So you would rather play with the purpose of winning 35 games instead of 25? A 52% chance is a lot better than 0% while winning 7-10 more meaningless games. You are smart guy and savvy on the internet to look things up, how could you not know for sure it was 52%. It is simple, when the lottery balls are chosen, if we are in the top 4 we keep the pick, top of lower and we lose the pick and get the Heat picks. This is a draft class where 5 players have pulled away from everyone else... Cunningham and Green right now are viewed as the top two prospects with Evan Mobley and Suggs and Kuminga close behind. Any of these players potentially could make a massive difference in the direction of the Rockets. Cunningham is viewed as an all star with potential to be a Grant Hill level player. Green is the most explosive player in the draft with all the makings of an elite scorer and defender. His work ethic is excellent too. Evan Mobley is a very talented and skilled center that can handle the ball, score from inside and outside. Can pass well and is a very good defender with nimble feet. He has like a 7’6” wingspan and a 35 inch vertical. Suggs is all but guaranteed to be good. He is the best player on Gonzaga and does everything well. Sorry I will take a chance at getting one of these guys over beating the Grizzlies in April.
I care so little about this team now, I don’t even give a **** if they tank or not. Whatever option makes tilman more likely to sell the team.
Wait is it 52% for a top 4 pick, or is it 52% for every pick 1, 2, 3, 4.....which is much different. DD
The team with the worst record has a 52% chance to land one of the first 4 picks (each pick has about a 12-14% chance of hitting -- not much difference in odds). They have about a 48% chance of landing the #5 pick. Thus they have a 100% chance they'll have a top-5 pick.
What is your recommended alternative? Having 0% chance of making the playoffs and 0% chance at a pick? TANK baby. 52% chance of pick + 0% chance of playoffs > 0% chance of pick and 0% chance of playoffs The third component is of course trade value but I don't think we can do much to salvage that at this point. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball there though.
I'm convinced that for fans, tanking is the adult version of the marshmallow test. Some people just don't know how to suck it up for a while sheesh. Try to think big picture once in a while.
Just curious. Is it 52 percent if we 4th or all together? Like if they end up being 2nd or 3rd worst, is it still 52 percent?
Worst 3 records have 52.1% chance of a top 4 pick, 4th worst has 48.1% Worst 3 have a 14% chance of first overall pick, 4th worst has 12.5% chance of first pick
Playing to get swept in the first round is full of learning experiences... But somehow playing young guys and resting injury prone vets can result in nothing good if we don't get a possible franchise player? lol There's no correlation between losing in the first round and development. There's hardly a difference between finishing 8th or 15th, as long as those who are ON the court try to beat the odds every night regardless. You develop when you keep applying good habits towards winning, even if you lose the game. You can also have bad habits and win games, those won't develop anyone.