I’m not saying it was a lab leak. I’m saying it could be, and here are the reasons why. You seem to be ignoring the reality that the Wuhan lab was engaged in research that took benign viruses and made them dangerous to humans. The same research that has been called dangerous over and over because of its potential to cause a pandemic. Research that was banned during the Obama administration. https://www.scientificamerican.com/...d-the-next-lab-accident-result-in-a-pandemic/ If there was solid proof that the virus was natural the debate would be over. There are plenty of respected scientists who say a lab leak is a possibility. Ignoring all the evidence that it could have come from the Wuhan lab is disingenuous.
Didn't ignore it. Because something was done in the past, was deem dangerous, isn't proof that it was done with Covid19 virus. That's at best, suspicious. The very fact that it has legitimate concerns about the dangers of engineering a virus and that it was put on pause for a few years probably give pause to the idea of using the method, or you would think very high level requirements for safety and recording keeping if it was ever used again - but this is nothing but a guess on my part. It is not evidence for anything. You could argue that the Chinese scientists knew this and start to hide records (yes, this would be getting into suspicious ground at best and for me, conspiracy ground). If they find the animal the virus originates from, then yes, it's over. The lack of finding the origin doesn't mean all theories are equally the same. The prevalent scientific view is it's natural. To change that view, there needs to be good evidence. Suspicious is cool and all, can be made very vivid and lively by a great essayist, but they are not evidence. Go Journalist and Scientist - you will be famous if you break the prevalent view.
Wildlife Farms In China Likely Source Of Pandemic, Say WHO Investigators : Goats and Soda : NPR AILSA CHANG, HOST: One of the big mysteries around this COVID-19 pandemic is how it all got started. Scientists agree the virus came from a bat. But how did a bat virus make its way into people? The World Health Organization recently sent a team to China to investigate this very question. Its report will be released soon. One scientist offered NPR's Michaeleen Doucleff a glimpse of what they figured out. MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF, BYLINE: For about 20 years now, the Chinese government has been promoting a unique project in the southern part of the country - taking wild animals trafficked illegally and farming them in captivity. Peter Daszak is a disease ecologist at the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance. He says the farms included exotic animals like pangolins, civet cats and bamboo rats. PETER DASZAK: These are big, fat rats that people eat. They breed very easily. You feed them bamboo. You put them in a concrete bunker, and they breed. And you sell them, and you make a lot of money. DOUCLEFF: Daszak was part of WHO's recent mission to China. He says the government promoted the farms for one big reason. DASZAK: To alleviate rural populations out of poverty. DOUCLEFF: To give people jobs. And the scheme worked. DASZAK: It was very successful. In 2016, they had 14 million people employed in wildlife farms. It was $77 billion of U.S. dollars of industry. DOUCLEFF: Then on February 24 last year, right when the outbreak in Wuhan was winding down, the Chinese government made a complete about-face. DASZAK: The Chinese government put out a declaration - we're going to stop the farming of wildlife for food. DOUCLEFF: They shut down the farms. DASZAK: They sent out instructions to the farmers of how to safely dispose of the animals. DOUCLEFF: Why would the government do this? Daszak thinks because those farms may be where the pandemic began, the spot where the coronavirus jumped from a bat into another animal and then into people. DASZAK: I do think that SARS-CoV-2 first got into people in South China. It's looking that way. DOUCLEFF: Here's why. First, he says, many farms are located in a province called Yunnan, where scientists found a bat virus that's 96% similar to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Second, the farms breed animals that are known to carry coronaviruses, such as civet cats. Finally, during WHO's mission to China, Daszak said the team found new evidence that animals from these farms were being sold at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, where an early outbreak of COVID occurred. LINFA WANG: There was a massive transmission going on at that market for sure. DOUCLEFF: That's Linfa Wang. He's a virologist in Singapore with the Duke Global Health Institute. He is also part of the WHO's team investigating the origin of the pandemic. Wang says, after the outbreak at the Huanan market, Chinese scientists went there and looked for the virus in the stalls selling live animals. WANG: In the live animal section, they got lots of positive samples. They even have two samples they were able to isolate live virus. DOUCLEFF: And so Daszak and others on the WHO team believe that the coronavirus most likely came to the market from the wildlife farms in southern China. DASZAK: And China closes that down for a reason. And the reason was back in February 2020, they believe this was the most likely pathway. And when the WHO report comes out, we believe it's the most likely pathway. DOUCLEFF: And so, Daszak says, the next step is to figure out specifically which animal carries the virus and on which farm. Michaeleen Doucleff, NPR News.
