[Official] Astros Off Season

There's definitely a big range for how much money Houston has left to spend. I think it's pretty safe to say they won't go over the luxury tax threshold, so the range would be between $170M and $210M, including Verlander's salary. Including Verlander and assuming they lose their arbitration case against Correa, they are at $162.6M. So they could have anywhere from ~$10M to $50M left to spend. Assuming they are out of the running for Springer, the upper range of that estimate would likely allow them to fill all their holes from the 2nd tier for FA (e.g., for $40M they could probably sign Ozuna or Brantley for LF, Bradley or Profar for CF, any of the non-Realmuto catchers, and a closer like Hand or Yates). Of course, the lower end of that estimate would mean they don't have much left to spend at all, in which case we'd be looking at something like a trade for a guy like Benintendi plus signing a backup C and a 3rd or 4th tier CF, with no more meaningful pitching additions.

So best case would be something like Ozuna, Bradley, Castro, Hand, and a SP like Archer.
Worst case would be something like Benintendi, Pillar, Castro, and a couple NRI pitchers like Zack Godley and Nate Jones.

 

For luxury tax purposes, Astros probably are about ~175-182M if the Astros lose the arbitration case. Considering Click keeps talking about adding a closer, it will be tough for the Astros to end up less than $200M and add 2 OFs and a closer.

 

Reading the Mets board. Seems the Mets fans are more in on going all in for Hand and extending Conforto and going for JBJ.
I know they aren't the front office. Maybe Springer winds back up in Houston???

 

Fangraphs has the payroll estimate at 180.3 but that is with Correa getting 9.1 million. So it is either 181 or 184 depending on the Correa hearing.

I would guess the Astros would want to leave at least 4 million from the 210 to have room to make some moves at the deadline. So they would have about 25 million to spend if the Astros win the hearing, and 22 million to spend if Correa wins.

In my opinion, signing Brantley or Springer seems unlikely considering we need 2 outfielders and a backup catcher at a minimum. I would still like another starting pitcher as well.

Man, if Crane wanted to go for it with all the guys available right now he could put together one heck of a team if he went to 220-225 million on the payroll. If they are winning you go for it. If the team is struggling he could easily move enough guys to get under the tax at the deadline. They have at least 83 million coming off the books next year and could be about 100 million if Pressly doesn't vest his option and if they don't pick up Gurriel's option.

 

My prediction and I hope I'm wrong is we wait too long, springer and brantley sign elsewhere, and we end up with a poo poo platter of leftovers.

 

Cots has it slightly less assuming 11M. I was trying to include a range of both, but messed up the high end.

 

Yea.. so taking all the sites into account and the spread on Correa's arbitration hearing it is somewhere between 176 and 184 million.

 

Spend ~$20M on OFs, and use rest on backup catcher would seem prudent. If Astros get a closer, it seems likely an internal option is starting in OF with Tucker and a FA.

 

Pedro Leon. With his signing and being “a rapid advancer to the big leagues”. I wouldn’t be surprised if we take a 1yr deal on a CF. Keep that window open.

 

Sign Brantley for 3 years 36 million. You lower the AAV by giving him the 3rd year similar to what the Yankees did with LeMahieu.

Sign Kevin Pillar for 1 year 5 million. Leon takes over CF in 2022.

Sign Alex Avila for 1 year 3 million.

Sign Jeremy Jefress for 2 years 8 million. He was very good last year and has some closer experience including last year he saved 8 games.

Lineup:
Altuve 2B
Brantley LF
Bregman 3B
Alvarez DH
Correa SS
Tucker RF
Yuli 1B
Maldonado C
Pillar CF

Bench: Avila, Straw, Diaz, Toro

Rotation:
Greinke
Valdez
McCullers
Urquidy
Javier

Bullpen:
Pressly
Paredes
Baez
Jeffress
Smith
Taylor
Raley
Stanek

 

I wish Click doesn't try to be cute by continually making moves that only work by selecting players he thinks will outperform normal projections.

 

Next season could see a spending spree by Houston, although I assume Click will try to use that money for extending young guys. Verlander, Greinke, and Correa all come off the books. Houston has <$50M committed for 2022, and <$70M for CBT purposes. Framber is their only meaningful arbitration eligible player, but it'll be his 1st year. Even if they pick up options on Yuli and Pressly they will still be under $85M.

Their ability to move Bregman to SS will let them shop for either 3B (Bryant, maybe Arenado) or SS (Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager, Story). It would be hard to overestimate how well off the roster will look if both Leon and Whitley prove to be ready to be core pieces for 2022.

Next offseason will be make or break for Click.

 

If the Astros were smart, they would try to make some of those investments this year when they can potentially secure the same level of talent at lower long-term prices due to Covid. Spending when every other team is also feeling much better about their finances a year removed from Covid is not a good time to get bargain prices.

 

To me Framber is the only prime extension candidate for this offseason. He is coming off a breakout year and he was not a big bonus signee as an amateur so he is probably not financially secure. Javier and Urquidy are other potential targets. But the other 2 young core pieces (Tucker and Alvarez) received big bonuses as amateurs and are likely able to (wisely) wait things out and get to free agency asap. None of the other young guys (Straw, Toro, Paredes, Taylor, etc.) seem worthy of an extension at this point. One way out of the box extension candidate would be Whitley. But Houston is in a tight spot this offseason because they pretty much cannot exceed the luxury cap, and they really really need to spend money on their outfield, so extensions might make that difficult.

 

Tilman buy the Astros? @Nook

 

Good article: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/1/18/22234851/the-culmination-of-the-astros-meticulous-offseason