[ESPN] Carlos Correa open to long-term contract with Houston Astros, if done before season starts

We aren't using 2020 stats to represent a whole season, are we? Just like we're not using only his playoffs as his true benchmark. Nor are we using his first full MLB season when he was 21-22 years old (2016).

I think a good barometer of Correa is 2019... pre freak rib fracture. He was very good. Would he have tailed off? Or had the back issue happen? Or gotten better? Who knows.

Its still a stretch to be on either side of the extreme.

 

Obviously. If the back is still bad and permanently damaged, he's not elite.. as was much of 2018. If the back is no longer a constant issue, which by all accounts has not been a concern since off-season before 2019... then its not as pertinent to the current discussion.

 

He was 21 in 2016.

Last year is the first seemingly healthy season in which he wasn't great (and a lot of people had weird years). People are moving goalposts in their criticism of Correa now. His inability to stay healthy is a major concern (one I share), but now I've seen a few that suggest he really isn't all that great when healthy, which flat out isn't true

 

Right, but the likelihood of his back not being a problem in the future is very low. Also I am not buying that his back wasn't bothering him even last year. His performance was unusually bad for periods last year and he looked stiff at the plate. There are a couple outliers to his career and they are related to injuries to his back.

It would be one thing if it was a 1-2 year deal, but 7-10 as rumored? The chance of a chronic back issue returning for a large man, that swings hard and plays SS is pretty high.

If we magically knew that Correa would be healthy, then he would be worth close to 300 million because I have zero doubt he would put up massive numbers and over a few years his routine and cadence would align and he would have a very productive and elite run.

 

Sample size is far too small to just consider his regular season #s in a vacuum. At the very least, you should be giving at least as much credit to his 2020 postseason ABs as you do to his regular season ones. I'm more relieved that he stayed healthy, than I am worried that his regular-season production took a downturn in a year when the team played a short season in a bubble and under the media scrutiny of the cheating scandal.

 

Also I think that a lot of fans (not necessarily baseball fans) know how good Correa was defensively last year.... he was on pace for nearly 3 WAR just for defense in a full season........ he is the type of player, that if he is healthy and locked in he could flirt with 10 WAR...... which is insane.

 

All of his sample sizes are small except for 2016 because of all the time he has missed, and 60 games in the regular season is a bigger sample size than 13 in the post season.

HE COULD put up a monster season. He just never has and the Astros can't pay him superstar money on hopium.

He COULD have a monster season in 2021 and land a 300 million dollar contract. Or, he COULD get hurt again and be stuck taking the qualifying offer.

If your house was on the line which way would you bet?

 

But the back wasn't an issue to start 2019... when it was far closer to the initial injury? And his back wasn't a problem in the playoffs? Again, not going to use any of 2020's regular season performances to prove any sort of point, good or bad.

By your mindset, Correa is likely never going to be an elite player as the back will never be healed. By most medical standards, however, if there is nothing strutructurally wrong with the back... and it really was more about the type of workout/activities he was doing, those things can be improved/controlled. It certainly didn't impact his defense last year... it actually got better. He's still extremely young enough to overcome bad habits/training regimens that put his back in a worse state, but didn't change any structural integrity aspects of it... nor does he have a degenerative condition that is just getting worse year after year.

Ironically everybody has optimism that Alvarez' knees are fixed after surgery... despite him having a known degenerative/structural/anatomical issue that may never be fully healed. That scenario is actually far less likely to hold up, given the sheer size of the man, than Correa having a back injury every season.

 

I'd bet him to have a season at the plate more in line with 2019 pre-rib injury numbers, mixed with 2020 defense... vs. any other scenario... if the back is where it was to start 2019.

Granted, the Astros know his medicals better than anybody here (including the true cause of the rib fracture). They'll use that info to determine extension offers... both amounts and length.

 

Definitely a lot of goalpost moving.

At least there's not so much of the "trade him for anything" mindset that was non-stop before 2019.

 

My point was that you should consider both the 13 games in the postseason along with the 58 in the regular season. You shouldn't exclude 20% of his season's at bats, especially when it's the most important and productive part of his season.

His postseason production, in a statistically significant sample size of ABs (more ABs than he had last regular season), shows he's a big game player. He's also an elite defender and a team leader. And he's only 26, so his best years should still be ahead of him (which is not typical of free agents).

Why do I have to bet on such extreme examples? He's a very good, young player. Someone is going to give him a big contract based on his production and potential. I hope that team is the Astros. My guess is he's going to sign a multiyear deal for big money, but it's going to be much less than $300m.

 

Correa missed the start of 2019 with a neck injury.

He then reinjured the back in August after returning from the rib injury. One bad swing against Detroit and he was out.