German scientist says 99.9% chance coronavirus leaked from Wuhan lab. TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A new study based on a year of research by a German physicist has concluded that the Wuhan coronavirus started with an accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, who specializes in nanoscience at the University of Hamburg, on Feb. 18 published a 105-page report on ReasearchGate titled "Study on the Origin of the Coronavirus Pandemic." The study was carried out from January to December 2020 based on scientific literature, print articles, online media, and correspondence with international researchers. In his report, Wiesendanger listed six "significant indications" that the coronavirus pandemic started with a leak from the WIV. No natural host found Wiesendanger points out that unlike SARS and MERS, no intermediate host between bats and humans has been found more than a year since the start of the pandemic. Thus far, there is no evidence for the zoonotic theory to explain the outbreak. Indeed, during the joint China-WHO report issued on Feb. 9, Liang Wannian, head of the Chinese National Health Commission's Expert Panel of COVID-19 Response, stated that 50,000 samples of wild animals from 300 different species (including bats) as well as 11,000 farm animals in 31 Chinese provinces — taken between November 2019 and March 2020 — had all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19. Well-suited for hACE2 receptors The researcher claimed that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is "astonishingly effective" at binding to human receptor cells (hACE2). He said this is due to its special hACE2 binding domains paired with the furin cleavage sites of the virus' telltale spike protein. He stated that this is the first time a coronavirus has exhibited both characteristics and that it points to a "non-natural origin." Within the betacoronaviruses of sarbecovirus lineage B, the polybasic furin cleavage site is unique to SARS-CoV-2, according to News Medical Life Sciences. Wrong bats in Wuhan Wiesendanger noted that there were no bats sold at the infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where the first known superspreader event began. Liang has stated that no animals or "animal products" had tested positive for the virus there and that individuals who contracted COVID early on had not visited the market. The types of bats endemic to Wuhan do not carry the kinds of coronaviruses associated with SARS and COVID-19. Those coronaviruses are only found in horseshoe bats nearly 2,000 kilometers away in the caves of Yunnan Province. What Wuhan does have, however, is the WIV, which holds "one of the largest collections of bat pathogens in the world," observed Wiesendanger. He asserted that it is "extremely unlikely" bats made the 2,000-km journey to Wuhan and started an outbreak that just happened to be near the WIV and at least two other labs researching bat viruses in the city. History of making chimeras The scientist then mentioned that a research group, which is headed by Shi Zhengli (石正麗), also known as "Bat Woman," has since 2007 been researching how spike proteins in natural and chimeric SARS-like coronaviruses bind to the ACE2 receptors in the cells of humans, bats, and other animals. Wiesendanger alleged that the goal of this research is to make these viruses "more infectious, more dangerous, and more fatal." Lax safety measures Wiesendanger wrote that the safety measures had been "documented as being insufficient" before the start of the coronavirus epidemic. In early March of last year, photos taken in 2018 from within the lab surfaced showing a warped seal on the door to a freezer holding pathogens. In 2017, Chinese state-run TV released a video showing WIV scientists talking about being bitten by bats. Other footage from the program shows scientists collecting potentially infectious bat feces while wearing short sleeves and shorts and with no noticeable personal protective equipment other than porous nitrile gloves. Direct indications of lab leak Wiesendanger then cites several incidents that are indicative of a lab accident, such as reports that a young researcher in the lab, identified as Huang Yanling, was allegedly "patient zero" and had disappeared after contracting the disease. The WIV and Chinese government have vehemently denied she was infected, but over a year later, her whereabouts are still unknown, and all information about her has been scrubbed from the WIV website. He also touched on analysis by American intelligence agencies of a private report purporting to have found evidence of a "shutdown" and "hazardous event" allegedly taking place at the WIV in October 2019. More recently, on Jan. 15, the U.S. State Department released a reportstating that several scientists inside the lab had become ill with "symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses" in the fall of 2019. In an interview with the German newspaper ZDF, the scientist claimed he is "99.9 percent sure" that the coronavirus emerged from the laboratory. He did, however, concede that the current body of evidence pointing to a lab leak, although extensive, is currently "circumstantial." During an interview on "Face the Nation" on Sunday (Feb. 21), former Deputy National Security Advisor (DNSA) Mathew Pottinger said that the "Chinese military was doing secret classified animal experiments in that same laboratory" as early as 2017. He added that there is "good reason to believe" an outbreak of a "flu-like illness" had occurred among the scientists at the WIV in the fall of 2019, just before the first cases of a new type of pneumonia were being reported in Wuhan https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4134301
