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Top 4 pick or Bust!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Trackwell, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    I am certainly aware of that too. I think every Rockets fan was looking for a Kawhi draft that year and was thrilled he was available at our turn. That's why I said landing one of PG and Klay is not entirely impossible if we had 10th pick that year rather than we would get one of them for sure. Without a slightly worse record and being the best team in the lottery, the chance to get them is exactly 0.

    It's all about probability. Sure you can draft a superstar like Kobe Bryant and Karl Malone at 13th pick, but the probability of getting a super star with a top 4 pick is way higher. If you're willing to gamble the chance that we pick the best player at 14th pick, which historically has 0% chance, why aren't you willing to gamble at a 52% chance to keep the top 4 pick?
     
    #101 James.B.H, Jan 18, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2021
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  2. Htown's Finest

    Supporting Member

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    Those are great examples that you gave with the other franchises that were in similar situations as we are in now. There is still a chance that this entire season might get cancelled because of Covid. If that does happens that's going to affect teams like the Lakers and the Nets that are on a time clock more than us. Also I don't know if this has been said in this thread yet but these "unprotected Brooklyn picks" might very well be used in a trade to acquire an established star player. All I know is this, we have $50 million dollars in expiring contracts, a ton of picks that could "possibly" be lottery picks (picks that could be used by us or traded), good cheap young talent on the team like Tate and Mason Jones, a budding star in Christian Wood. It's very feasible for us to be back in contention within a 2-3 year window. I really love the moves Stone has made so far. "In Stone we trust!"
     
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  3. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    Dallas absolutely tanked that year, Cuban was even fined for publicly advocating their strategy of tanking. And if you actually watched their game that year, you would know that Carlisle made so many questionable decisions (in terms of winning, right decisions for tanking) to put a bad team to finish games which made them to lose most close games in that year. Their net rating was 22nd in the league that year, while their record was 28th. Sure, they were lucky to be able to select the best player in the draft at 5th pick. But guess what's their chance to get Luka if they didn't lose on purpose and ended up with a 10th pick? ZERO.

    I get the culture thing, but I think it's overrated. The year we got Harden, most of the players were entirely new, we started winning immediately. I believe getting talented players is more important than having players who have winning culture. If you're talking about winning culture for an organization, I do believe we have that culture, and it's not going to just disappear if we try to tank for 1 year, especially if it's done in a smart way.
     
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  4. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    The assets we acquired by not tanking.
     
  5. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    Just think about all the best teams in the last 20 years or so, Spurs, Heat, Cavs, Lakers, Warriors...hell, even OKC, all the success they had happened because they started building through tanking. You could argue the same for Toronto, no tank -> no Derozan -> no Kawhi.

    All those trash tier organizations that have been in the lottery for years aren't bad because of tanking, it's actually the opposite, teams like Orlando, Detroit, Charlotte, Phoenix, Atlanta, Chicago, Minnesota...they've been trying to make the playoffs for years, so much that all of them fired multiple general managers, coaches, tried to sign/trade for players, they just made bad decisions all around. The good organizations that actually went for tanking took advantage of it pretty quickly, think about Hinkie in Philly, Schlenk (he was with the Warriors before, not a coincidence) in Atlanta, Ainge in Boston...Knicks and Kings are pretty much the only organizations that went hard for tanking in these last years and failed, not a coincidence either i guess.

    All to say that no, you don't need to necessarily tank in order to build a great team, there are examples of organizations that have been able to pick and/or develop the right players and build a great team without tanking, think about Denver recently (although you could argue as today they made one conference final and nothing else, let's see how far they'll go in the future), but it's pretty clear and proven that if you tank you have much more chances to achieve that.
     
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  6. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    No, it has nothing to do with refusing to tank. Part of it is luck, as is always the case when you get player of Harden's caliber, either through draft or trade. OKC was dumb enough to make him available, and several other teams passed on him. Part of it is Morey making the right decision.

    As a matter of fact, because we didn't tank, it lowered our chance to get Harden. If we had better picks the previous years, we would be able to make offers that's competitive enough that we wouldn't need to depend on other's team's dumbness to pass on Harden for us to get him.
     
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  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Except there is no guarantee that we even land in the bottom 4. This season is extremely unpredictable. Attempting to maneuver into the bottom 4 is not a smart strategy, when the odds are against you that you’ll get there. There’s benefit to putting out a competitive squad and making the playoffs which I think you are overlooking. It helps for player development, it makes players more attractive to other teams, and it makes our team more attractive to other players.
     
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  8. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    14 is not a 0% chance. Bam and MPJ were 14 picks.

    Yes, you have a higher chance the higher you pick but it's a crapshoot either way. People are way underselling the effects it has on players and coaches.

    We tank for two years and Silas gets fired, even if he's a great coach because players will tune him out, what if he then goes to another team and proves he was exactly the franchise Spo/Pop like coach we had wanted? What if tanking gets Wood out of here and he turns out to be an amazing player 2 years from now?

    I just don't think it's worth it for a 50% shot at a like 10% shot at getting a franchise player.

    Let's look at the last 10 #1 picks...not counting Antman since he's just one year...