If the 2020 season is too small of a sample size to judge his performance then you can't use the same small sample size to determine his back won't be a chronic problem. He only played 71 combined regular season and post season games in 2020 which is 4 games less than he played in the regular season in 2019 when he dealt with neck, rib, and back injuries.

I'm not saying I don't want to sign him. I'm saying it can't be anywhere near 30 million a year or a 10 year contract. I think an aav of 25 million a year for seven years with a opt out after the 2nd year makes sense for both parties. He gets long term protection, the Astros don't have to pay him 30 million, and if he balls out for 2 years he can renegotiate with the Astros for more money or hit free agency.

 

I think the die-hards, and many here know he can do that. The issue is that it is a projection, and it depends a number of things that have not yet happened coming together. And not once, but repeatedly for a few years. But you cannot pay him $23+ million until he actually proves he can get at least close to putting it together, unless it has enormous incentive bonuses based on games played, stats, awards, etc.

And I know some people will start talking about how that won't look as bad in 3-4 years, but are you sure about that? How many long-term big priced contracts for position players panned out?

 

Its also remarkable to think of just how much 1 or 2 years of being "healthy" can do for one's reputation of being "injury prone".

Anybody remember how Michael Brantley wouldn't last a full season again... till he did?

 

I actually don't think its smart for Correa to even seek out a 10 year deal... unless its got an early opt out.

He should be able to score two decent sized contracts for the remainder of his career, again presuming health is stable. A 3-5 year one to start with the Astros... and if he exceeds that, he gets another raise/deal. If he doesn't exceed it, he plays it out and his Astros tenure ends around the same time as Altuve/Bregman.

 

4-5 years is what I think Correa gets. There’s maybe five teams in baseball that aren’t rebuilding and have a need to fill at shortstop. Of those five I think Lindor, Seager and Baez are top priorities on there current clubs. And the Rockies will look to trade Story to a contender with a need now.

There’s too much writing on the wall for Correa not to return. He has a great relationship with the team, coaching staff and front office, his brother is in the minors, Astros payroll drops from 176 million too 67 million before they decide on Yuli, Pressly & Raley’s options and pay a few minor guys there first years of arbitration. They can push the payroll into the luxury tax (200 mil+) penalty free next season.

They could realistically have $100 million to spend in the offseason. Grienke and JV due to their age will be <$15 mil/yr. McCullers is gone. Plenty of capable prospects too replace roster spots, etc.

 

Astros outlook for the 2022 offseason is phenomenal with payroll dropping from 176.9 million to 67.9 million (as it currently sits). A loaded FA class at every position of need. They can easily play like the Padres and Mets with no penalty for pushing payroll into the luxury tax bracket.

What the roster will look like...

1. FA Catcher (Maldonado, C. Vasquez, d’Arnaud, S. Perez, Zunino, Avila, etc) OR Korey Lee
2. Gurriel club option OR FA 1B (Freeman, Rizzo, Belt, etc) OR Diaz OR Toro
3. Altuve
4. Bregman
5. Correa (extension) OR FA SS (Correa, Lindor, C. Seager, Baez, Story, Iglesias, Semien) OR Pena
6. Brantley
7. P. Leon OR Straw OR McCormick (pre-ARB’s)
8. Tucker (pre-ARB)
9. Alvarez (pre-ARB)
10. Castro
11. Diaz (ARB 3) OR Toro (pre-ARB)
12. Diaz OR Toro OR Pena OR Nova OR Stubbs
13. Straw OR McCormick

14. FA SP (Verlander, Grienke, Lynn, Bundy, Heaney, McCullers) OR Whitley, Abreu, Garcia, etc.
15. Same as above
16. Valdez (ARB 1)
17. Urquidy (pre-ARB)
18. Javier (pre-ARB)

19. FA Closer (Jansen, Rosenthal, Iglesias, Yates, Hand)
20. Pressly club option (very likely)
21. Paredes (pre-ARB)
22. Taylor (pre-ARB)
23. Baez
24. Stanek (ARB2)

25. & 26. Raley (club option, pre-ARB) OR FA (J. Smith, Jeffress, A. Bradley, etc.) OR pre-arb options: Abreu, Garcia, Scrubb, J. James (ARB1), etc.

 

Don’t see Correa getting more than $150 million. Lindor is a $300 million man in waiting however. I can see Seager and Baez being $75-100 million guys next season.

Dodgers are going to have a really tough offseason. How they reset the luxury tax bracket without Bauer opting out while re-signing Seager, Kershaw, Jansen, etc will be tough waters to navigate.

 

Does Correa say no to 6 years, 180 million with an opt out after 4 years?

 

I think he'd take that. I'm sure his goal is more years at a similar rate, but that puts him back on the market at 33 (or 31) with a chance for another big payday afterward. My guess is the Astros are looking for a shorter deal but who knows? Altuve's extension was 5/151 covering thru his age-34 season.