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How About This Weather We've Been Having?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Cohete Rojo, May 4, 2015.

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  1. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Oklahoma?
     
  2. K LoLo

    K LoLo Member

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    This, and watching the radar, was giving me hope. Went to bed disappointed. Didn't see anything.
     
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  3. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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  4. Uprising

    Uprising Contributing Member

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    It was awesome. Snowed all day here in the Round Rock area. We supposedly got around 6-7" (not counting the first couple inches that melted on contact). It's still a few inches deep in my yard right now, and everything has snow on it still but the roads now.
     
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  5. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  7. Xenon

    Xenon Contributing Member

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    I'm sure many of you have heard of the potential snow for this weekend into early next week. The models have been showing the possibility of a historic outbreak of cold for the area. Gfs shows temps getting down to single digits for example. It's all completely up in the air right now but anything from the January event (not much in the city) to a massive ice or snow storm appears to be possible. Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner.

    A significant outbreak of arctic air is increasingly likely this weekend into next week.

    Potential for a winter storm late weekend into early next week

    Today-Thursday:

    Surface frontal boundary has been stalled along US 59 for much of the night with temperatures NW of this boundary in the 40/50’s and SE of the boundary in the 60’s. Dense sea fog has spread inland south of the front and recently a few showers have begun to develop along and north of the boundary. This front will remain nearly stationary for much of the day along US 59 and then begin moving southward tonight. A strong upper level disturbance will approach the region tonight into Thursday and pull moisture up and over the surface cold dome resulting in widespread showers and some thunderstorms on Thursday. Most of the rainfall today will be showers, drizzle, and light rain and that will become more widespread and increase in intensity Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will fall on Thursday into the 50’s for the entire region with 40’s over the NW counties as the front moves offshore.

    The upper level disturbance will move east of the area and Friday and a cold Canadian air mass will settle over the region with cold air advection ongoing. Expect all rainfall to end by Friday morning, but clouds may hang tough much of the day. Will go with lows in the upper 30’s and highs in the upper 40’s on Friday…but this is just a small taste of what is to come.

    Weekend:

    Impressive arctic high pressure dome over NW Canada surges southward down the US central plains with global forecast models showing 1040-1050mb arctic high centered over the Midwest by Sunday morning. Expect the arctic front to arrive in SE TX Saturday afternoon and already cool temperatures will fall. Strong cold air advection increases again Saturday night and will likely drive much of the area below freezing. This will likely be an advective freeze which tends to be highly damaging to sensitive plants as the concept of using the ground warmth with covering materials is reduced in strong surface wind situations. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 40 for much of the area and the entire area will fall below freezing Sunday evening and likely remain below freezing into midday Tuesday. Lows Monday morning will likely range in the 20’s for the entire area with wind chills in the teens…this is still warmer than some of the coldest guidance and some downward adjustments may be needed as the time period nears.

    Winter Storm Potential:

    Arctic air masses are notorious for their cold and potential for winter storms with some of our most memorable events of the past happening with the upper air setup of this weekend into next week. As the arctic cold dome becomes entrenched on Sunday, an upper level storm system will approach from the western US and move into TX Sunday night and Monday. This upper level system will induce surface low pressure over the lower TX coast that will bring moisture northward into the very cold air mass. Precipitation is increasingly possible Sunday night into Monday night. Forecast soundings indicate all precipitation types would be possible (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) at various times during the period as the shallow arctic air mass deepens over the area.

    There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much moisture will be available, but there is increasing confidence in some sort of winter precipitation during this period

    Preparation:

    Residents should make cold weather preparations for an extended period of very cold weather (4 P’s) and this will have to include pipes for this event. Most events in this area are mild and short duration and do not effect pipes, but pipes will need to be protected for the intensity of the cold and long duration of sub-freezing conditions.

    Monitor forecasts closely for updates over the next few days.
     
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  8. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    Had -22c and around a 45cm layer of snow in my region this week, this 2021 winter has been pretty rough so far in Germany.
     
