and a steady stream of Kerry-bashing by Republicans. "If I had to vote today, I would probably go with the devil I know," said 33-year-old political independent George Hillyer of Buffalo, N.Y., referring to the incumbent. Hillyer says he's closely watching Kerry, but has many questions. "I don't hear a 'this is what I would do' attitude," Hillyer said. "With Bush, when he says 'this is what I'm going to do,' you know what he's going to do." One encouraging sign for Kerry is that the number of weak Kerry supporters who say they would consider supporting Bush decreased in the last month. Instead, they would stay home or vote for Nader. When 58-year-old retiree Donna Bittle of Lugoff, S.C., talks about the presidential race, her focus is more on opposing Bush than supporting the Democratic candidate. "I can't think of his name, but it's not Bush," she said in explaining who she favors for president. "I'm definitely for John Kerry, I don't want nothing to do with Bush. I think Bush has made a mess - on the economy, in Iraq, on the high cost of medicine." Almost six in 10 Americans say the country is headed down the wrong track, about where that measure of pessimism has been since March. Southerners and Republican women were more likely than a month ago to say the country was headed down the wrong track. Gladys Blanchard, a 74-year-old Republican from Weymouth, Mass., said she's solidly behind Bush, and wants nothing to do with Kerry, a senator in her state for 19 years. "I think Kerry is like the Kennedys," she said. "He's one of Ted Kennedy's boys. I'm not particularly fond of the Kennedys except for John." The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 778 registered voters, was taken May 3-5 and has a margin of sampling error of plus
I probably won't bother to vote unless California looks to be in play come November. As for being pro-Bush, I am not a big fan of the Democratic stance on a lot of issues. Getting some pro-life SC justices in the next four years would be enough to get Bush my vote anyway. The issues, if any, that I agree with the Dems on are less important to me. If I thought they had a chance in hell of winning, I would probably vote libertarian, though their pro-choice stance bothers me. In an ideal world, I would be president, but since that is not going to happen, I will stick with Bush.
im sorry stupidmoniker i just dont understand how you can tell someone what to do with there body. im not saying that prolife or prochoice is right. im just saying that you or i do not have the right to tell the person what to do. if what they do is wrong then that should be taken care of in the long run. i also dont think the death penelty is right. if what they did is wrong they will pay for it in due time. lock them up for life if guilty, but dont kill them.
ROXRAN, the Bush campaign spent $50 million bucks in one month... one month. If the worst thing to happen to Kerry from being hammered during that month is that he stays around the same poll numbers as he had before, I'd say he did pretty good. But that wouldn't be true. Kerry hasn't got his campaign untracked and he has yet to find a coherent, easily articulated message. He makes about one good speech out of six, from what little I've seen. He's from the wrong state. He's fighting Ralph Nadir and Joe Lieberman while he's fighting the best funded re-election campaign in history. And he wasn't my choice for the nomination of my party. But you know what? I expect him to win. Why? Because Bush is that bad and American is figuring that out. Kerry will look damn good in comparison come November and he will clearly be the better choice. As the Rolling Stones put so well... No, you can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want And if you try sometime you find You get what you need Kerry is what we need.
I don't see it as telling someone what to do with their body. I don't want to derail the thread, so I won't go into it. Suffice it to say that we see abortion very differently. This is a total copout. Why have laws at all? You have no right not to tell someone to steal your car, and if it is wrong, then it should be taken care of in the long run. I agree, though not necessarily for the same reasons. I am against the death penalty because I see it as institutionalized murder, in light of the fact that it does not work as a deterrent. There is no benefit to society in executing prisoners instead of imprisoning them for life.
I'm voting for John Kerry because I doubt this country can survive another four years of George W. Bush.
My contention is that Kerry had to make a surging gain, because we don't know if the perceived 'low" in Irag will last much longer...Bush is sticking to the finalizing process in the transitional phase which has a target date...An upside is that we have had success against Sadr's militia people almost overwhelmingly in Najaf...We have had reports over the last 3 to 4 days of killing these thugs by the multiple dozens on a near daily basis...The lack of execution in Fallujah was not ideal, but to show progress and heat on Sadr and his men (which we have done) is indicative of progression in regards to stability...and the less uprisings lends perception to the common person in the United States that "things are going well",...and they will reflect this in the polls... Kerry should have a running mate and he clearly lacks a command for defined action...This worries me, as well as his stance and/or association with issues that conflict with me greatly...That is why I will vote Bush...
C'mon, Bush without a doubt... There are probably more libs on this site, so this doesn't truly represent the population or the outcome...
Kerry, but duh look at my sig. Here is a link to a "non-partisan" polling site. They have polls from several sources that show both in the numbers.
"Back in 2000 a Republican friend warned me that if I voted for Al Gore and he won, the stock market would tank, we'd lose millions of jobs, and our military would be totally overstretched. You know what? I did vote for Gore, he did win, and I'll be damned if all those things didn't come true!" --James Carville
