That's true. It didn't really translate last year in terms of a jump in performance but I wonder if his ceiling is a little higher now than many realize. Besides the command issues, the other glaring flaw that needs to get fixed is the significant change in release point between his breaking pitches and his fastball.
The getting 2 Baez's may be slightly better than 1, but getting 2 still doesn't get an elite arm. Why is Castro's superior batting average more exploitable as a batter with less power (though still good power on the occasional swing) and less contact skills that just watches pitches? Stats suggest Avila can still hit fastballs middle middle a mile, but watches everything else. Castro's contact issues will be exploitable to some degree as well as Avila, but at least he can fall back on passable defense.
Baez's out pitch is a change up, right? Pressley is a FB-Breaking ball pitcher, and Smith is an unconventional look, so Baez might add a bit of diversity to the pen to play matchups. This is pretty much my feelings. If there's a reason that they preferred Baez, then it seems like a decent plan to give him basically the standard contract for a player if his caliber. If they just panicked to grab a reliever, then yeah it's kind of dumb, but not a huge deal.
My response would all be speculation. I can think of no reason why Soria or Colome wouldn’t want to play for the Astros. The only player I have heard that supposedly didn’t want to play for the Astros was Joc Pederson. As for Click I suspect he wanted to make sure he got a quality arm and wasn’t left out in the cold. I think he misread the market after the Hendricks signing and ended up over paying for Baez. It’s also likely guys like Colome passed on the offer Baez got thinking they would get more. As it turned out the market dried up. Kevin Goldstein has spoken about this, a player had to be aware that the middle class is gone. A lot of good players slip through the cracks. Click’s handling of the Astros from a free agent and trade basis so far has struck me as clumsy. He hasn’t made any long term mistakes yet but he hasn’t done anything all that wonderful yet either. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t biased because of how a friend of mine was treated last year but Click deserves a good chance. The use of the limited funds available I believe hasn’t been optimum but it also hasn’t been horrible. Baez is a quality arm in the pen and Castro is a quality back up catcher that is a good quasi platoon pairing with Maldonado, I just think we could have done a little better.
Getting two Baez’ is more than slightly better than getting one. Agree that it doesn’t solve the Astros lack of an elite relief arm. At this point they likely will have to look internally to try and fill that spot. Avila and Castro are close to a wash for me.
Yes, Soria and Colome for the same price is better than Baez. Is it that much better though? The problem with the Baez signing was only part that it was an overpay. The biggest problem was that the money should have been used with some of the remaining funds to fill a rostar spot with a great reliever. Pinning over Soria and Colome seems really odd when Astros should have gotten Hendriks or Hand. On Avila..it is two million. That may be a better deal. Though, Castro at 3.5M still looks okay for a catcher of his ability. Don't really care much on this except it interests me how others are so invested.
I wanted Brad Hand and at the cost he was available it felt like a no brainer. Instead of Hand we went with Baez and Castro. I cannot get mad at Click over Liam Hendricks, as he clearly was out of the budget range. I would feel a lot better had we gotten Hand to close and a lesser back up catcher, compared to what we ended up with. It all just seems clumsy.
Why? Relief pitcher value is predicated on leverage. The first one's value isn't much to begin with. The second one's value is even less. Maybe if I had more faith in Colome, Baez, or Soria going forward, it would matter to me. I think Click picked Baez because he would sign when he did. Same for Castro. Click wanted to sign Brantley, but also needed to make sure he got a C and a RP signed that would allow him to fit in Brantley. Baez deal is only one that bothers me as I think it was clear some pitchers are going to be cheap.
Hendriks signed for $13.5M a year, but it is setup to help CWS financially. No Baez, and Astros are still under luxury tax with flexibility for trades.
The Astros were not willing to go to that amount long term. I like Hendricks but I will not beat Click up over that. As for Castro, I think he is a good back up catcher. I just know that his money could have been combined with Baez’ money to get someone like Hand.
I think with the previous acquisitions the upside was much more obvious. Maybe there is something they see and we don’t, but Baez will need to crush the public projections to make the k worth it.
I'm honestly fine with the bullpen, even if we hadn't added much. What I really wanted was a starter, not even a good starter, just a guy that can go out there every 5th day and not be terrible. I want to be able to be more flexible with McCullers and Javier. Maybe Pruitt can be that guy, but I still haven't heard much on his availability. Hopefully Whitley and Garcia can join the party.
Astros would need a backup catcher and should have been able to swing Hand with Castro (or Avila if he turns out to be a better value) on the books. A lot of risk in the bullpen currently and it would have been nice to have a guy to team with Pressly for the high leverage innings plus playoff innings.
I agree. Nothing to shout from the mountains about except signing Brantley, which was critical and unexpected to me. We don’t know all the factors on the Baez signing. I would think Strom has input on some of these decisions. Maybe he sees something in Baez he likes over the other two or maybe he is a better fit on how he wants to use his bullpen. Good GM’s use all the resources at their disposal to make decisions. I’m hoping Click is doing just that. No GM is perfect, even Luhow. It’s fun to talk about moves and more than fair to question them, but to all the “Click Sucks” guys out there (not you Nook) chill out and give the guy a chance.
The point about Baez’s pitch mix complementing Houstons existing RP makes a lot of sense to me. Sure, market timing maybe meant they overpaid by a couple million, but if that is the guy who they think will make the BP most effective then I’m for it. I also think there may be something to the idea that not signing an established closer makes it easier to use guys unconventionally and potentially give younger guys (like Paredes) more opportunities in high leverage.
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