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  9. davidio840

    davidio840 Contributing Member

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    Latest model runs still pretty consistent with some extreme cold and winter precip Sunday into Monday. Pretty amazing consistency over the last several days. This is looking like it may actually come to fruition, which may be a record breaking event.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    A week of -22c in Houston and Houston Covid cases would drop in half if not by more. Though, there would be record numbers of frost related deaths.
     
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  11. DonkeyMagic

    DonkeyMagic Contributing Member
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    And I was just about to start spring prep work for the yard and plants. I was just thinking how lucky we were to have kept all the plants in the flower beds alive:(
     
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  12. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Positive vibes all around.
     
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  13. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2021/02/10/what-to-know-about-this-arctic-blast/

    [​IMG]

    Not only does the American have a prolonged freezing stretch from Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon, this one drops our temperature to 5° Tuesday morning! Let’s hope for the European, which craters us to 17° but not for a long period and we recover quickly. Why the difference? The European seems to be holding on to that southwest flow I talked about in my blog Monday. Note below the “red” wind area which is a STRONG southwest wind that would mix warmer upper air into the colder surface air:

    [​IMG]

    That is an outlier model though and you’ll still have to plan on a very cold Tuesday morning if nothing else. Oh, there is something else -- winter precipitation.

    One thing all the models agree on is a Monday winter weather outbreak of a sleet/snow/ice mix. Here’s the aggressive American Model:

    [​IMG]

    The American model predicts 3-6″ of it for Houston and even has snow all the way to the coast:

    [​IMG]

    The Canadian drops 2-3″ of snow, while the ICON has just flurries and the European goes with just flurries (1-2″ north of Houston). However, we can’t rule out ice which is a big problem around here.
     
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  14. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    lol. I'm seeing highs of 16, lows of 2, and wind chill in the negatives on some forecasts for the DFW area. Imma die. I want cold weather in winter, not Siberian/North Dakotan weather. I just hope the pipes survive.
     
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  15. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    If you have a sprinkler system, I guarantee you that your bell valve will break unless you drain the system. Even if you wrap it, it'll break.
     
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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    ****’s lasting all of next week? The ****?!
    Bring on summer!

     
    #616 J.R., Feb 10, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2021
  17. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

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    I have a sprinkler system but I'm not aware of a bell valve. Do all sprinkler systems have them? I've never done anything in a freeze to protect my sprinkler system but I don't recall temps getting to 3 degrees (next week), either. I'm concerned about what I need to do.

    From my initial reading, I need to turn the water valve off that sends water from the main to the sprinkler system. I believe this is buried in my front yard in one of those boxes with a cover. I may also need to look for and open a bleed valve if there is one.

    The only thing I see coming from my sprinkler controller is a solitary small PVC pipe that goes outside from the garage and into the ground with no valve. I assume that pipe contains wires that go to each of the solenoids buried around the front and back yard...to control each station's on/off operation?

    The next thing I think I'm supposed to do is run a single station for a few minutes to relieve pressure and drain the system lines. That seems like it might alleviate any pressure in the lines but may not clear out all the water considering it's a water pressure driven system and there would be none with the water valve turned off...so water would potentially remain in the lines.

    Other than that, am I missing anything? I was reading some stuff about winterizing and they said a person would come out blowing compressed air into the lines to clear the system. But, if you run the system for a few minutes after shutting off the water, then why would you need to do that (which I may have answered above)?
     
    #617 Surfguy, Feb 10, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2021
  18. Newlin

    Newlin Member

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    [​IMG]
    many people in Houston have something that looks like this as part of their sprinkler system. It’s a backflow preventer. There are YouTube videos showing you how to drain the water from this device to prevent it from cracking when the water freezes. Your system may be different than this, but this is very common in Houston. I’ve had to replace two of these over the past 20 years. Sometimes just the plastic parts inside the preventer break. But the brass BALL valves can also break. The ball valves are the parts with the handles to turn off the water. I’ve replaced the entire backflow preventer myself for about $80 bucks, but a professional will probably charge you at least several hundred.
     
    #618 Newlin, Feb 10, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2021
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  19. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  20. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I have to do that this weekend before it gets too cold. I bought a cover for it last night that will be delivered on Saturday. Fingers crossed. No idea which of my plants I need to prioritize.
     

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