Haha. Thanks. I try really hard to maintain perspective. I enjoy the winning and refuse to wallow in the fatalism while I rarely subscribe to the idea that a bad situation is WAY WORSE THAN IT SEEMS! (It's usually not.) Rationality is often Kryptonite to most fans, LOL... And I get it. But there are several relevant "excuses" for 2020 that are very unlikely to be sustainable: 1) they are -9 in TO differential, a notoriously unpredictable statistic (they were 0 in '19); 2) they are 2-7 in one-score games, another wildly unpredictable stat (8-3 in '19); 3) their schedule has been *brutal* - 9 games against teams that have won 10+ games (just 4 in '19). Finally, they have Deshaun Watson. Imagine going through this with... Ryan Mallet. And! Coaching matters. Now imagine Deshaun Watson being coached by a competent offensive staff; with a competent offensive line coach; with a competent defensive staff...
Agree, coaching matters and Robert Saleh is the guy that I'd love to see us hire. He's done a helluva job of working with a depleted defense this year and from the sounds of this article, could likely sway some DB help to come our way as well. https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/4...sions-robert-saleh-taking-three-49ers-dbs-him
I'm really warming up the Dodds/Eberflus package. I really love that Eberflus is not a product of any coaching tree - he's actually worked with several different systems and coaches &, in Indy, McDaniels/Ballard actually hired him but Ballard convinced him to stay (after McDaniels bailed) with Reich (whom Eberflus had never met).
We don't have the capspace or picks to patch up the offense and defense to get anywhere close to contending. 25 is a good time to rebuild, because in a few years the QB will be in his prime. Worse to stay mediocre for the QBs entire career
They won 21 games the past two years; they were 2-7 in one score games this year; they played 9 games v teams that have won at least 10+ games; they have a top 3-5 QB. They will improve dramatically with a better coaching staff; more so with a competent front office. Look at what the Packers did after jettisoning McCarthy. It's very possible better coaching alone will make them better. But the Texans have 8 picks in '21 and can easily clear cap space. You're pushing this strange narrative in which they seemingly have no way to improve their team: they do. It's not ideal - but they can do it.
Hopkins is gone, clowney is gone, they don't have a pick until the third round next year, they are bottom ten in capspace the next two years at least. Watson is good but not that good, nobody is. Better to sell some assets, accumulate picks and start spending in 3-4 years along with hopefully some high draft selections
No question. To me, the question is....will ownership get this one right? That's the part that keeps me up at night. Not literally, but you know... The next time Texans ownership knocks one out of the park will be the first. Yes, I know they fired BOB, but they should have done it after the playoff loss to KC.
Clowney?!?!.... (attempts to roll eyes out of his head....) Hopkins is gone and Watson is among the 2-3 highest-ranked QBs in the game. And drafting + free agency don't require high picks or lots of money if you have a great front office. It's certainly a disadvantage - but they have the hardest thing to find. Again: their elite QB is 25-years old. If they're going to punt on the next 3-4 years, Watson needs to be the first player they trade.
I'm sold on Dodds as well and would welcome either Saleh or Eberflus. Saleh has impressed this year with his adjustments when key players went down. He's also been in Houston before and knows a little bit about the fan base and ownership.
Yes, Clowney being gone is one of the reasons the defense is so bad, along with all the other terrible moves O'Brien did. The defense is in bad shape. Agreed it's a disadvantage. Hoping we can make up for it by just being that much better than everyone is unrealistic. This is why teams go through rebuilds, because they can't count on "just be smarter and nail every pick and free agent". Why punt on Watson? In 3 years he's still only 28.
I disagree. a) Clowney isn't that good; b) if he WAS still here, he'd be vastly overpaid and that would've crippled the defense in a different way. As it seems is the case, BOB fumbled the execution of the trade - not the idea behind trading him. I realize some of this may be by default - but looking at some of the pieces on defense: Justin Reid was a 3rd pick; Charles Omenihu was a 5th round pick; Duke Ejifor was 6th round pick; Tyrell Adams was undrafted... And look at the Colts' defense - it is built through mid-round picks and cheap free agents. The Legion of Boom was built the same way. *Fans* require 1st & 2nd round picks and oodles of cash because their ultimate knowledge of prospects and personnel is about a cm deep. Good front offices can absolutely make lemonade out of lemons. Because you want to rebuild and he's your best asset. It's dumb to flail and lose around an elite top 5 QB. Trading him would accelerate the rebuild exponentially. You either reset with Watson or rebuild without Watson.
