Rox on T-Mac's Horizon?

Fun speculation:

Factoring in McGrady's wishes, the best trading partners for the Magic are the ... Houston Rockets... (11 other teams also mentioned, BTW.)

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/spor...r25,1,5948970.story?coll=orl-sports-headlines

Trading McGrady no deal for Magic

Orlando could get some players but would be better off keeping T-Mac.

By Jerry Brewer | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted April 25, 2004

Tracy McGrady drifted from amused to agitated. Trade speculation can drain enthusiasm.

In an overt attempt to change the conversation, McGrady huffed, peered with his sleepy eyes and uttered an incomplete sentence.

"If it goes down that way, hey . . . "

The Orlando Magic would like to avoid what comes after "hey." But if their superstar won't commit to a contract extension this summer, they will consider trading him.

Since playoff basketball is now defunct here, Orlando has little else to do than fret over McGrady trade scenarios this NBA postseason. Until there is resolution, innuendo reigns.

Today's contemplation: What is McGrady's trade value?

If it comes down to that, hey . . . the Magic can get something good or a couple of somethings good. But if you're looking for something great, good luck.

And that's what McGrady was trying to say. He was indicating that he'd be fine, trade or no trade, because he is a coveted player. But the Magic, on the other hand, had better remember to respect his talent.

Several NBA executives and agents agree. There are many issues -- positive and negative -- that influence McGrady's trade value. There is, however, no question that McGrady is more valuable as a Magic superstar than as trade bait.

"You're starting over without Tracy," one agent said. "They've done it before, but Orlando's become devalued as a franchise. If they lose Tracy after losing Shaq -- not to mention Penny Hardaway and Grant Hill -- it won't be considered a good place for a star. I'm not sure anyone will want to go there. And you're not going to do it with spare parts."

Around the league, many people have opinions. Few express them with a name attached. It comes from a desire to hide their teams' thinking and a belief that rambling on about another franchise sounds too much like trash talking.

Through anonymous chitchat, however, you get a good sense of how to shape a McGrady trade.

The consensus is that McGrady, who won his second straight scoring title this past season, remains a top-tier talent. Most consider him among the league's 10 best players. Within those 10, McGrady is clearly behind Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett, who are all 7-footers. Many include guard Kobe Bryant on that list. Some say power forward Jermaine O'Neal belongs there, ton the second half of the top tier, there is McGrady -- along with Allen Iverson and rising youngsters Yao Ming, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. And then there's another shelf that includes Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce, among others.

Star power is judged and classified by ability, numbers, impact and the potential to draw fans. While it would be difficult (but not impossible) for the Magic to trade for a more suitable talent, it is highly unlikely they would find a player who rates as well as McGrady does as a star.

"Considering everything, there's only about seven or eight players like him," one executive said. "Once you get one, you hold on to him."

McGrady is scheduled to make nearly $14.5 million next season. His salary is important because, unless a team is under the cap, salaries have to match in a trade. In theory, the Magic would get $14.5 million worth of talent in return if they swapped their franchise player.

General Manager John Weisbrod, also the team's chief operating officer, has expressed admiration for the way the Detroit Pistons rebuilt after Grant Hill signed with Orlando four years ago. If they have to deal McGrady, the Magic figure to follow a similar model. The Magic would accept a trade for multiple B-talents and try to put together a deep roster.

The success of the Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies have some in this copycat league believing teams don't have to be modeled around star players, especially if there is just one star. The recent struggles of single-star teams -- Orlando with McGrady, the Toronto Raptors with Vince Carter, and the Minnesota Timberwolves with Garnett, prior to this season -- support this theory.

"I'm not so sure about the concept that you can't win with these guys, though," an agent said.

Fair or not, that theory and the Magic's 21-61 record this season hurt McGrady's stock. The maturity of McGrady, who is a month from 25, came into question. His leadership was attacked. He even was called a whiner by former Georgetown coach John Thompson. He continues to be slammed for the Magic's 19-game losing streak at the start of this past season.

Magic point guard Tyronn Lue, who is on McGrady's side, has played with stars such as Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal and Bryant during his NBA career. When asked earlier this season about McGrady's maturation, Lue said, "I don't think he understands the star he is."

Lue said McGrady would grow if given time. Because of his talent, most star-desperate teams wouldn't hold one tough season against him. But it might make a team less likely to give up too much for McGrady.

Another factor that could hurt McGrady's trade value is his contract. If McGrady tells the Magic that he wants to be traded, he has all the power in any trade situation. For the Magic to get quality players in a trade, McGrady would have to want to sign long-term with his new team.

He already has stated he wants to play with a winner and with a team he doesn't have to carry alone.

Considering those parameters, all those young, talented and terrible teams -- the Los Angeles Clippers, Chicago Bulls and Golden State Warriors -- are out. Most winning teams are very thoughtfully constructed and don't have an abundance of individual talent. It further shrinks McGrady's trade value because most teams don't have a lot of talent they can afford to give up.

There will be 30 teams in the NBA next season, but you can cut down those vying for McGrady significantly.

Factoring in McGrady's wishes, the best trading partners for the Magic are the Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Portland Trail Blazers, New Jersey Nets, San Antonio Spurs and Sacramento Kings.

Of course, a general manager could become infatuated with McGrady, trade a superstar for him and just hope that he can convince McGrady to re-sign. Danny Ainge in Boston, perhaps?

In such a case, the Magic would have to take the certainty of Pierce over the uncertainty of whether they can re-sign McGrady, though Pierce is not quite as good.

By the end of this, it will be a simple decision for the Magic. If McGrady wants to stay, he stays. If he doesn't, they trade him. There's little gray area. As with all things, however, nothing is as simple as it seems.

"I would hope by the start of next season we will have a much better feeling of how he feels about us than we do now," Weisbrod said of McGrady. "That is one of the things I have to make [a] priority to get accomplished over the course of the offseason."

If it doesn't get accomplished, hey . . . the fall will be awfully intriguing. Scary, too.

 

Smith has a rotten record, IMO, with his columns. However, I posted these excerpts because we like to see this crap for so-called credible sources.

 

INCLUDES ability to put fannies in seats.