Wouldn’t trade Wood for it, but if you could get OKC to go lottery protected for a Heat asset like Precious in an Oladipo trade I would be all in. OKC would then have a first pick from last year, and their own lottery pick, would also throw in House if necessary.
That's a great way to put it. Both teams have a complement of long term role players (for us, a guy like Tate,but potentially KJ Martin, and even House. They have guys like Dort). But they have only one guy who is easy to get excited about as a star caliber, while we've got a pair -- though both of ours have some associated risk factors. If OKC comes away with 2 top eight-ish picks (imagine if they jump into the top 3 and bump us out of protection), it'll be hard to catch up to them. If we land in the top 4 and extinguish what was otherwise a disastrous pick swap at no cost, that's a huge sigh of relief. I don't want to get too far ahead, but it's easy to get at least a bit excited if this team adds another high level talent to Wood and KPJ, with Wall hopefully settling into a veteran leader role. If you can extract some value from Oladipo, all the better.
Only way I do this is if they remove the protection entirely. It’s already top 4 protected. What’s the point of giving up our best asset to add a protection for pick #5? By pick #5, Cade, Green, Suggs, and Mobley are gone.
Absolutely. If the Rockets end up with Cunningham to add to Wood and Porter, then the complexion of the Rockets drastically changes.
So keeping this in mind. There is little to no reason to trade Wood for a shot at getting pick 5 incase it falls there. There is no guarantee any pick in the draft is ever as good as Wood is now. Cunningham is all that matters and he'll be there if we get #1.
I agree with you that high lottery picks, especially in this draft, come at a premium and are extremely valuable. But 2-3 presumed "low" firsts has to be worth more than a 15% increase in odds. For that, I'd want the whole protection taken off or at least for it to be dropped to like top 7-8 protected. An extra 15% feels like it's worth something like one low first and House. If you give up three firsts, get the extra 15% chance and then ultimately don't get that pick, you've just set your rebuild back so much further. Three low firsts still gives you three chances to possibly add a key franchise building block, and all it takes is one injury for a low first rounder to become a lottery pick.
Wood is worth more than just a lottery protected from OKC. If OKC wants to give up their pick for Wood I might consider it. Then we would have two lottery picks both with a chance for top 4. Wood is really good.
The Thunder would 100% do that and it would be a ridiculous overpay by the Rockets. The Thunder currently only have a 15% chance at getting the 5th pick. It could go up to 27.8% or 47.9% but it could also go down to 7.2% 2.2% or 0%. Based on math I think the value of extending it to 5 is one first round pick at most because the odds of the Rockets actually getting the 5th pick aren't very high.
I would do our to late FRP’s this year for the swap to go away. That’s about it. Forget about Wood. If you are going to trade Wood, GSW would give us way more. Probably Min pick and Wiseman (who I don’t think will ever be any good).
I agree. And I think it's something OKC would really have to think about. Let's say we offer the Portland and Mil pick to remove the swap. The Thunder now have their lottery pick, Miami's pick, Portland's pick, the Bucks pick, and maybe GS pick. They can control a lot of the draft because they will have 1/6 of the picks. If they love the player at 5 they can probably move up and get him. They will also have lots of offers from teams that want a pick. Our pick being top 4 protected really limits the home run level of them getting our pick. Miami isn't guaranteed to make the playoffs. Their pick would probably be around 11-14 if they miss the playoffs. Which means the best the Thunder get from us is to move up 9 spots and that's a best case scenario. Is that worth passing on two additional firsts that would probably let you move up anyways. I'm optimistic too because I don't love Kuminga who looks like he will be 5. The Rockets are unlikely to miss out on a true superstar with a 1-4 protection which is where they are historically drafted.
yeah, I really can’t conceive of a deal that would incentivize me to trade Wood. Even if a team like Boston gave us the Harden package... Boston is young enough that they might be good for every year you have their picks and swaps. I want to win as soon as possible. Wood is key to that possibility. He’s probably not 25 y/o Harden, but he’s not far off. And then there’s that KPJ kid...
It is all interesting to consider. Your point is valid I think though. The #1 pick in this draft is worth a lot more than the #4-5 (at least for most teams). There may be some teams that really covet Suggs or Mobley but for most Cunningham and Green are the top 2 prospects.
If they end up at 1, they have exactly the same odds as now - 52% in top 4, 48% at 5. You can't give up that much to gain a 15% chance of landing the 5th pick, assuming they stay in the current spot. But if the Thunder will release the entire protection, it might be worth 3-4 picks/swaps, assuming that the Rockets will rise a bit in the standings.
