Considering that Hand could have been had for $10M and Hendricks signed for effectively $13.5M AAV (club option is a free year, but is only there for luxury tax manipulation purposes), I think the relief market is about as expected or maybe slightly more robust. Baez got more than expected by many suggesting he was wanted by Astros for a perceived market inefficiency (my guess being that Astros value pop ups and worm killers more than other teams). Treinen, slightly more than expected.
Either way, based on all the RP signings over the last month, it’s more than safe to assume Joe Smith would have been able to secure at least a $4M/1yr deal.
Perhaps you forget the discussion was after Hand had already passed through waivers unclaimed, before the free agent period began. That fact was one of the major points you argued when you stated last month that Smith was "probably worth 2-3 million". A month later, the data appears to show the market values RP more than that. Not just Hendricks and Treinen - look at Trevor May (2y, $15m). A friend of mine who is a Dodgers fan texted me about the Baez signing, "Good riddance". I don't know that he's a guy we're going to be comfortable with in playoff pressure situations.
Other than Baez, I have not seen data to support Smith getting $4M. Though Baez excels in a stat many Astros excel (xwOBA) relative to other teams. The projections I see for May are 4-6 times more WAR than Smith in 2021. That would estimate Smith being worth about $2M tops. Treinen is projected for 3-4 times more WAR than Smith in 2021. This would suggest Smith being worth about $3M tops. Hendriks is more difficult to equate as $/WAR will likely greatly increase while he probably is very different in 4 years than he is today. Though, he's projected for 5 to 8 times as much WAR as Smith in 2021 despite an AAV only a little more than 3 times Smith's $4M. In other words, he'll likely almost match the WAR needed to be worth it based on Smith's $/WAR after 2 years with 2 years of Hendriks essentially free regardelss of how $/WAR and aging affects Hendriks.
WAR does not typically value leverage enough such that it under rates guys like Hendriks, Treinen, and May such that they are slightly underestimated versus Smith. So yes, my numbers are biased, but not biased in a way to support my opinion. Though, fWAR is still likely better than the alternative of pulling value of players out of thin air.
Joe Smith is an effective reliever. I think people use the eye test, and because he doesn't throw 95-100, people think he's trash. But the dude gets outs, and that's all we should care about. We really missed his presence last year.
That is a lot for a guy that has been left off playoff rosters in the past. I keep picturing Click dumpster diving trying to find a gem.... he seems to think he is still working for the Rays. Dumpster diving is fine to fill out the end of the roster, but not when you are trying to get your high leverage relievers. I mostly remember Baez for being booed at Dodgers stadium.
As for Joe Smith, I don't think he is worth 4 million, but I wouldn't have signed Baez either. I would rather pool that money and use it to go towards a better reliever personally. Who knows ultimately, there is a lot of variability. Maybe Joe Smith produces a really low WHIP and ERA all year and far exceeds his contract... it is all a crap shoot. I just am less concerned with pen depth than most because there are a GLUT of relievers out there right now that can likely be had cheaply.
I agree. I would prefer Treinen (not saying he is your preference) for the same money this year as Baez and Smith though many here would consider that crazy talk. Though, I should say Treinen isn't my favorite either.
So, is it fair to describe Baez as a disgruntled ex-Dodger? Was the decision to sign him based at all on the possibility of getting intel on the Dodgers organization?
I would have liked having Smith last year. I have confidence in his pitching. It isn't his fault the pandemic happened and he had a sick mom.
I'm with you on this... I'm not sure what Click has in mind but I'm not seeing what he is thinking. OF needs to be address more than signing a guy like Baez.
Someone mentioned it earlier in the thread... I think they have targeted a couple veteran relievers because they are dangling some young relief arms in trade talks to bolster the OF. Pretty sure something will shake soon
MacTaggert's comments in that article are interesting. I am not sure how plugged in to the front office's actual thinking he is, but he made several comments that surprised me: Click is thinking short term They would be willing to include Whitley Astros don't have SP prospects to trade away Front office thinks they can have "one more run at it" He thinks they will not trade for Benintendit because they will sign Brantley instead If any of those are true then Click is not the GM I think/hope he is. Short term thinking? Including a potential ace and your best prospect for a guy who has sucked for 2 years? SIgning an aging veteran to play LF when you don't have a CF and you need to get younger? Relegating your franchise to another rebuild? Ugh.
Not sure what you expect. I mean, yea if they trade Whitley for Benintendi I would not be happy, but there are plenty of guys I would move Whitley to get. Springer, Brantley, Correa, Greinke, Verlander, McCullers, Maldonado, Joe Smith, and Brooks Raley are all free agents this off season or next, and Yuli and Pressly could be gone as well next off season. The team is going to be drastically different very shortly, and Crane isn't going to carry a 200 plus million dollar payroll year after year. The CF market is lame after Springer. Maybe Nimmo or Grichuk becomes available if Springer goes to the Mets or Blue Jays. Outside of that, I don't see any decent CFers being available via trade, and next year isn't much better. 33 year old Starling Marte is the best available free agent CFer next off season. Jackie Bradley Jr is almost 31 so you aren't really getting younger with him either. We don't have a lot of highly rated prospects outside of Whitley to make any sort of major trade. We like to talk up guys like Abreu and Garcia around here. They aren't highly rated and they aren't landing you a big time player. I expect them to patch it together for one more run. Then the future as a real contender beyond this year will totally depend on the young guys stepping up and finding a star in someone like Leon. The saving grace continues to be our divisional opponents continuing to suck.
Only the front office knows how likely it is to be able to re-sign Correa. If he is definitely leaving trade him now for a boatload of prospects, sign LeMaheiu, trade for Benitelli if cheap enough, and try to sign Brantley. If you can't get benitelli go with Straw or some other journeyman sign like profar until Leon is ready. Lineup: Altuve Brantley Bregman Lemaheiu Yordan Tucker Benitelli Yuli Machete