I dont think they're that bad, but Manfred put the hammer down on them by losing 1st/2nd rd picks for two years in a row plus Manfred making Crane fire Luhnow. Then when you put on top of this Luhnow traded a lot of top prospects to give his team its best chance to win championships it obviously is going to hurt the farm system. Hopefully Click can makeup some of this on the international market. What Click really needs is for Whitley/Santos to quickly reach their full potential and anchor the pitching staff for the next 5-6 years and Lee/Leon to become studs. If these things happen the Stros will be good for a long time during the transition period. I think some on here would rather have a strong farm system than have a championship level team on the MLB level.
What is left on the farm may be mostly barren, but roster has Alvarez, Tucker, Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Paredes, and Taylor for 5 more years. If 2 of Whitley, Leon, and Garcia pan out, Astros likely will be fine for the next 5 years. Granted, AL West Farms besides Seattle all suck such that the Astros may be the favorites each year for the next 5 years depending on if teams go all-in for one chance of glory or if Seattle is able to push some wins to the future.
major factors in the farm being ranked so low: -Verlander, Greinke, Pressly trades sent out most of the highest ceiling prospects. -For the last 4 years they have been drafting toward the end of each round. They have also not had a large international signing pool. -They lost their 1st and 2nd round pick last year due to cheating penalty. -What little top end talent they did have graduated (Tucker, Alvarez) or hasn’t panned out yet (Whitley). -They had a few guys graduate before getting to peak their prospect status (Javier, Urquidy, Toro). -4 2nd round picks busted so far (Matijevic, Schroeder, Perez, Dawson). There is a chance (probably <50/50) that some of their high ceiling guys (Leon, Barber, Lee, Nova, Santos, Brown, etc) could breakout to get their ranking way higher by the end of the year.
The vast majority of prospect/farm value comes from players drafted in the top 2 rounds and big bonus international signees. The Astros have 12 (TWELVE!) such prospects that were either traded, busted, or stripped: 4 first round picks (Beer, Bukauskas, Cameron, and their 2020 1st rounder) 6 second round picks (Martin, Schroeder, J Perez, Matijevic, Dawson, and their 2020 2nd rounder) 2 big bonus international signees (Celestino, F Perez) And there’s 2 more that recently graduated in Tucker and Alvarez. So the penalty that the league imposed as punishment for the biggest cheating scandal in 2 decades has been essentially applied 3 fold on Houston by trades and misses. It should surprise no one that Houston’s farm is ranked in the bottom 10 of the league. In fact it’s actually pretty impressive they’re not ranked lower.
With FanGraphs Top 100+ (Pena 66, Whitley 106, Hunter Brown 120, here's a recap of the rankings: Whitley BA 80 BP 69 MLB 40 Law 29 FanGraphs 106 Pena BA NR BP 82 MLB NR Law NR FanGraphs 66 Garcia BA NR BP NR MLB NR Law 67 FanGraphs NR Leon BA NR BP NR MLB NR Law NR FanGraphs NR Hunter Brown BA NR BP NR MLB NR Law NR FanGraphs 120
That Fangraphs list probably had some input from Goldstein so it bodes well for Pena and Brown and poorly for Whitley. I think Pena has a really good chance to be a consistent 2+ win player. Only one prospect Houston traded away made the list (Corbin Martin).
Brown's write-up was fun, I'm looking forward to seeing him in spring training : Brown is another of the several pitchers who blew up during Fall Instructional League in Florida. He was often up to 99 at the alt site and sat in the mid-90s during instructs while incorporating a consistently-plus slider and a rebooted curveball, which Brown shelved in college and has now been reintroduced in pro ball. Both breaking balls have impact potential. The reports read a little bit like those on Walker Buehler’s stuff when he first returned from Tommy John. Brown’s uptick in stuff has coincided with a change in his physicality and he’s clearly taking advantage of pro strength programs and facilities (remember, this guy comes out of a Division II school). The change in physique lends credence to the uptick in stuff, though there’s still relief risk here because we haven’t seen Brown hold it for a whole season as a starter. He has a chance to take yet another leap in 2021, especially in an org that is very good at developing pitchers.
Guys like Hunter Brown are why I like prospect rankings. While I tend to favor guys that produce at upper levels, it is nice to know who to look at when they hit AA. It seems very aggressive for him to already be viewed as a FV 50.
AAA Opening Day April 8 Sugar Land @ Reno AA and both As Opening Day scheduled for May 4 Corpus Christi vs. San Antonio Asheville vs. Brooklyn Fayetteville @ Carolina
Looking only at ceiling, here is my list of position player prospects who I think have realistic potential to be 2+ war players: Low risk: SS Jeremy Pena Moderate risk: C Korey Lee, IF Grae Kessinger, OF Pedro Leon High risk: C Nathan Perry, IF Freudis Nova, IF Dauri Lorenzo, SS Shay Whitcomb, OF Jordan Brewer, OF Zach Daniels, OF Colin Barber Extreme risk: C Juan Santander, IF Luis Santana, 3B Joe Perez, SS Narbe Cruz, SS Yohander Martinez, OF Rainier Rivas, OF Kenedy Corona
Has Perez looked bad or has injury stopped his progression. From what I've read he had great potential when he was drafted.
The missed year probably hurt him more than most prospects. He was a project when he was drafted because he was hurt and had been playing 2 ways and multiple sports in HS, so it wasn’t a major surprise/issue when he didn’t have a great year in 2019. He is the toolsy type that needs reps. But if he’s been working hard this whole time he could be primed for a breakout as it will be his first full season both healthy and playing everyday at a full season level.
He was on BA's list of the best speed/power combos in his international class after signing. It's not really clear to me if he's taken a step forward since then, or if he's been put on lists because there's not much information from 2020. I'm hoping fangraphs will have some more information on him when their Astros list drops. He probably fits the potential 2+ win player list either way.
Technically every prospect has potential to be good. My arbitrary cutoff was players I thought had >10% chance of putting up a 2+ fWAR season. I was probably being generous to some of the guys in the Extreme group.
Any guesses as to the Skeeters' starting rotation? I wish they would update their season ticket info.
Whitley, Abreu, Bielak, Martes, and Garcia are problably front of the line to be in the AAA rotation; all of those guys except Bielak have upside to be at least as good as McCullers. Ivey, Dubin, Conine, and Rodriguez are also likely in the mix. Emanuel, Hartman, and LaRue will likely be on the AAA roster and have starting experience but will probably be behind the rest of those guys in the pecking order. It’s going to be a deep staff. Houston is really really deep in minor pitching up and down the entire system.
