Someone explain to me our "draft situation" this year

Or if the worst pick of OKC-HOU-MIA has a better record than BKN (ie worse pick than BKN)

So,
Rockets get the two best picks of

• OKC-HOU-MIA pick that OKC swaps with us (HOU Top 4 Protected)
• POR (lottery protected)
• BKN

 

The reason for the pushback is that the odds of keeping the pick are less than 50-50. The team with the worst record has a 52% chance of a top 4 pick , those chances get worse as the record gets better.

Currently the Rockets are the 5th worst so their odds of being in the top 4 are far shorter than that 52% the worst record has.

I'd really hate to send OKC a top 5 pick .... ugh.

 

Regardless of where we land, I see us aggressively pursuing Mobley with a trade up if necessary.

 

It really isn’t that different through the first 6-7 picks.... right now the Rockets would have a 45% chance of keeping their pick.

 

The point is with the worst record in the league you have a 52% chance at a top 4 .... That sucks.

None of us expect the rockets to actually finish worst .... so their chances will be lower than that 52%.

They are currently 5th (from the bottom) , that means they could land anywhere between 1-9 and 5-9 would go to OKC.

It would suck ass to send them a pick between 5-9 but the odds favor that outcome.

We aren't Cleveland having Stern rig the pingpong balls ... & Adam Silver hates Houston.

 

I will take a 40-50% chance over zero.

It may not even matter with some much parity right now.

 

So do we probably get two first round picks next year or not?

 

I'm more confused now than before reading the thread. It helped with the Vegas odds so.. explain this to me like I'm Cal Mcnair.

 

I'm assuming thats a good way to get blacklisted from future trades. Lots of gms are willing to screw others but it has to be for substantial rewards not a piddling 2nd round pick you can buy for cash.

 

Rox have 3 picks for 2021, their own, Detroit (top 16 protected till 2027) and Portland (top 14 protected till 2027). You gotta feel for Detroit giving us a pick and Wood for Ariza and 16th and Portland giving us 2 picks for RoCo. STONE DA GAWD.

OKC has the right to swap our pick with either Miami or their own, except if we get top 4 pick. That means if OKC doesnt make the playoffs, Miami doesnt make the playoffs and we miss the playoffs we get a lotto pick. Otherwise we are getting a low first rounder.

Rox also own the right to swap any picks with Brooklyn. That means in the unlikely scenario Brooklyn misses the playoffs we can give them the garbage pick we get from OKC and get a lotto pick in return.

 

So very unlikely more than one FRB this next draft?

 

Agreed. The parity is crazy right now. Shortened season too — the Heat have the 3rd worst point differential in the East right now, and the same record as the Rockets. Herro has neck issues, to boot. It wouldn’t be totally crazy for the Heat to end up in the lotto, or just sneaking into the playoffs — that would at least alleviate some of the pain of a pick swap.

I just went to check - the Heat have NO protections on their pick swap with OKC.

 

Likely to have 2. The Portland pick is only lottery protected so Rox have a good chance of getting that one

 

Thanks for clarifying. Now if we can just extend our recently near miraculous ability to evaluate non drafted players to the later first round we can really roll.

 

So I assume that the order of swapping is according to the order of the trades, right? That's why we can swap the OKC swapped pick but they can't swap our Nets swapped pick.

I bet Morey will invent trading 3rd round picks in the future, with the slim probability of the NBA resuming later round drafts.

 

Men of God will sort it out and the Rockets will battlefight with whatever pick they get.

 

The most we can hope for is another Porter Jr. type of player(s) in the late 1st. I'm okay with that.

 

I honestly dont even care I wanna see what we have first with Jones and Porter Jr. Jones in particular has seen limited time but has been bombing at 58% 3 pt and 70% TS lol.

 

I would like for them to at least try to get another big man or two.

 

Well hopefully they get before the draft. I still have 100 usd riding on the Rox getting a playoff spot lol.