Yeah, it's possible that we can hit on a bunch of low picks and cheap free agents, but it's unlikely If we get a good GM, most likely he'll want to go a rebuilding route, as that is more guaranteed path of success. Sure, we could trade Watson for a boatload of picks. But QBs can last quite awhile. He could be 40 and still playing at an elite level
I think some fans love the concept of rebuilding more than the actual games, which is why Franchise modes are so much fun. There is no such thing as rebuilding especially when you have a holy phenom at the QB spot. Teams like the Browns, Bills and Raiders have been 'rebuilding' since 2003, 2 playoff appearances combined since. I like to think of it as a Defensive Overhaul. You just plug as many holes as you can on the defensive side and let the new coaching staff implement their vision. I think there are 7 holes on Defense. The self made holes. DT, FS. Those 2 voids were 2 of the biggest contributors to the suckage. I like Poona Ford from Seattle at DT. Get him for 6 mil a year and Marcus Williams FS from New Orleans, 7 million. Then you shoot your shot at Mike Hilton or William Jackson whichever is less expensive. You're left with 4 big holes. Not playing Mercilus just because he earns a lot should shrink one of the holes left. Better coaching should get Cunningham back to the basics. Now you're looking at a defense with just 3 holes and you have players like Charles, Jacob and lonnie to see if they can make a jump and play more than 40% of the snaps. 3 holes in a defense is common even on good defenses. Cap space will be there let's not freak out about that. They can get talent 3rd - undrafted, contrary to popular belief.
They've done it pretty consistently in Indianapolis and that group may be put in charge of our personnel. Remember, they don't need a top 5 defense... they need a top ~15/16 defense - and that may be possible as is with better coaching and minimal roster moves. And if they hire a competent offensive staff - including a better OL coach...... I'm not sure they need to add much, at all, on offense to be very good. New staff will be able to properly evaluate and utilize talent, two things BOB's regime failed at miserably. The quickest path to success is utilizing Deshaun Watson while he's in his prime. Even with this disaster of a season, he's 28-24 as a starter - why you insist they rebuild with him makes no sense to me.
This defense will improve immediately if Blacklock and/or Greenard can develop into solid, productive players.
Indianapolis was never in the huge hole the Texans are now, and even they are barely contenders. Of course it makes sense. At this point we have no path to become a contender except in the unlikely scenario of many low draft picks and cheap free agents becoming stars.
All of this happens, and it works (nothing ever works 100%) and maybe they're an average team without assets to get better. The cap space will come eventually. Right now the Texans are bottom 10 in capspace through 2024, which limits our ability to sign free agents and keep our own players. Fixing that cap situation will require cutting or trading expensive players, which makes us worse short term but opens a path to be better in the future (getting high draft picks would also result from this). At least we have all our draft picks after this next draft. They should try to trade for more draft picks if possible
So they are a bad team now, I think we all agree. Next year there is no capspace and no picks in the first 2 rounds. In 2022 we have only 47mil in capspace, but at least we have all our picks. We simply have no path to get good the next two years, so we should unload assets for picks that will be here (and hopefully good players) when we start to have capspace in 2023. I can't imagine a GM saying "yeah we'll be contenders next year, all I have to do is find pro bowlers in round 3-7" (which is extremely rare)
... I've patiently explained all the unique obstacles this year and how just the numbers alone suggest a bounce back if they change absolutely nothing. But they're are absolutely going to change significant things: they're going to upgrade their front office and coaching staff; there's free agency; there's the draft... There are more ways to improve a team beyond ample cap space and first and second round draft picks. Yes, it's a bad team - a bad team playing a remarkably hard schedule; a bad team that's been extremely unlucky in one-score games; a bad team that made a coaching change; a bad team that saw it's second-best offensive playmaker and best defensive back suspended. *All* of those things are likely to change in the Texans' favor next year. But all you want to talk about is cap space and first and second round draft picks. That's... *not* the path. They don't need an influx of pro bowlers. If their defense can be... average - which coaching can make happen. If a new offensive staff can better utilize their lineman and playmakers... I mean, just look at Coutee and how a new coaching staff brought him out of cold storage. With Deshaun Watson, they can absolutely turn things around in a single offseason. We're not even a year removed from them building a 24-point playoff lead, on the road, against the eventual Super Bowl champions. I mean... the idea *this* is the aberration is not terribly far-fetched.
