Buyout shifts a couple million from 2023 budget across 2021 and 2022. I like the optimism that luxury tax will be an issue in 2023.
This signing for the amount that was paid is a head scratcher. I know he's had good results the past few seasons, but why overpay for a guy with declining velo and pretty bad projections?
The only things I can think is they expect a rebound in velocity (or at least not to drop much more) and/or they think he's like Javier in that he relies on a skill most can't repeat. As most can't repeat it, projections don't give him any (much) credit for batted ball profile. Basically, he has been locating his fastball up the past 2 years which has generated pop ups (though risks homers) and has just enough movement to keep some mistakes from going over the fence at an unprecedented rate. Even still, I would have expected Astros to get a better deal than they got. If he get back to striking out guys, he will be dominant. If he loses any more velocity, I worry the pop ups become homers.
He is very good when he comes into a clean inning. He is not so good coming in with runners on base. As an organization the Dodgers know what they are doing as a general rule. His velocity has dropped, and if I remember correctly he isn't just throwing his fastball anymore. Maybe the signing works out but I would be lying if I said I was excited about it.
He pitched hurt last year for half his appearances. So that could be part of it. He also has mixed in two secondary pitches that he has had success with. His fastball placement has improved too. A few years ago he was throwing 98-99 and is now sitting 94-95. I suppose the hope is that he gets it back up to 96-97 and is effective.
Baez is an excellent 7th or sometimes 8th inning option, especially in low leverage and/or clean innings. His contract is probably 20% higher than most of us would have liked but it is by no means onerous. He is similar to Joe Smith in those ways. Having those guys available after Taylor, Raley, and Stanek means Houstons 6th and 7th inning options will always be top notch. I expect Paredes to be a solid 8th inning option, but whether that applies to all types of leverage situations remains to be seen. And of course Pressly is an elite reliever who can close but in a perfect world would be the primary 8th inning guy. Here’s hoping the Astros can add another legit closing option without overpaying or coming at the expense of filling other holes. Baez is only being talked about because Houston has not made any meaningful moves so far this offseason. By 3/1 he will be an afterthought.
He's throwing his fastball less. Considering he's not a K pitcher, he would not be ideal for coming in with runners on especially with runners in scoring position. I'm not excited about it either, but merely guessing on what Astros see in him. If he stays like he was, he will be fine. He looks like a drop of a tick of velocity from not being good.
