You again are banking on the Nets being incompetent though. They could last 3-4 years with one chip and then we are banking on one Nets being incompetent and then another gamble on those picks, sigh it’s a bad deal. One or two good picks(that you may or may not get for James Harden) is garbage. God damn man. I’m not being negative tanking is the smart thing to do for a generational talent. But It’s stupid to like the Nets and not want to tank now. It’s silly. They were ass for Klay and Steph and that’s what matters.
It’s 53% if we have one of the 3 worst records .... that’s the odds of keeping the draft pick if we prioritize chasing it.... risk/reward- I bet we chase it. it’s really stupid not too. Don’t dip your toe , jump in!
If you are that confident in Stone than he should get “lucky” too. We are not Miami. There isn’t a Jimmy Butler to bail us out. And they are unlikely to make the finals again.
We're also not Detroit, Sactown, Twolves, or other teams that tank for years and have nothing to show for it. Silver has made it harder to get rewarded for tanking. Stone should just draft well, that's an easier route to actually contending again Irrelevant when the point is to tank or not to tank. Morey had he tanked would not have been able to get Harden. We would not have had the assets to do so. Winning attracts good players and winning means your team is run well. Losing means you're just trying to get lucky and even still your team likely is too dumb to even pick the generational player before them and picks Johnny Flynn or Bagley instead...
I had exactly the same thought prior to Harden's trade, now I feel quite the opposite. The fact that OKC has the right to swap our pick is exactly the reason why it's beneficial to have as bad a record as possible this season. Either the team tries the best to win as many games as possible, and ends with the 20th best record in the league, missing the playoffs, and have an about 90% chance of getting a lottery pick swapped to a pick around 20; or management trade veterans, PJ, Mclemore, House, Oladipo for assets, load manage John Wall, develop the young players, and let the team lose naturally to have a bottom 3 record in the league, and have an over 50% chance to keep a top 4 pick. The worst pick we'll get is the Heat's pick, if we don't try to tank, we'll get the worst pick for sure. I like the 50% chance to get a top 4 pick, which might convert to a franchise player. It's better than 0 anyway.
It is relevant when it was implied that we chose not to last time, therefore that will be the same outcome. I was only stating that that Our Mad genius GM at the time openly talked about the advantages of high end lottery picks. He was just forced to rebuild on the fly , we were lucky to get Harden. That never happens. His Protege Hinke, attacked the way he wanted too in Philadelphia... they did miss on several of those picks. But they got a couple of stars ... that’s the way when your not a premier free agent destination. And we are not right now for sure !!!!
At the time it was a viable strategy but the lottery changed significantly since then. As I mentioned, the difference between getting the top pick and having the 10th is 5%. Also, the Clippers were not a premier destination either but Kawhi goes there with PG13 because they were competitive. KD and Kyrie chose the Nets, another competitive team. Now I know the argument "But that's NY and LA!" Ok, but why then has Houston attracted more superstar players in its history than the Clippers, The Knicks, and the Nets? Lakers are the only franchise that historically attracts players because of its legacy. It's like Barcelona, it's like the Yankees, it's an 'honor' to wear the jersey. Other than that, Houston has had no issues attracting star players. Hell, Dwight chose Houston OVER LA. Don't believe the media hype, Houston is a popular city among ballers.
You think this is a coincidence? Tanking teams have incompetent management because the idea is they have no clue on how to actually build teams and hope to just luck into drafting the next Lebron or Curry...but of course they never do because even when they have a chance to they again...pick some scrub like Flynn...
At what point do you stop selling off valuable players though? Let’s say we draft a promising rookie next year and by the time he’s developed into a stud it’s time to negotiate his next contract. Do we trade him off for more picks because our team isn’t ready to contend yet? Wood at 25 seems like a foundational piece who if he continues to develop could be a max player for us down the line. I’m not disagreeing for the sake of it, I just think it’s incredibly difficult to build a team to lose games rather than win them. Granted, we’re not in a position this year to throw stupid money at some vets to make the second round or something. I’m fine rolling with who we’ve got and getting the young guys some burn. FWIW we might’ve gotten the steal of the draft in Mason Jones, who by the way, wasn’t even drafted.
I think Morey was about to start full tank model the year we got Harden. That Lin and Asik signing obviously were aiming for tanking. We just got lucky that Harden got available and several teams ahead of us didn't make the trade. Given the way teams value young players nowadays, I really don't see a similar trade ever happens again. Even though we were very lucky, those three years of being the lottery Champion cost us a lot. If we were just a little worse, moving up our picks from 14 to around 10, Klay Thompson and Paul George were in that range. It's totally possible that we missed both of them, but landing one of them is not an unreasonable assumption either. Imagine what happens if we have Klay or PG in the 8 years of Harden's career here.
The competent teams aren't tanking anymore. As mentioned tanking only gets you about a 50% chance at getting a high draft pick now. Is it really worth throwing your young players and coach's psyche into the garbage for a chance to draft a player that might be good?
Rockets could have drafted Kawhi, not even a hindsight thing, I was here. Everyone was so thrilled he fell to us but nope...we had to get another undersized PF that turned out to be a decent rotational player and nothing more. The draft is a crapshoot. We could pick 14 next year and still draft the best player in the draft.
Exactly. The argument becomes ridiculous when Christian Wood is already being auctioned off in hypotheticals
Thats not accurate at all. In fact we had just sold off Lowry for a pick and let Dragic walk in free agency. Asset collection is what got us Harden