[Official] Astros Off Season

That's Will Harris money ... ok it is 2 million more than Harris money but still

 

I am also underwhelmed by Click's moves this offseason. Losing so many players via waiver claims tells me he's not working his phones enough. The return for CIonel Perez looks weak. He appears to have slightly overpaid for Pedro Baez. I am fine with brining back Brantley, but he paid market value. I do like the Castro deal.

But there's still time. There are still 35 players who project for 1+ fwar available in free agency. And Click could make a season-altering trade at any minute. My faith in him isn't where it was when he was hired, but I am still optimistic.

I put zero stock in that McCullers Phillies rumor but I have no issues trading him if a team is willing to overpay. From Philly I would like something like Bryson Stott and Mickey Moniak.

 

Ultimately the most important job for any GM is talent evaluation.

With the farm being almost completely on ice, the only evidence we have for Click is MLB comings and goings while under financial constraint. Often times the moves you don't make end up being the smartest, but nobody is gonna ever praise you for a wise offseason of not doing much.

We'll see, I never expected to bring in much given finances and thin farm. Would have preferred something more solid pitching wise, otherwise bringing back Brantley or Springer (or another proven OF bat) was the only crucial move we needed. Thought we overpaid Baez and Castro, but that isn't gonna mean much in the grand scheme. If this team is good it will be because the in house guys deliver, and that really wouldn't have changed much with a "good" offseason.

 

Crane has without question tightened the belt.

 

With the signing of Brantley, we are unquestionably still a contender. There are more ifs, but we are running out one of the best lineups in baseball. Our rotation and bullpen are average at worst, but probably above average. I believe Greinke, Framber, Urquidy, McCullers, Javier could be an elite rotation if health holds up.

 

Tightening the belt doesn’t preclude us from being contenders. It’s just a fact of a post Covid season and a likely Covid impacted one in 2021. Fortunately we already have the pieces to be a really good team without spending another dime.

 

I don't feel like the soft market that was supposed to happen has really been there. The good players are still getting paid. Schwarber and Hand both beat what they would have made had their previous teams held on to them. Springer got more than I thought he would. Drew Smyly set the starter market with 11 million.

I think people just don't like Baez and Castro. They aren't my favorites either, but I don't feel like these are massive overpays. Hendriks really set the market for relievers and got way more than the estimates out there. Brantley seemed to be out the door to the Blue Jays so who knows what really went on in that situation.

Correa also probably shocked the Astros with his arbitration numbers. He is way above every projection I had seen.

Really, they only have 2 spots open on the roster. A CFer and one pitcher. Also, that is not including Pruitt and James that will start the year on the DL. Pruitt is out of options. I haven't seen any deals that make me think wow that team got great value. Maybe that comes as we get to spring training and guys get desperate.

 

My minimum expectation was 4 moves: a bat, a CF, a backup C, and an impact P. Beyond that I would have been thrilled with an upside P and some how adding to the farm.

The backup C was low hanging fruit as there were a lot of good options and none of them projected to be very expensive.
Brantley as the "bat" was a fine move, even if it ate up the majority of the available money.
Stanek as an upside P was a fine move.
Baez does not represent an impact P for me. There are several other FA RP that have signed to deals I think represented a better value.

I don't think anyone can grade the offseason a success with Myles Straw as the starting CF, Cristian Javier guaranteed a rotation spot, and Ryan Pressly as the undisputed best reliever on the team.

Like I said there's still a ton of time left in the offseason. The main impact move(s) I expected Click to make (trading pitching prospects for an OF and/or a SP) can still happen.

 

Given how desperate the Astros were for pitching last year, one has to wonder why Perez did not even get a sniff. Perhaps, the Nerd Cave and coaching staff do not see a MLB pitcher.

 

Agree with this. I don't like the "sit back and relax" method of GM'ing but I do understand where Click is coming from especially if money is tight which we all assume it is. You get a hopefully healthy Yordan Alvarez back, you resign Brantley who has really been our most consistent performer these past 2 seasons which is crazy to say. Losing Springer will hurt but keep in mind there should hopefully be even more improvement from Kyle Tucker and NO MORE JOSH REDDICK! Don't forget Reddick starting 54 games last season due to Tucker and Brantley playing mostly DH. Now Tucker will take those starts for Reddick who is really just an average or below average player at this point. Losing Springer hurts but getting Alvarez back and Tucker playing instead of Reddick can help lessen the blow.

