Lets hope this continues. March's numbers were revised to 337,000, hopefully the uptick contiues. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...07/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy&cid=668&ncid=716 Companies Add 288,000 Jobs to Payrolls 2 minutes ago By LEIGH STROPE, AP Labor Writer WASHINGTON - Employers added 288,000 jobs to their payrolls in April as the nation's unemployment rate slipped to 5.6 percent, reinforcing hopes for a sustained turnaround in the jobs market that had lagged for so long. Payrolls have risen now for eight straight months, with 867,000 new jobs created so far this year, the Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Friday. The strengthening jobs market comes just in time to aid President Bush (news - web sites)'s re-election efforts, which were in question a few months ago based on his economic record. Bush is on track to be the first president since the Great Depression to have lost jobs under his watch. But the spate of hiring gains in recent months have shrank those losses to about 1.5 million. Hiring was widespread last month, with the service sector leading the way. Professional and business services employment rose substantially, by 123,000. In that category, gains were in employment services, including temporary help firms, services to buildings and dwellings, management and technical consulting services and architectural and engineering services.
This is excellent. I hope more and more of the unemployed get some new jobs, and that they are jobs that pay a decent wage.
Hmmm? Who do those guys putting the statistic together work for? They wouldn't do anything to make the report look more favorable would they? Something like removing the hard core unemployed (those that have given up looking) from the number so it shows a net gain instead of a loss. Nah.
Yeah, politicians shamelessly manipulate definitions and statistics (especially in employment figures -- the real unemployment number is close to 20 million), but I'll take any good news right now.
a little more detailed article http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/07/news/economy/jobless/index.htm?cnn=yes Job growth rocks again Payroll growth of 288,000 comes in well above forecasts; unemployment dips to 5.6 percent. May 7, 2004: 12:28 PM EDT By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Employers added jobs at a surprisingly rapid clip for the second straight month in April and the unemployment rate fell, a government report showed Friday, as the nation's labor market finally showed signs of sustained improvement. While good news for people looking for jobs, the report also makes it much more likely that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates sooner rather than later -- which raised some worries on Wall Street. Payrolls grew by 288,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported, well above the 173,000 economists had forecast, according to a survey by Reuters. The number even topped the highest forecasts of about 250,000. The department also revised its reading on March job growth to 337,000 jobs from the 308,000 reported last month. That gave the economy an average monthly gain of 217,000 a month so far this year, even with weaker-than-expected growth in January and February. The unemployment rate eased to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent in March. After the economy lost 2.7 million jobs from the start of 2001 until August 2003 -- well after the recession ended -- payrolls have now grown for eight straight months, adding 1.1 million jobs. Even the manufacturing sector added 21,000 jobs last month after shedding jobs for 42 straight months -- until a revision showed a gain in the sector each of the last three months. Construction added 18,000 jobs and retail added 23,000 jobs, while the business and professional services gained 123,000. The strength of the jobs report was trumpeted by Labor Secretary Elaine Chao. "This has been an across-the-board gain," said Chao appearing on CNNfn's Market Call. "All that (data) bodes for increased hiring." But Gene Sperling, economic adviser to Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, said that the strong April report did not make up for job losses earlier in the Bush administration. "We're in a very deep hole on job market," Sperling said on the same program. "We've had a couple of steps in the right direction, but we have a lot farther to dig ourselves out." Still, economists said there definitive signs of strength in the report. Average hourly wages posted a relatively strong 0.3 percent gain, climbing 5 cents to $15.59 -- the biggest increase since a 6-cent gain last July. Average hours work remained unchanged, but that could also be a sign of renewed strength in the labor market. "Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest," wrote Sung Won Sohn, chief economic offficer of Wells Fargo banks. "Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker." On Wall Street, stocks were mixed but Treasurybond prices sank after the report as investors bet higher rates were now a foregone conclusion. