Rebuild (long game) or attempt to retool/ reload?

I don’t think trading Dipo, Gordon and Tucker for young developing players plus draft assets destroys a “good” thing.

I think currently constructed we are at best 7-8, at worst 11-12, but most likely going to fall 9-11.

I think trading those 3 moves us into the area of likely finishing 11-13.

You gain assets and incrementally increase your chances of keeping the pick this year. You aren’t burning everything to the ground to go all out for the pick this year because a good portion of our current “good” thing will still be here. You aren’t breeding a culture of losing, you are just becoming younger, more flexible, more asset rich AND the bonus is you slightly increase your odds to keep your pick this year.

 

Scared money. Im not worried about it. You miss every shot you dont take.

Gut what team lol? All these vets are gone. No coveted FA is coming here now. Woods might leave in FA anyways because A. Its unlikely he develops into an all NBA player and B. Its unlikely we will pay him what he asks for and Hhe will be 28, unless we have another star here its no point to max him.

We are not Miami, We are not LA. We are not a FA destination, we are not. Miami would be nowhere if they werent in Miami. Same with LA. Rox getting Harden was great but to chase this method isnt giving you good odds.

Getting multiple picks and drafting well solves a lot of problems. Good organizations no how to manage their assets. Yes they literally are better. Atlanta is much better than we are. And they would beat us in a playoff series. NO have players all in their low twenties, they have time to grow. They also have flexibility to maneuver. NO was previously bad at managing, if you get an AD in the draft you do your best to surround him with talent, NO failed to do that. Curry made the Warriors contenders, not KD. Brooklyn is New York, Miami, LA....do you get the trend with these places? We arent these places.

Toronto got lightning in a bottle like the Harden trade(and only because the Spurs didnt want to trade with LA). Its a great move but you dont chase things like these. This is actual bad risk taking. Now Toronto is nowhere near contending right now and will take some time to be true championship contenders again. They would be seen as a huge joke if Kawhi never requests a trade to begin with.

Kawhi didnt have a choice in going there. He never wanted to be there. Okay? How does that help your argument? He went to the Lakers because of LA, we are not LA.

 

A decade ago the answer was to tank. Now, so many teams have defied that model of getting to a chip by drafting a guy in the top 5 and building around him, that such cases are the exception rather than the norm. Look at the top five contenders for the 2021 championship:

1. Lakers: Asset accumulation in a desirable city. Years of mediocrity until a top 5 player decided to commit there, followed by a total dump of most assets in order to acquire the second top 10 player with which to build a juggernaut.

2. Clippers: Same thing. They were an 8 seed before Kawhi and PG came. Even more importantly, they collected good-but-not-great stars in Tobias Harris and Aging Blake and traded them while their value was still high in order to accumulate those assets, instead of the Lakers who really did have some bottom feeder years in order to get D'Angelo Russell, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram etc as part of their build.

3. Nets: Similar. A random mediocre team accumulating random assets they got from random locations because they had zero draft capital, in a desirable city where all of a sudden two superstars decided to converge. Then a disgruntled third superstar in the era of player empowerment strong-armed his way there, which still took Brooklyn liquidating most of whatever they had left, on top of their entire draft capital the next seven years, to get him.

4. Milwaukee: They did do a build from the ground approach with a top 5 player, but they got him outside the lottery. It just shows you that savvy drafting without high picks can still get you to contention status.

5. Philadelphia: So this is the first true tank-job, multiple top 5 picks that panned out (and even more that didn't) to get to where they are. Sort of the Cleveland Browns of the NBA, and reversing their decade-plus tradition of losing was no joke. Even with the talent it was 3+ years of growing pains to now be at the point where the players have a sense of responsibility, or expectation to win. And even with all that, what are their odds of winning it all this year? 7%, says fivethirtyeight.

So one out of five tanked to get to where they are now. That's pretty awful odds. OKC has been running a clinic recently on how to asset accumulate while descending with grace as their superstars jumped ship. That's a model we can easily follow: buy low, sell high. Make the big changes in the offseason so that each team gets to continue to have a sense of pride and continuity regarding winning. Or here's an even better example, since both our franchises pulled the same trick on Brooklyn:

6. Boston: Won a chip with KG Pierce and Allen. Traded the first two old AF guys to Brooklyn for Brooklyn's future. Got the picks that became Brown (2016 3rd overall) and Tatum (2017 3rd overall, plus a 2019 first that became Langford because Ainge fleeced Philly into giving up a future first to move up two spots, because he's that good). In spite of the media's negative perception of Boston's chances, fivethirtyeight has them at 10% to win it all, ahead of Brooklyn and Philly.

The moral of the story here is that 1.) you don't have to tank to end up with top 5, top 10 players. You just need to get lucky sometimes, and you need to have good front office management no matter what. As other franchises can attest, if you get a top 10 player but have nothing to surround him with, you won't have him for long.