I would like to still get some OF depth (centerfield to compete for starting spot) which should be attainable for cheap as the offseason progresses. As for the rest of the lineup, Bregman, Correa, Altuve and Yuli (the whole infield) had down years whether due to lack of Spring Training/Covid/Inuries/etc. Hopefully they can put last season behind them and get back to mashing the ball like we all know they can. If I remember correctly they were all banged up at one point or another throughout the season and just seemed off, especially Altuve. I think they put too much pressure on themselves to produce due to all of the scrutiny they received for the cheating scandal. I am sure some teams will have fans back so maybe we need to realize that fans are going to be against us no matter what and just play the bad guy role like Correa did all season. Several of these guys, besides Correa, did not show up in the playoffs either and we were still 1 win away from another World Series appearance. You have to assume at least 2 of these guys will bounce back and 4 of them bouncing back is definitely in the realm of possibility.

Another topic is the young arms in the starting rotation and bullpen. These guys showed huge cajones especially in the offseason but also pure talent. They had a lot of inconsistency during the season due to the same reasons our lineup struggled during the regular season, lack of Spring/Covid/Injuries, etc. Keep in mind some were out due to Covid like Urquidy. These young guys seem legit and will hopefully build on what they did last year with a proper spring training and continued coaching under Strom. We will also have a Veteran catcher with good defense and occasional pop in Maldy and Castro behind the plate no matter who is pitching. You also hopefully have a healthy, crafty Greinke and a healthier McCullers in his 2nd year returning from injury where he has hopefully built his arm strength backup. They are both battle tested and have proved what they are capable of when healthy.

I included a lot of Hopefully's in there but they are all within the realm of possibility considering how talented these guys have shown to me over a pretty long stretch. Last regular season was rough with all of the injuries, expectations, etc . You could tell the team was pressing, especially the stars, trying to prove something. Springer was definitely more intense probably due to a contract year and trying to prove haters wrong. Altuve and Bregman were obviously affected as Bregman's swagger completely fell off a cliff. I don't think Correa will allow this team to play as tight as they did. They need that swagger back and to just own the bad guy image although not sure Altuve has the mental makeup to handle that aspect.

I assume Click will find some OF depth on the cheap as well as more pitching depth on the cheap (minor league deals, etc.) and will look to see what he has the first 2 months of the season and then potentially pull a trade for a closer if guys like Paredes, etc. falter. Don't forget guys like Pedro Leon or other minor league players could step up in spring training while others from previous seasons may falter. I understand how fickle baseball can be but last year was not the norm for a lot of these guys while some of the pitchers may have out produced their potential, I actually feel like the best is yet to come from these young guys considering the mental fortitude they showed in the playoffs. Not having fans may have helped them stay calm and focused but looks like we really found some gems in Paredes/Urquidy/Valdez/Javier that could help carry us for years to come.

Sorry for the long post but we also don't know what may come of the prospects since they did have a minor league season. Some of these guys may have taken a step towards the major leagues last year even though there weren't official games. I am obviously rosier than most on here but I understand what Click is doing considering we were a win away from the World Series this past season even with all of the injuries and question marks. As long as the players produce like we all know they are capable of, I can easily see us as one of the top 4 teams remaining later this year and Click's moves before the trade deadline could catapult us in the World Series again. I do hope he is ready to pull the trigger if an opportunity presents itself as all of us fear being the 2nd coming of the Tampa Bay Rays not carrying home the trophy at the end of the season.

 

Strongly disagree. Astros have about a top 5 payroll.

 

Astros budget is fine unless you want to be mad about Crane having Bregman, Altuve, and Greinke under contract or blame him for Verlander getting Tommy John. Click had enough wiggle room in budget to fill holes. I like Brantley and Leon acquisitions. I gripe about the Baez acquisition, but I understand magnitude of the Baez deal likely is almost insignificant in comparison to Leon and Brantley signings. I'm not a big fan of Castro, but think deal appears fair. Even if I thought Castro was a worthless POS, I would understand his deal is likely insignificant in comparison to Leon and Brantley signings.