Well, there is the 0.1%! Do science get up to 99.9% sureness based on "circumstantial" evidences? Really curious for those this in field... @B-Bob. Fact-Checking Prof. Roland Wiesendanger Covid Claims About Wuhan Laboratory | Medika Life Prof. Roland Wiesendanger is a highly respected German scientist, published in hundreds of medical journals and honored repeatedly by colleagues and institutions in the scientific community. His field of specialty is nanotechnology and he is a three-time recipient of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grant. You’d probably never ever have heard his name, but that’s about to change if the internet has anything to do with it. Two days ago, the professor who teaches at the University of Hamburg, released a 100-page report that he personally prepared on the alleged origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In the report he makes the following claims, claims that he openly states are not based on scientific certainty, but rather deductive logic and circumstantial evidence. According to Prof. Wiesendanger and the 100-page report (available here on Research Gate) he has released, he has come to the following conclusion. ... Fact or Fallacy ‘the zoonotic theory as a possible explanation for the pandemic has no sound scientific basis.’ We won’t waste much time on this. Suggesting that simply because an agent has not yet been located for the transmission, that one does not exist, is simply flawed logic. The theory of animal to human transmission does have precedence and that is why it must be explored to its conclusion. We are a long way from that point. a special (furin) cleavage site of the coronavirus spike protein indicates a non-natural origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen Again, flawed logic, from someone who should know not to confuse correlation with causation. Simply because no previous instance exists doesn’t imply the virus was manufactured by humans, nor does this allow us to make any other inferences. You could argue aliens developed it, based on the same logic, so sorry, but no. Strike 2. It is extremely unlikely that bats from this distance of nearly 2,000 km would have naturally made their way to Wuhan In 2012 a coronavirus was discovered in bats living in a mine in Mojiang in China, some 1200 km’s (not 2000 as claimed) from Wuhan. Labeled RaTG13 by scientists, the virus was the closest know version of a coronavirus to be discovered in animals. It wasn’t, and still isn’t, the SAR-CoV2 virus. We still haven’t found the carrier, if it originated in animals, as is currently suspected by the majority of scientists. WHO scientists have also highlighted in their recent report that contact between bats and people in the Wuhan area is uncommon. The fact this is the currently preferred theory doesn’t preclude all others and science has been known to be wrong before, ask Galileo. So while we can agree that bats may be ruled out at a later date, it still doesn’t point conclusively to the laboratory as the source. It merely rules out bats as the likely source. The Wuhan City Virological Institute has been genetically manipulating coronaviruses for many years with the goal of making them more contagious, dangerous, and deadly to humans It’s interesting that the publication lists no links to the ‘numerous reports documented in the medical literature that it refers to. The Wuhan Institute of Virology did in fact have access to the coronavirus and it would have engaged in research on the virus. Given the purpose behind the Institute, it would be foolish to claim otherwise and the Institute has never denied possession of the coronavirus (not the SARS-CoV2 strain). They have however repeatedly insisted that there were no safety lapses that could have resulted in any virus escaping from the laboratory. The institute is home to the China Center for Virus Culture Collection, the largest virus bank in Asia and which preserves more than 1,500 strains, according to its website. Are there occasional safety issues at the laboratory? Probably, but it is unlikely they occur in the P4 wing of the institute. Safety protocols are extremely high and adhered to meticulously in areas where many of the highly lethal viruses scientists are working with, are potentially fatal if contracted. These institutes are also subject to international oversight and there is a regular presence of foreign scientists at this, and other similar institutes. The takeaway There is no substance to any of the professors claims and it is our opinion that he should retract his conjectural report. Scientists are highly skeptical of