Just so everyone is aware, Lindor and Correa have exactly matching .883 career OPS and their WAR is 1 point apart.
I got 8 years 225 million and front load it some... Then you stick an opt out after 4 years... Entice him to opt out from the 4 years 95 million left so you end up with about 130 over 4 which is still less per year than lindor.. If he's a shell of himself at least the money declines over time... maybe put in a clause for games played that allows them to defer some of the money if he's hurt too much...
I totally agree. He is going to hit free agency as a 27 year old player that hasn’t entered his prime that plays a premium position. While he’s had injury issues, he has a WAR 1 point lower than a guy that just got $341 million, but that has 1000 more at bats to get that 1 extra WAR. Additionally, he’s shown that he can be nailz in the playoffs when it matters most. Why in the world would he sign some lowball extension when somebody is going to give him $300 million+ next summer?
That was always going to happen... I'm saying that's the pitch... he misses 40 games it may be moot... You have to get close to lindor per year to not insult him. They have plenty to spend with Springer gone and Verlander/Greinke right behind...
He’s 26. You would expect an 8 year deal to take him through his prime. He’d expect to get paid prime money at 33 and 34, so I don’t know if he’d want declining money through a contract. He’s not some 30 year old free agent
Correa came up the exact same time as Lindor. Their rookie years were in 2015 and they both played 99 games that year. Lindor has played 777 games in his career compared to 604 games for Correa. Nobody knows Correa's medicals better than the Astros. They low-balled him at 6/120 because of his injury problems, and more specifically because of his back. He's all world talent but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Yes, if he FINALLY plays a full season and puts up the 30HR and .950 OPS he will get 250-300 million or more. If I am the Astros I'm not comfortable going over 8 years around 25 million. If that doesn't get it done for Correa so be it and Correa can try and stay healthy this year to get the big money elsewhere. Astros will have money to spend and could land really good players at multiple positions on shorter term deals so they have room in the future to extend guys like Tucker, Alvarez,Framber, Urquidy, etc.
Who even goes after him? Small market teams are out most likely: tb, cle, det, kc, min, oak, mia, cin, pit Teams that already have a SS: Bos, SD, NYY, NYM, tor, was, maybe phi, and maybe ATL So half the league is left. Bal, chw, chc, laa, seattle, texas, stl, sf, and arizona I didn't count Colorado or LAD since they have their own guys that they need to sign and likely would rather retain story or seager. I think realistically it's between SF, LAA, and Texas. If I'm Carlos I bet on one of those teams to pony up
Detroit has a history of spending money so wouldn't totally count them out. White Sox have Moncada at 3rd and Anderson at SS. Don't see them paying for Correa. Phillies are a maybe.They signed Didi for 2 years and have a young guy in Bohm that was very good last year in limited play. Their interest in Correa probably depends how well those 2 guys play. Atlanta already is paying Acuna, Ozuna, and Wilson somewhat sizeable contracts for 2022. They also have to pay Freddie Freeman since he hits free agency after this season. They still have another year on SS Swansby under arbitration in 2022. MAYBE they could put Correa at 3rd but seems unlikely. Correa is more valuable at SS. His career OPS is 833. Twelve 3rd baseman had a higher OPS than that in 2019. He's not worth the mega bucks at 3rd base. I would say possible but very unlikey they target Correa. Angels have Pujols coming off the books so that is possible. They really need to spend on pitching. I would say the most likely teams are Giants, Mariners, Texas, Angels, and MAYBE the cubs if correa outplays Baez significantly.
At this point it seems a short deal isn't even an option, so I would rather let him walk instead of giving him 200 million. Could he outperform that figure, absolutely, we know what he can do if he stays healthy. But I would rather just have that 25-30 million available on short term basis to fill holes yearly instead of going all in on one injury prone player.
I just wish Astros could come up with something creative: 8 years $175M base ($21.875M/yr) Opt out after 4 years would allow him to reset if he's staying healthy Full no trade clause Vesting options for Year 9 and 10 at $35M per year if average of 145 games played in previous 2 years and .900 OPS Achievable $500k bonus for .900 OPS $1M bonus for 25 home runs $1M bonus for 30 home runs $2M bonus for 150 games played Stretch $1M bonus for 35 home runs $1M bonus for silver slugger $1M bonus for gold glove finalist $1M bonus for gold glove winner $2M bonus for top 5 MVP Puts him over $30M/year if he achieves these, if he stays healthy he should at least get over $25M/yr with incentives
I don't think any level of creativity or logic will get it done anymore. As has been pointed out, every number we are talking about is far more than anyone needs to live any lifestyle they choose. This is about ego and his placement among the baseball elite (not saying Correa is particularly egotistical - that is true of all elite professional contracts these days). He simply cannot accept a deal that will be compared on unfavorable terms to Lindor's, even if the nuance makes the deal fair or valuable. He could do 5/$170 and the media would run with "Correa signs for half of Lindor." Neither he nor his agent will risk that.
Don’t know if he’ll be back, won’t be mad with the Astros if doesn’t work out, but I’ll never diminish what he’s done for the team. One of the greatest, most clutch Astros of all time. Legend.