In the 2010's we all thought we were going nowhere drafted 14-16th every year. Now, we know it can be done. Hold onto Wall and Oladipo and trade them once somebody wants to give up a lot to get them. Maybe even do the same for Wood. It's all about getting top 5, top 10 talent. If we play our cards right, we'll be right up there yet again. We aren't LA or NY or MIA in terms of city desirability, but we're right in the next tier. This ain't some poverty franchise like the Bucks or Thunder that have to pray to draft all their talent or else no one will come.

 

Talk to me after we see what $30M in expiring contracts can get us. There’s no need to keep Dipo beyond the trade deadline, IMO. Somebody will overpay to bolster their odds for success in the playoffs.

In any event, consider me onboard with the true rebuild movement. I don’t support tanking in the traditional sense, though. No resting of your best players or purposefully playing crap lineups. You should try to win with what you have, and develop your young players, but I’m not under any illusion that this current group is a serious threat to advance in the playoffs.

Priorities for me moving forward would be:

1) Accumulate as many young assets as possible for a true rebuild (which we’re already doing)
2) Dipo/Exum - Try to get the young cornerstone piece that we didn’t get in the Harden trade
3) The Wall contract - try to repair his trade value as much as possible and deal him without surrendering draft capital
4) Move the DM era complimentary pieces - Tucker and EG are both playing well. Let these guys go somewhere where they can win. EG’s numbers are up and that contract isn’t looking so bad.

Above all else, do not surrender any draft capital to move Wall or EG. Both are playing well right now, and their stocks are slowly improving (in terms of their play relative to their contracts).

You probably can’t move Wall, but a team like Denver might start doing their homework and recognizing how much better of a two-way player somebody like EG is compared to Harris, Barton and some of the other crap on their roster.

 

I think you are getting caught up in semantics.... As you and others have pointed out, "tanking" isn't viable with the new lottery odds.... but talent is still concentrated at the top of the draft. I prefer "rebuilding" or "bottoming out" by trading away the vets because I don't think we are as good as record suggests. Conversely, with all the variability we could trade our vets and still end up with the 14th pick. My overall point is start the rebuilding process THIS trade deadline.

 

I don't see a full-on tank job coming up.

Stone has options with the draft picks and Trade Exception. Just not sure about the "O" in the WOW; pay Oladipo going forward or move him in a trade that satisfies all parties involved?

 

To the bolded, I agree and will add the Rockets shouldn't tank indefinitely.

I'd be pitching a three year plan of asset accumulation.

 

Break it down like this.....

Would you rather have Zion Williamson the number 1 pick

or

Christian Wood - a guy who is more skilled and costs way less money.

The DRAFT is not the way to build anymore.

DD

 

And yet just about all the league’s most untouchable prospects (Zion, Luka, Trae, Jaylen, Porter, Booker, Morant, etc) were all acquired via the draft.

 

.......
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He's totally in his prime having career stats.

 

Jaylen is the only good example since he was taken third. Porter was the 14th pick and none of the other teams are contenders

 

YoU mIsS eVeRy ShOt YoU dOn'T tAkE.

 

We can do a full rebuild while not sucking. We own the Nets unprotected picks. All we need is for the Nets to implode.

It is possible to build a team like the 2013-17 GSW through the draft. You don't even need to win the lottery. Just need to have good scouting and some luck.

 

Wood should be an all star this year, Oladipo and Wall were somewhat recently all stars. Tucker is an elite role player and Gordon can get you 25 on any given night.

People need to stop acting like this group is just a bunch of nobodies overachieving, there's a lot of proven great NBA level talent. Mix in a few nice finds like Nwaba and Tate, this team is legitimately really good. Not title contender good, but good.

 

Whats wrong with you man. Yall are really getting out of hand. Im not out here attacking people cause they dont want to tank or calling anyone else names. Yall have to just chill. Or put me on ignore if you hate my posts so much.

 

Don't cheer for this team to lose and expect people to not call you out.

 

I did it so that this team would actually have a shot at winning a championship. You are misconstruing me wanting to tank for me wanting bad things to happen to the Rockets. So, I'll say it agin, if you are just going to insult someone in a rabid manner or if my posts make you mad, put me on ignore.

 

Nope, I'm not going to put you on ignore. I'm going to blast you every time the Rockets win. I'm tired of your ilk.

 

That’s not at all the point I was making. DD was alluding to a non-draft centric approach to rebuilding.

I was merely making the point that all of the above, including others I neglected to mention (Tatum, Fox, etc), were all lottery draft picks drafted by their original teams (I’m aware of the Trae/Luka swap but same point), and they’re among the best young cornerstone players in the league. Just about all of them are untouchable. There’s something to be said for that.