 

Not this again.

 

I don't disagree. I still want Pillar and Rodon or Jeffress, but I had minimal expectations for this offseason.

I don't see a lot of free agent relievers having signed this great value deal you are talking about. Archie Bradley at 6 million for 1 year is alright I guess. He also was very vocal about the Astros cheating so I doubt he had any interest pitching here unless you overpaid him. Hand for 10.5 isn't value to me with his low 90s fastball and awful playoff numbers. Trevor May for 7.75 per year... ehh, his career numbers are somewhat similar to Baez but he is younger. Baez has slightly better career numbers but May had a better FIP last year. Never even heard of him as being remotely tied to the Astros so don't know if he was really an option. I would have liked Kirby Yates but he is 34, coming off surgery, and if he gets into 30 games he makes 8.5 million, and if he gets into 70 games he makes 10 million. Doesn't seem like unbelieveable value to me. I guess Greg Holland for 2.75 million is value, but again almost 36 years old and are you getting the guy that was really good in a 60 game season or a bad reliever in 2019?

I would have like Urena for 3.25 million as a flyer for the rotation, but after seeing how the market developed and the cost for Brantley and possibly Correa's arbitration I am not surprised the Astros didn't gamble 3 million on Urena.

Rosenthal is a Boras guy so never had any notions that he will land here. I also never bought the Hendriks to the Astros hype considering the payroll concerns. I don't love the offseason, but had minimal expectations considering getting below the luxury tax made sense and having to spend on at least one quality outfield bat.

Perez stinks. In his 20 appearances in MLB he has 5.74 ERA, 1.463 WHIP, and a 5.77 FIP. Every other team knew the Astros had to dump someone for the 40 man roster. You aren't getting great value in that situation. Also, still unclear if he was out of options as Cots says or if he had 1 more year like Spotrac says. He wasn't making the opening day roster. I know you love these value plays but a guy like Perez has little value with no options and crap performance in the bigs.

I also don't expect any sort of big trade. Our value in the farm system is our pitching. We need all of our upper level starters considering the inexperience and lack of guys in the rotation that are know workhorses outside of Greinke. You can't pencil in Urquidy, McCullers, Framber, or Javier for more than 20 starts a piece and that is probably optimistic.

I wouldn't be surprised if they bring in a couple starters on minor leauge deals to compete in spring training, but they might be on hold until they see if they have that extra 3 million to spend or not after Correa's arbitration.

I said it before, this team might win 95 games, or the young pitching might blow up and we are sellers at the deadline.

 

People hating on Click are really underestimating how big the Brantley signing was

 

You put the Casto/Baez deals together and you could've found a starting CF.

Ask yourself, would Straw be the staring CF if Luhnow were running the club. Furthermore, what happens if one of the OF'ers get hurt say like for two or three weeks like Brantley did last year?

 

They still have a top 5ish payroll.

Click had money to spend to get a quality CF.

Click just chose to spend that money on meh players like Castro/Baez.

What happens when a couple of OF'ers get hurt this year?

 

Would Ramon Laureano be in our starting outfield if Click had the job 3 years ago?

Luhnow chose to play it safe and go with proven guys. Click is (partly out of necessity) giving young guys a chance. If Myles Straw performs like he did in 2019 for a full season he will be better than any of the free agent options, and cheaper. I don't know if it will work out, but what I do know is that our franchise can't live on free agents long term.

 

What does that have to do with tightening the belt? Our payroll is already high. I didn’t say Crane is cheap or not spending. But this isn’t 2019.

 

Springer was a home-grown talent that Click did not re-sign. I don't know that replacing our outgoing star CF with a (cheaper) free agent would qualify as "living on free agents long term".

Straw is not good. He was a 12th round pick, has never been considered a top prospect, and is now 26. He's organizational depth. I agree that you should give prospects a chance to succeed... I just don't think Straw's a true prospect or a "young guy" who needs the chance. We know who he is. He's a speedy baserunner with very, very little power. And his one tool (speed) is one that tends to diminish with age. He's definitely cheaper than the free agent options like JBJ, but there's no chance he's more productive.