Dr. Roland Wiesendanger’s, and he openly admitted to ZDF, a German newspaper, that the report was not based on science, but merely designed to spark public debate. While no one can, at this point, claim with complete certainty that the laboratory in Wuhan was not involved in the origins of the pandemic, the opposite is equally true, and to engage in this kind of false news is professionally disingenuous and suggest alternate motives. We’d like to suggest to the professor, that abusing scientific publications for the purposes of “sparking public debate” is in fact highly questionable. We would further argue that accusing a foreign power and your foreign compatriots of unleashing a pandemic they “engineered” is both irresponsible and dangerous, particularly if your allegations are based on circumstantial evidence. Allegations, that are, in effect, baseless. We were under the impression the professor dealt with science and evidence-based conclusions. Clearly, this is no longer the case. May we respectfully remind him, that if he continues to attempt to emulate Sherlock Holmes, he has not yet exhausted the impossible, and so, cannot begin to claim the improbable. His current course of action does a disservice to both science and his profession and will serve only as fuel for future conspiracy theories. Not happy with our simplistic public-facing breakdown. Let’s see what an expert in Covid research says on the topic. A Medika Life author and SARS-CoV2 researcher, Julian Willett, MD adds his voice. Dr. Roland Wiesendanger is a PhD physicist and lacks medical qualifications. His personal research is not medical related (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=roland+wiesendanger). Expert opinions on topics tend to be from those who have extensive experience in a given discipline. His claims make being an expert even more important (especially firm scientific evidence is further required). The WHO and its health team, made up of physicians, physician-scientists, and scientists all specializing in medical topics and often virology have deemed that it is extremely unlikely that the virus came from a lab. I personally am a physician-scientist investigating COVID-19 genetics, for my Ph.D., both the virus’s genetics and the human genetics associated with the virus. I trust the WHO’s findings and agree with the responses to Dr. Wiesendanger’s points by the author of this article. There are already increased hate crimes done against those of Asian ancestry due to it publicly arising first in Asia. Such a work by Dr. Wiesendanger utilizing baseless claims only provides fuel to such hate.
Good point and counterpoint regarding the possibility of this being a human made / altered virus. From both Dr. Wisendanger's piece there doesn't seem to be anything that would rule out a natural origin and agree with fact check of him that "99.9% chance Virus Leaked from Wuhan Lab" seems hyperbolic and more for grabbing headlines than based on even the science that he presents. Dr. Wisendanger does present a lot of compelling evidence that isn't completely countered. The counter argument rest on the correct point that just because a natural vector between bats that are geographically distant from Wuhan hasn't been found doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It is correct to point out though that such a vector might actually not exist and given how virulent COVID-19 is it would seem like if a vector did exist it would be in enough numbers and close enough to humans to allow the virus to mutate and jump to humans. From reading both pieces the most I can take is that while it isn't anywhere close to certain that the virus came from the Wuhan lab it doesn't absolutely rule it out either.
I've resigned to the fact that we may never know for sure what happened but I will say this: The ENTIRE world now needs to be treating these labs as though they are holding nuclear bombs. The impact of one of these viruses getting out is catastrophic... maybe even worse than a Nuke accidentally going off. There needs to be a new treaty of some sort with all developed countries to form an independent entity that monitors ALL countries for infectious disease safety, and no country should be allowed to hide what they do from this agency. Especially not China, the US, India, the EU nations, or Russia. The bigger you are... the more dangerous you are in regards to infectious diseases.
I would go further and say these labs need to be treated with more safety than nuclear labs. A nuke is actually pretty difficult to set off as it takes a lot of energy input to start the nuclear reaction. This is one reason why even though the knowledge of how to build nuclear weapons is widespread still relatively few countries have mastered it. There have been many instances of accidents with nuclear weapons but to my knowledge there's never been an accidental detonation. For nuclear power as we saw with Fukushima yes there is a big danger of radiation and the radiation can be widespread. The big difference is that radiation isn't contagious and won't mutate. A highly infectious and deadly biological agent could do far more damage than even a full on reactor meltdown.