    Zion - Franchise player
    Ayton - Meh, fringe all-star it looks like
    Fultz - rotational player
    Simmons - All star
    Towns - All star
    Wiggins - Rotational player
    Bennett - Complete Bust
    Davis - Franchise player
    Irving - All star
    Wall - All star when he was healthy

    So it's like a 50% chance at a 50% chance of getting an all-star...at least but just having an all-star means nothing if your team has to then build around the guy (because you've been tanking...) only then to watch him leave to go else where...

    EDIT: To add, Zion and Davis both proved to be franchise players. Wall, Irving, Kat, all came into the league as really amazing prospects that turned out to be still great players in the league but not franchise players...and really I can't say Zion is that yet. The other guys, all-star like talent...you can find that any where in the NBA if you know what you're doing. Hell, Wood looks like an all-star and he was undrafted.
     
  9. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Why is it overrated though? Like, people say this but they have nothing to back that up. Meanwhile, so many players and coaches have spoken about it that it's a cliche at this point...across all leagues too.

    Tanking for one year is one thing but it really is a slippery slope, when does it end? What if you tank for one year, draft Jalen Suggs, he turns out to suck...then you do it again, right?

    Also, yes we started winning immediately with Harden but we never tanked.

    I just think it's a slippery slope that can put your franchise in the gutter and start this endless cycle of "Next year we'll draft the right guy!" then you do and he plays with your crappy team for his first contract then flees to play elsewhere because your FO has no idea how to build an actual team because they never cared to do so.
     
  10. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    You were talking about getting the best player at 14th pick, so my 0% chance refer to that. No Bam and MPJ are not the best player in their respective drafts.

    I get your points about Wood and Silas, that's why I don't want an extended period of tanking time either. I say we do it for this year because of the following reasons:
    1. We're not good enough to make the playoffs
    2. OKC has the right to swap our pick
    3. Strong draft year
    I don't think we need to try too hard to get to bottom three. Like I said before, just trade PJ, B-Mc, House and Oladipo, load manage Wall, and let the rest guys play as hard as possible. They are a bunch of undrafted kids, so getting playing time should make them comfortable enough.

    Finally, on average, each year gives you about 1.7 players that will be a top 10 player in the league at some point of their career. Rebuilding is a hard process, but we need to have hope.
     
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  11. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Lol you can lose enough if you try
     
  12. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    The competent teams are all good right now? And they all got to where they are through tanking. Spurs are doing the wrong thing right now.?
     
  13. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Christian Wood will be 28 when his contract ends and we won’t be anywhere near a champion so what reason does he have to stay?
     
  14. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    But even the Nuggets got Murray being bad. But yea I agree with you for everything else.
     
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  15. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    Well, there are plenty of examples that a team is bad for a long period of time and when they get good players, they starts to win. Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Celtics, 76ers, just to name a few.

    Like I said, do you think the winning culture to be a player thing or organization thing? For the former, although we didn't tanked prior to Harden, the year we got Harden we had completely new players, and it doesn't stop us from winning; for the latter, I don't think this organization will just lose this culture if we have a losing record for a year or two.

    As for the slippery slope concern, I believe we have a competent FO to not get us into the endless cycle of drafting wrong players and being bad all the time.
     
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  16. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    If we're not good enough to make the playoffs then why tank? Are we bad enough to have the worst record? Certainly now. All we're doing is giving OKC a better pick. All that tanking could give them the #5 pick while we can actually draft #13 (which is most likely at this point) and STILL make the playoffs because of the play-in tourney.

    Your point about 1.7 kind of makes the argument that it's really not worth tanking for such a small chance at drafting that player.

    Also, Kawhi was drafted 15th and was the best player in his draft. Should have been 14th, we were there to draft him at 14th...so it's still not a 0% chance. Guys get drafted later and still turn out to be great players.
     
  17. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    The odds favor tanking fellas. Be serious about winning in the long term rather than having some “dignity” right now.
     
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  18. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    They did not get there by tanking though? Which top team is a top team because they tanked?

    Nets...didn't tank.
    Lakers...Lakers mystique draws Lebron there
    Bucks...Giannis another 15th pick...
    Clippers...Didn't tank.
    Celtics...nope, they just fleeced the Nets to build their team.

    None of these teams really went into some full tank mode to build their team. Warriors dynasty was built on good drafting and coaching. Spurs did tank for a year to get Duncan but again finding gems like Manu and Parker is what built that team.
     
  19. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    a 2% difference is what you're talking about though. That's just the math.

    You want to destroy team psyche for 2% chance more to maybe possibly draft a franchise player.
     
  20. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    I think the key difference between us is our expectation of the team to make the playoffs. My argument is largely based on my prediction that this team, at its best would have a record of about 20th in the league. Then why not tactically be slight worse and get to the bottom? BTW, I don't think it matters what pick we give OKC, what matters is what's the chance that we can keep our pick if it's a top one. I think the Heat is going to bounce back and make the playoffs, so we won't draft #13, more likely #20 if we don't get top 4.

    Yea, I am wrong about the 0% chance. I guess I shouldn't make such an assertive argument when I haven't run the numbers exclusively. But the point is the chance is extremely low.

    I was about to accept mediocrity for the next 10, 20 years when Harden demanded the trade. But my heart still says we should gamble for the slim chance to contend in the next decade. Tanking this year certainly helps this gamble IMO, as it'll be like 10% chance to draft a top 10 player in the league.
     
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