Prove to me that defensive metrics unequivocally name the best defensive players at the same accuracy that offensive metrics hallmark the best offensive players. There are literally defensive metrics that say Mike Trout is below average. Hell, the metrics LOVE Kyle Tucker as an OF, even though he’s had his fair share of adventures back there. I’m as analytical as anybody... but all the sabersticians admit that defensive advanced stats are not the end-all/be-all as much as the offensive side.
And after all that... if he finished in the top 5 for MVP voting, you and everybody would merely say “well, this is what we always expected!”
In the end, any team that commits to Correa would believe that he has better years ahead. That he hasn’t necessarily peaked. those are not big stretches or blasphemous assumptions.
If the Astros feel like they will continue to compete for a ring after this year then I can see them re-signing Correa. If they are looking at the fact that their top pitchers will soon be off the books then they may go for a mini-rebuild. And all of that may have something to do with how Altuve attacks this year. He gets on track and our starting pitching gets a boost then I can easily see Correa re-signing. I just don't think the Astros will want to do anything more than 3 years to match the end of Altuve's contract.
Framber repeating his stint last year and turning into a true ace does automatically extend/open up the window once again. At that point, Crane may consider all possibilities. Extend Correa. Let Verlander play on one year deals. Supply Whitely with a lifetime supply of adderall...
LOL, could be. I dare to say that JVs best days are behind him but if he can still be a solid 3 or even 4 at this point then hopefully we could have him for another few more years.
LOL So that would be a no then!! All the saberstaticians? Really? Thanks for the laughs, but that statement is horse manure. Seems to me that you are stuck in the past about 6 years, and have not come into the present when it comes to defensive metrics. And to your point about shifts, DRS now accounts for them, and Correa is still not elite defensively. The metrics speak for themselves, your refusing to believe them doesn't change that simple little fact. The metrics are supported by the best data available, while your statements are supported by nothing. What the metrics say about Mike Trout is that his defense is in decline, and has been for a couple of years. Last year his jumps on balls was horrid (a rating of 1 from statcast), leading to below average metrics. It is not just one, all of the sites say the same thing about his defense. And yet you seem to think that he is still the plus defender he was 4 years ago. What they say about Tucker is that he gets better than average jumps on balls and has plus sprint speed, therefore he provides positive outs above average. None of the metrics say that he is a plus defender, much less "LOVE him". Neither do they say he is void of "adventures". While no stat is the end all/be all, that doesn't mean they do not provide an accurate picture compared to others. Defensive metrics may have some flaws, but they are miles and miles better than your "eye test". You are more than welcome to your opinion, but trying to pass them off as fact is nothing more than stupidity in my opinion. However, it is clear that you are going to believe what you want to believe regardless of the "data", so I see no need to continue this discussion. Good luck to you.
The most stringent of analytical disciples have pointed out the major flaws with defensive metrics. Correa has literally influenced the opposing team’s ability to take extra bases with his elite arm/cut-off abilities. There is no metric for this. There is also no metric for double plays turned that would otherwise not have if not for his cannon. This is the bare minimum of “analysis” but again pointing out that if the object of the game is to get outs and prevent runs, those are two particular aspects that give the Astros an advantage when Correa is on the field vs. when he’s not. All stats aside... what do you feel Correa is “bad” at defensively? Remember, range on this team is literally a non-factor given that they shift on more than 75% of all defensive alignments. But alas... you’ve left the building.... and would gladly put Tucker in CF over Trout... good for you.
This is my opinion on how it will play out. After the arbitration hearing the Astros will approach Correa's agent on getting an extension done. If Correa does not agree to a somewhat team friendly extension the Astros will treat him exactly like Springer. He will play his last year out, receive a qualifying offer which he will reject, and the Astros will show minimal interest in getting into a bidding war for Correa's services next offseason. If his market craters back to the the level they offered in spring training they would then get back into the negotiatons. If Correa wants 300 million it is a non-starter. He has never performed like a 300 million dollar player for a full season and paying that kind of money for what he might do but never has is insane. Show me any player that has signed for 300 million that has a best MVP finish of 17th place or worse. That player doesn't exist. If I was the Astros, my offer would be around 8 years 192 million. That's it. If Correa doesn't want to take that money and risk another year of injury and/or bad performance in his walk year...best of luck to you. If he misses 70 games again he will regret not taking the money when teams offer him a 1 year deal or he has to take the qualifying offer from Houston.