I said this months ago. Covid impact demonstrates clearly the need for worldwide monitoring of infectious disease and a much faster and transparent system to tackle the risks and contain future outbreaks. And I think the timing is right. Business, politics, countries will all be onboard much more today than 2-3 years down the road. What's missing is leadership to bring up the topic and propose solutions. That has been the turf of American power, something that Trump gave away for the past 4 years. We'll see if the Biden admin has the talent and the right personnel to accomplish this. I haven't heard yet of anything directly from this admin, but they definitely see the reality that big things (climate change, economic, peace, democracy, human rights, infectious disease) aren't home vs abroad. Nationalistic thinking is so limited and needs to fall away. We are an interconnected world and the best way to be "American first" is to engage the world, push your agenda and your strength, not to retreat, and close off everyone. But that shouldn't be with the old method either - the Bush's preemptive attacks, the neocon dream of spreading democracy through military means. That is all so outdated, costly and back-fired. I think you see that altitude with the new SoS. We'll see...
The odds of that happening are the odds of Yao Ming actually saying anything about the Rockets ever again @Reeko @Os Trigonum
What we need is a new planet So we can start over Oh wait somebody has figured that out and is doing something about it
Safety for both needs to be improved to prevent accidents... and I can see different scenarious where both are just too deadly, but of very different type. An accident that lead to a pandemic is relatively "slow" moving and hopefully never, of a bioweapon origin. The black plagued killed up to 50% of human population, but with a common enemy (except when stupid politic get in the way), human work with each other to resolve and/or eventually immunity is established when enough is infected or immunized. An acccient that lead to full scale nuke war will kill tens of million in an "instant". The nature of the attack could end civilization almost overnight, collapshing governments and economies with prolonged military conflicts for decades if not longer. There is no natural "immunity" (except for extinction) and resolution depends on human actions (a side winning out or agreeing to peace after an unimaginable deadly conflict).
Yeah. I think the real reason why you haven't heard this is sadly because the US and Europe do not trust the Chinese, Russia, and India to be part of that group that has access to what the US is doing at the CDC. If the US supported this along with France, the UK, Australia, etc. I think it would happen, but they use the WHO and UN as a shield to defer to. The WHO does do alot of good, but they aren't a regulatory body in the way that we need. They are a research and educational entity that relies on being neutral to all parties in a way that doesn't discourage funding. That's just not the type of entity that is suited for accountability. The US, and President Biden would need to take charge here, and I doubt our security apparatus will let him do that because we likely have ALOT to hide in Atlanta from the Russians and the Chinese.
From what we've seen with COVID-19 I'm pretty pessimistic about that. That we see the PRC not being fully open about what happened at the Wuhan lab, distrust of the WHO from several sides, and that vaccines are now a geopolitical issue shows that humans aren't willing to work together for a common enemy. An accident that causing a nuclear launch leading to a MAD situation I absolutely agree but an accident at a nuclear research lab and / or powerplant isn't quite an extinction level event. That said yes both should be very secured and monitored. At the moment as far as enforcement and treaties it appears the IAEA has more teeth than WHO and the IAEA is very far from being successful stopping proliferation and monitoring of nuclear facilities.
I would say: Just shutdown this kind of the research lab, there is no a point to do this kind of thing ever.
There is a lot of reason to do this kind of research. Leaving aside whether COVID-19 was natural or artificial we never would've been able to develop the vaccines especially this fast with virology research including the kind that alters existing viruses to make them more infectious and lethal. To be able to find ways to defeat viruses we need to understand how they work. Sometimes that might mean isolating and also enhancing a particular part of viral function. Besides COVID-19 there are new viruses developing all the time as viruses constantly mutate. There are also viruses that don't know about but are latent in natural reservoirs that under the right conditions could lead to another pandemic. The only way to be ready for that and deal with new deadly viruses requires a lot of study.
