Rumor Mill/Trade Talks

I agree that he had very good potential as a spacing 4/ rebounder and his weak side shot blocking was tremendous. He displayed anger outbursts before entering the NBA. Rudy T said he found no reasons for concern with him . I don't think the Rockets did any homework on his mental status at all unfortunately. He wasn't worth 3 FRP's, but it took courage to go after him.

 

Or if we have to cough up a 5-14 pick to OKC, that would leave us with FOUR picks in the 15-25 range this year. Might be able to talk someone at #1 or #2 into a 3-for-1 pick trade.

 

I remember Eddie Griffin absolutely decimating Drew Gooden in SL.

His rebounding and shot-blocking instincts were absolutely elite, and holy lord his offensive game seemed like Rasheed Wallace If he could have gotten his head screwed on right.

All in all, I'd make the same gamble again for a similarly talented player.

 

Something to keep in mind with that 2023 Milwaukee pick...

we know Miami was planning to go hard after Giannis before he signed that extension. If Milwaukee fails to make the finals over the next couple of seasons, there’s a good chance they decide to tear down, and what would be more valuable to them than getting back their own unprotected pick?

So if you’re Miami, and Houston offers that pick and Oladipo for Herro, I think you accept. Not sure Houston does it, because the ability to hold Milwaukee hostage in the future is very valuable. All depends on how you value Herro.

 

I'd be a bit scared to lose the Milwaukee pick, tbh. Excellent observations @finsraider

 

Herro is so overrated. He has no upside at all. He is a low lottery type in a moderately good draft at best.

 

There are some older analyses in 2018 from Kevin Pelton that established a chart based on what draft picks should be worth relative to each other based on smoothed out career outcomes. When you take into account injuries and busts, it would seem that acquiring lots of low first rounders can give you about equivalent value to that of the top of the draft. However, I do think that there is a very practical limit to how many rookies can contribute at the same time on the same team. If you split out the #22, #23 and #25 drafted players where each plays a clearly defined role on separate teams, their aggregate performance might exceed that of what might be expected from a player drafted #3. However, it's realistically very hard to find quality minutes for 2 rookies at one time, let alone 3. What most likely happens is out of your 3 rookies, one breaks out early and absorbs all of the development minutes. Then the other two inevitably get left behind and labeled as busts, hopefully catching on with other teams later in their careers.

Because of this scarcity of minutes, the actual price that teams pay to trade up in the draft comes at a significant premium over what each pick actually delivers.



Just from 2019 you had New Orleans / Atlanta trading:

#4: 2420
#57: 260
Future 2nd: ~400
Solomon Hill's Contract: $12M
Total: ~3000 and saving $12M

for

#8: 2040
#17: 1300
#35: 550
Total: 3890 + absorbing $12M

If you want to put a pricetag on dumping $12M in salary at a mid 20s pick (880), you have Atlanta sending out about 4770 in draft pick value for 3000 in return, about a 60% premium.

The Celtics traded #20 for #24 and #33, a swap of 1160 for 930+590 = 1520, which is about a 30% premium.

In 2018 you had Atlanta/Dallas trading #3 for #5 and a future first (#10), so 2640 for 2270+1870 = 4140, again, a 56% premium,

Lower in the draft, you had Phoenix/Philadelphia trading #10 for #16 and a future first (~#22), so 1870 for 1350+1040 = 2390, a 27% premium.

 

Going to just drop this right here.

Discuss.

 

You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters.

Good stuff.

 

House and the Wizards’ protected first it is!

 

I don’t think any of his stats look like low lottery. He looks legit, though having a slightly down year from 3. But he’s finishing 70% at the rim, which is how to judge the long term effectiveness of a scoring guard.

 

And most importantly for a kid his age, he is a GYM FREAK. The kid works as hard as anyone in the NBA.

 

Sorry D-rock, hard pass.

We can’t even get that for Oladipo who’s the far better player. AG isn’t worth that.

 

I think he’s also a good fit offensively next to KPJ.

What I want to avoid this time around is getting one super creator without weapons around him. Harden needed what he has now...scorers that allow him to just run the show. KPJ needs that.

 

And don’t forget he’s got an insane amount of confidence. Just look at the chick he’s dating.

 

NYK: Oladipo
BKN: Burks, Clark
ORL: Dinwiddie, Knox, Rivers, McLemore + Blazers FRP + Nets SRP + TE
HOU: AG, Bamba, Ntilikina + Mavs FRP

Rockets improve FRP position by swapping Portland's FRP for Dallas'.

 

KPJ needs more than that, he also needs DEFENSE around him.

Herro is in short supply of that.

And I would not call Herro a super scorer. Dipo is more prolific than Herro in that dept. Plus Dipo is a legit 2 way player.

Other than his youth, Dipo is just better than Herro.

 

Ya, sorry, didn't mean to imply I knew something behind the scenes.

 

I'm glad you did.

It was fun.

 

Big dog dream died. Sorry Trey. I gotta ask though... Have you tried your sources? You da last insider on this board to hit something prett accurately.