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.75 percent from 4.60 percent late Thursday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Securities, said he was surprised to see stock investors trying to find positive news in the numbers, rather than focusing just on the risks that accompany higher rates. "They're looking at the growth in the economy and the earnings. They've bought into the fact the economy is growing," he said. Investors were betting that it is now virtually certain that the Fed will raise its target for a key short-term rate when the central bank's policy-makers meet in June, rather than waiting for August or September. Traders at the Chicago Board of Trade Friday were betting on a 90 percent chance the Fed would raise the fed-funds rate a quarter point in June, up from a 56 percent chance Thursday and a 42 percent chance on Tuesday immediately after the Fed meeting. But several economists cautioned that the Fed will weigh more economic data -- particuarly on inflation -- before starting to raise the fed funds rate. The overnight bank lending rate stands at 1 percent, the lowest in more than 40 years. While the March employment report had started to raise expectations for a Fed rate hike, some analysts thought the number was a fluke. "The two months of favorable data allow us to start connecting the dots," said Anthony Chan, chief economist for Banc One Investment Advisors. "It gives us a picture of a rapidly improving labor market. I think we can categorically say we have seen a sea change in labor market environment at this time." Chan said it's too soon to suggest that a Fed rate hike at the June meeting is certain. He said central bank policy-makers will look at information beyond the headline job creation number. Economists said that upcoming reports on retail and wholesale prices are more important that the employment reports for the Fed, which is mandated to control inflation and keep the economy growing. "Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside," said Chan.
Instead of looking at news occurrences for what they are, I've found that most of us respond to news based on how we think others will respond. We don't react to the news -- we react to the reaction of the news.
i have a macro final tomorrow morning...and of course im not studying but reading this topic made me pick up the book and post this. every month the BLS produces data on unemployment and on other aspects of the labor market, such as types of employment, length of the average workweek, and the duration of unemployment. these data come from a regular survey of about 60,000 households, called the current population survey. based on the answer to the survey question, the BLS places each adult (aged 16 and older) in each surveyed household into one of three categories a) employed b) unemployed c) not in the labor force. a person is ocnsidered employed if he or she spent some of the previous week working at apaid job. a person is unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff or islooking for a job. a person who fits netiher of the first two categories such as a full time studnet a homemaker or a retiree is not in the labor force. interestingly this book is written by mankiw. he's on the economic team of the president...and isthe one that said outsourcing to india is better for the economy inthe long run or something and got in hot water.
These statistics are a burecratic function, and the executive branch, as a general rule, won't interfere. An attempt to manipulate the results would be picked up on pretty quickly by the opposing party. The number of people searching for work does not affect the number of jobs added. The deffinition of the unemployment figure is the percentage of people seeking work, who aren't employed. People who have "given up looking for work" have always been, and should be removed to keep the statistic valid over time. People leave the job market for many reasons in a down economy -- early retirement, go back to school until the market gets better, etc., reasons which shouldn't "count against" the statistic. Those that are merely discouraged are probably still counted. If you want to attack the statistic, you should point out that it does not include those who are underemployed -- people who are employed in a position that is below their skillset -- the chemical engineer employeed at McDonalds or the rocket scientist employeed as a teacher -- not by choice, but because they needed any job to make the ends meet. Still, unemployment at 5.7 percent isn't catastophic. The natural rate of unemployment is around 4.5-5.0 percent. It's actually harmful to the economy for unemployment to get below this level. The rate should be better -- and it wil get there. But it's not unexpected to see these types of numbers coming out of a recession. The only reason the job statistics (especially with the positive job growth) for cries of doom and gloom is that it is an election year.
Those that are discouraged are not counted. http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1657 AT LEAST OHIO'S NOT A SWING STATE: It's never good for a president when this happens. From today's gaggle with Scott McLellan aboard Air Force One: Q About a year ago, April 24th, last year, the President went to Canton, Ohio. He went to the Timken Company. I don't know if you remember the trip, I wasn't on it. He went to a bearings factory, part of the Timken Company, touted his economic plans and talked about jobs and growth. Timken announced today that they're shutting down that plant that the President visited a year ago. I just wonder if that's ironic, that the President touted his economic strategy, doesn't appear to be working?
Didn't say that, it was just an ironic and sad twist for those Bush supporters. Still waiting for my 401K to turn around, though...