Exactly There have only been 4 such players in history Trout - 3 MVPs, 6 other top5 finishes, greatest player of this generation Harper - 1 MVP Machado - 4 times top10 MVP finishes Cole - 4 times top5 CY finishes Lindor looks like he will be the fifth He's finished top5 for MVP 3 times already
As much as I tried, there is just so much stupid that I cannot let it pass. The Astros shifted 44.1% of the time in 2020, 49.5% in 2019, 37.3 in 2018, 34.3 in 2017, and 33.9% in 2016. I hate to tell you this, but none of those numbers are more than 75%. If you researched instead of just spouting your typical BS you might know the actual rates. Also, all those things that you say "there is no metric" for, are incorporated in both DRS and OAA.
... and Tucker being ahead of Trout? Why stop now? It’s cute that DRS didn’t even exist (in its current form) before 2020... and you’re clamoring for it as if its the new OPS. Defensive metrics are still a major work in progress, as evidenced by the current “leaderboard” and the need to revamp the criteria.
Can you really this stupid? You do realize that DRS has existed for quite a while, right? It has been updated many times, and, yes, it's most recent update was in 2020. The better the input, the better the output. Contrary to the malarky that you are espousing, it is a VERY GOOD metric, and getting better all the time. Ever single aspect of every single play is entered as data. While there is some subjective analysis that could be improved, it is infinitely better than you claiming your eye test is more determinate. The fact that you made an asinine comment about the current "leaderboard" shows exactly how little you comprehend defensive metrics. There is no current leaderboard. There are multiple organizations, and each has their own way of determining defensive values. If all of these very smart people, collected all of this data, and analyzed everything they collected, and all came to the same result that Tucker had a better year defensively than Trout, then guess what - he did, plain and simple. Any semi-intelligent person could understand this uncomplicated philosophy. But then there is you, so keep digging that hole.
Its clear you have a passionate relationship with defensive metrics... and again, its been flawed for some time hence the need for constant adjusting. Maybe they figured it all out with the 2020 adjustment... maybe it will take another few tweaks after gathering more data. Yes, every single play is entered. And the data is then analyzed retrospectively for errors. The leaderboard was more referring to OAA and it currently having Tucker as one of the top 20 overall defenders. The main problem I have with all defensive metrics is that they'll do the calculations... then realize there is some questionable results and then tweak/alter the data-sets in subsequent years to try and get the data to match what's actually being valued by teams. Teams have been questioning the overall translation ability for years. Yes, its better than fielding percentage... but there's still a lot of work to be done for it to be taken as seriously as the offensive metrics. It’s not really able to be perceptible in real-time.., and as you said, there are competing organizations in the realm of calculating defensive values. But stick with the name-calling and willingness to bet it all on defensive metrics. Hell, even dWAR is the literal basic of basics (one that Correa actually was amongst the leaders of last year) and itself is inherently flawed (yet does compile a pretty venerable who's who on the all-time leaderboard).
Assume a LHH hitter is up and Correa is 1/2 step to the 3rd base side of the 2nd base bag standing near the OF grass. Is that a shift?
Paying Correa 200 million probably is not a good idea. He gets hurt a lot and he hasn't put together a full mvp caliber season. The Astros should aim to be like TB. Spend to bring in guys to put the team over the top. Look at the yankees they spend 300 mil on a player and didn't even get as far as the astros.
Pay him what he wants. He put us in the post season the first year he came up and we've never looked back.
Carlos is an elite defensive shorstop who hits for power with a career .869 postseason OPS and 17 postseason homers. Even with his resume of injuries in the past, players like that don't grow on trees. Pay the man. You already lost Springer. What's the point of drafting great players, if you don't keep them?
