I don't see those things (schedule, coaching, suspended players returning) as making this team into a contender. We'll be bad the next 2 years at least. Might as well get draft picks if we're gonna suck anyway and Watt, Tunsil, mckinney, Cunningham will leave in a few years, before we're good again
Right, because this is the game you've decided to play: whatever the Texans don't have, that will be the key to them getting better. In your mind, a first and second round pick + cap space is the only path forward. This entire thread was started to demonstrate how coaching and small changes can make a significant difference. If they land a great GM and head coach, then their lack of draft capital and cap space can be easily mitigated for the year in which it (might) be a factor.
That's not the game I'm playing. Teams low on talent usually get better with picks and free agents, it's just a reality. Maybe we hire genius coach and gm who don't need picks and capspace, but in that case imagine what dynasty they could build by having more draft capital and capspace
The Texans are not "low on talent" - and with better evaluators/coaching, they may have more talent than we realize. That's not to say they're "high" on talent - they are not. But they have a decent nucleus: Watson, Fuller, Cooks, Tunsil (maybe Howard, Schrapling, Heck can be part of it, too - again: better evaluating/coaching) - is a nice place to start on offense. And I think they have some pieces on defense, too. Regardless, the draft is longer than 2 rounds & the vast majority of splashy, expensive free agents rarely work out. The good teams find talent in the margins - both in the draft and free agency. You need to stop acting like this is impossible. It's not. They have 8 picks this year and everything goes back to normal, draft-wise, literally one year from today. Frankly, I'd rather talk about good teams and how they maintain/get better despite lesser draft capital and cap space.
Fuller is likely gone because we don't have the capspace to re-sign him.. Quite possibly Cooks gets cut as he gets paid $12m next year and has no dead cap (we'd save $12m in capspace). I'd have to disagree on this team being high on talent. The harsh reality on the draft: The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter. The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
Maybe reread this sentence to understand my frustration with your viewpoint here?... "WE DON'T HAVE CAP SPACE! Meanwhile, here's a way to save $12MM." I literally said they were not high on talent. But they're not "low" on talent. They have a top 5 QB. They have pieces. This isn't starting from scratch. Cool.
The ways to open up capspace involve cutting/trading guys and getting worse in the short term aka rebuilding
Sorry Hey Now, I just don't see a path from 2020>21 that is anything remotely similar to 2010>11. This team maxed out the credit card and has a drawer full of junk to show for it. For 2021 to be anything but a crap cassarole, the Texans will need to hire both an absolute wizard of a HC and hope that their schedule is pillow soft. There are dark days ahead. The realistic best case scenario is that we aren't out of the playoff race by Thanksgiving.
Maybe it's just 2 years, if we are aggressive enough. 2023 we'll have more capspace and would be the second full draft in a row (with hopefully additional picks from trades). But if we hold onto everybody hoping to win now, it will take longer
Here is what I don't understand. Why would a good GM which the Texans claim they're looking for want to hold on to everyone? You say there is no cap space but we've seen teams with $177 dollars in cap space not $100,000 but $177 create cap space. It's nothing new. Obviously you can't cut Mercilus or Cobb but.. cutting Bmac, Nick, Johnson, Fulton, and Duke Johnson will clear up $23 million. Restructure Watt and Cooks you're looking at 7 more million cleared. (I think the Mcnair's are going to ask for the new GM to keep Watt. The best thing would be trading him for a 3rd to the Steelers.) So $30 million cleared the easy way without having to ask Mercilus for a restructure but if he's a great teammate let's say he restructures. That's $35 million. And the league is not going to shrink the salary cap like originally thought or so they say. 35 million is enough to Sign Fuller, Find 2, 2nd tier starters in free agency and money for the draft picks. If the New GM convinces the Mcnairs to trade Watt, you're looking at another 9 million freed.
Well we actually have negative 13.5 million in capspace now. So while those moves would help, we still wouldn't have a ton. But the main issue is cutting those guys makes us worse. Yeah I agree with cutting Martin, Duke, bmac, fulton, David johnson. But we're not likely to replace them right away with better players.
Yes - they need to hire a great head coach - and a great GM, too. Those are steps 1 & 2 and I'm not relegating either to foregone conclusions nor will they be easy. But hitting on both would represent significant upgrades. Here are the two reasons I'm optimistic (well, 3 - #1 is the new FO/HC): 2. the Texans were 2-8 in one-score games this year. Records in one score games are not, generally, terribly reflective of good/bad teams. They'll fluctuate wildly year-to-year. (Case in point: the Texans were 8-3 last year.) They're much more reflective of 1) a team being competitive (10 of the Texans games were one-score this year - that's a good thing); 2) a team being lucky/unlucky. Consider the four losses to the Colts & Titans - a) one came down to a coin flip; b) another to a kicker's ricochet bouncing in and not out; c) two more to fumbles inside opponents' five-yard line. Play those games again and they're not likely to end with all four bounces going against the Texans. That's not to say they should've/would've been wins or the Texans incompetence/execution didn't play a factor. But teams should generally be around .500 in one-score games (the Texans are exactly 25-25 since 2016) so if they do nothing, a simple regression to the mean likely means a 1-3 win swing in close games. If they play ~10 close games again next year (they've played 32 one-score games since '18)......... I mean... as bad as they are - if the Texans win a coin flip, if Watson doesn't fumble a snap. if Coutee doesn't fumble at the goal line, if Tennessee's kick misses..... Again, I am *not* arguing they should be 8-8. I *am* arguing a significant difference between 4-12 and 8-8 are four incredibly unlucky breaks. 3. Deshaun Watson (he's the reason 32/48 games have been close the past three years)
On the other hand, the Texans had one of the worst point differentials in the league (7th worst I believe)
The Texans are low on defensive talent. But, there are opportunities to create cap space through cuts and certain trades. The next front office has a lot of work to do, but it's not impossible to turn it around. You have at least something on offense to work with when #4 is under center. You cannot have a bottom-of-the-league defense (or near bottom-of-the-league defense) in every important category and expect to win; it's way too much to overcome. 30th in total defense (6668 yards allowed, 416.8 yards per game) 24th in passing defense 32nd in rushing defense (2,564 rushing yards given up, 160.3 yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry) 32nd in takeaways (9 total forced turnovers) 27th in scoring defense (464 points allowed, 29.0 points per game; most allowed in franchise history) 29th in opponents' 3rd down conversion rate (47.5%) 22nd in opponents' red zone TD rate (63.5%) 32nd in opponents' completion percentage (69.7%) 25th in missed tackles (115 missed tackles) Of course, you don't need the stats to see that the defense was all-time bad. These guys could not get off the field on third down. It was shameful.
They don't need a top 5, or even top 10 defense. If they can get to the... 20s - they will win some games next year.
It was -80 - but -34 after BOB was fired. They had as many 2+-score deficits (2) in BOB's four games as they did in the next 12. It's like coaching matters, or something...
They are. That's why they had the 7th worst point diferential. We should cut/trade the little talent we have for draft picks.
If the ownership of this franchise were of the caliber of say the Rooney family in Pittsburgh, then I would be in agreement with your post. However, what we have here in Houston is more akin to the Clampetts of Beverly Hills and it won't be Uncle Jed or Mr. Drysdale picking the next head coach and GM but rather Jethro so you can forgive my lack of faith that this ownership will (somehow) make the right decision (this time). Right now this ownership (Cal) and dysfunctional operation (Easterby) have zero credibility as far as I'm concerned.
