Claiming what Wood has done is a bad thing is an argument you can search this site up and down for and not find that I ever made. I even replied to him that Wood has been really good. Worth his current contract and more. Shown tons of promise, just that he’s not at that elite, elite level yet. My argument is that simply slopping downs some per game stats and saying these numbers are proof he’s a top 5 center is flawed. I used an obvious example of a high scorer who is no good at scoring to show why this can be a flawed.
Okay so what is your infallible method to determine his value? Your eye and your eye only? At least HTown laid down something. Regardless of method of rating, he's a highly rated center in the NBA with coveted skills that he has displayed on the court. We all know he hasn't had a huge body of work, but his per 36 minute stats show a guy that contributes... well. What's wrong with believing what he has shown, is sustainable.. thus launching him up the scale of actual NBA Centers.
Again. Things I never claimed. To have an Infallible method. That he doesn’t rate highly at SOME things. That what he has shown isn’t sustainable. That he isn’t climbing up the ranks of NBA centers. Things I did claim. He is NOT YET a top 5 guy. And that using points, rebounds and blocks as your key pieces of evidence that a player is top 5 is extremely flawed. Some things I have looked at other than just watching him play and his traditional numbers. Numbers among NBA Centers *Disclaimer* I don’t believe that because someone is ranked ahead of Wood in some of these numbers that it means that it is 100% fact that they are better than him. TS% : 19th Win shares/48 : 17th Box +/- : 9th VORP : 19th Rebound % : 13th 538’s RAPTOR rating : 14th WAR : 17th
True shooting percentage is great, but Christian is a volume shooting center. Somebody who just finishes lobs and gets put backs is not going to compare to Wood. Not at all. Win shares is great too, however we're not some stable franchise right now. Our best players aren't playing together, haven't all year and having good players playing alongside you does matter for WS/48. Box +/- is pretty good too, but again.. better teammates gives you better numbers. Rebound percentage.. looks pretty good to me. WAR/RAPTOR/VORP are pretty out there. They're all so seemingly flexible that it feels like you can have a player randomly hit high scores and leap way up there. You see it all on these complex ratings. None of them tell you the exact equation for how they've figured out the score. Show me the math. Where is the equation? Most of these things have paragraphs dabbling in what the scores might mean, but none of them give you the equation like it's some secret. If you can't tell me the equation for how they came up with the numbers, then you're having blind faith that the stats are meaningful. I mean, I'm looking at the list now and they have Poeltl rated significantly higher than Wood and you trust that? The Spurs would trade Poeltl for Wood in a heartbeat. I just can't trust something that blind. (and yes I've read their nonsensical explanation online)
For all those stats, are they normalized for starting centers with atleast 20 mpg? How does he rank among Starters with significant playing time? TS% - How does it look normalized for players with atleast 15 fga per game? Can you link to the data source if possible?
I edited my post to include a disclaimer about the stats : *Disclaimer* I don’t believe that because someone is ranked ahead of Wood in some of these numbers that it means that it is 100% fact that they are better than him. Every single critique of the array of numbers I gave you I would absolutely agree with to varying degrees. And as I explained to the guy I originally responded to when it comes to these numbers is that : None of them are gospel. Outliers that don’t align with what we all know to be the reality of a player are possible. Knowing the formula isn’t essential when you can see years and years of results that these formulas come up with and compare them to what the general perception of the reality is of the players. They are remarkably good at what they set out to do. Look at the top 20 of 538s numbers and you will generally find most if not all the players that wind up being selected to All NBA teams. When you are a high impact player these numbers almost always find a way of recognizing it. Again, not flawlessly. I never expect anyone to use ONE SINGLE metric to judge a player. But a combo of watching games, box score numbers and looking at an array of other metrics I don’t think it’s outrageous to have the belief that a player who just now signed his first real NBA deal, 10 or so games into the season, is NOT YET qualified to be named a top 5 NBA center. And I think it is outrageous to use points per game, rebounds per game and blocks per game to claim that he IS a top 5 player.
So, Harold- you scared yet? If you want you can just say I was right and you were wrong and I will let you out of the bet. We won’t be 500 this year- we are projected to suck the next 2 years, and it’s likely at sometime that they trade him. I look back through the first 5 pages of this thread and laugh my ass off at how right I was about what was going to happen and how delusional all you people calling me a moron were. Not that you called me a moron.
Yeah I mean this year it's not happening but when I made the bet I wasn't making it because I thought the rockets were going to be killers this year. It just seemed like too much value because I expect Wood to be here for many years. I don't want out of the bet.
Fair enough. I can’t see him being here to even finish out his contract two years from now- let alone re-signing. If he resigns a 4 or 5 year near max contract at 27 YO I’m going to lose. Let’s just say I have that outcome at way less than 50/50 odds. This post wasn’t a **** talking to you- just saw it and wanted to make sure the bet was still good. I was **** talking to all the others who called me a moron. Like I said on the day Harden was traded- this is a total tank job that’s going to last at least 2 more years, and I’d be shocked if Wood wants to see it through with an extension. If he doesn’t- a trade when you think his value is maximized is the only thing that makes sense.
Do I win my $500 from Harold Bingo at this years trade deadline? I remember being called a moron by a lot of people around here last year when I started my post on when a good time to trade Wood would be. I think that ideal time was looking like last summer maybe? got to feature him for the next couple months and move him at the deadline.
So I just reread the entire first page cackling the entire time. Lets just say that anyone other than me that posted on that first page took a big fat steaming L.
