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COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    This was somewhat predictable, but I'm sure teachers are shaking their heads right now.
     
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  2. Major

    Major Member

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    Schools don't seem to be super-spread locations, at least at the younger ages. I believe the big issue with restaurants is the 100% lack of masks.
     
  3. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    ‘At my sister in law’s school in South Texas, so many teachers are out with it, they ran out of subs. All the kids have it but their parents don’t want to get them tested because then they miss the extra curricular stuff, so it’s nailed the teachers. One of the football coaches was put on a ventilator and his family was told to come make their goodbyes through the glass just in case.
     
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  4. Roscoe Arbuckle

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  5. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    It's not the super-spreader events I was thinking about. Half of my friend's class was recently quarantined because of 1 kid who refused to keep their mask on and eventually tested positive. I'm guessing teachers can't "force" them to put the mask on, so just to be safe, they send half the class home. lol. It's so arbitrary.
     
  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Or maybe it's a lower % of cases in NY because bars and restaurants are under extensive restrictions across the state... For someone who claims to be a numbers person, you're terrible at understanding them. It speaks very poorly of your employer.
     
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  7. Buck Turgidson

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    He's self-employed, iirc.
     
  8. Major

    Major Member

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    Well, that speaks poorly of his clients or well of his abilities as a scam artist.
     
  9. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Covid fatigue is real. Infected cases in Cal doubled since Thanksgiving. No bueno.

    If inequality is worsening in Cali, blue collar in red states will feel Covid's ripple even more

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/11/california-covid-19-coronavirus-surging
    'The virus is moving in': why California is losing the fight against Covid
    Early in the coronavirus pandemic, California was celebrated as a beacon of common sense in a country on the brink.

    As Donald Trump shunned masks and restrictions and told Americans the virus “came out of nowhere” and “one day like a miracle will disappear”, California leaders were the first to order their residents to shelter in place.

    For months, the state seemed to avert the calamity that had befallen New York and Louisiana. Despite being the nation’s most populous state, with the largest number of direct flights to the pandemic’s initial center in China, California’s death rate remained low.

    By early summer, however, the pressure to open back up rose. Officials discovered the state wasn’t immune to the national fatigue with social distancing and mask-wearing. Amid a patchwork of haphazard rules and guidelines, cases crept up.

    ‘The most challenging moment’
    Today, most of California is back under lockdown amid a dramatic surge in infections. The state has tallied more than 1.3m cases, and broke a record last week with more than 25,000 infections recorded in a single day.

    Los Angeles county last week passed the disturbing milestone of 10,000 new Covid-19 cases a day, and officials there fear a spike in infections resulting from the Thanksgiving holiday could send hospitalizations surging further. LA officials said that one person is now dying of Covid every 20 minutes, and the county’s public health director, Barbara Ferrer, broke down crying at a briefing while talking about the “incalculable loss” of more than 8,000 deaths.

    San Francisco has seen its average case rate soar from 15 to 30 per 100,000 residents since the holiday. And in San Diego, by the US-Mexico border, more than 1,000 people are being infected each day.

    “This is the most challenging moment since the beginning of this pandemic,” Gavin Newsom, the California governor, said last week. “Lives are in the balance. Lives will be lost unless we do more than we’ve ever done.”

    Hospitals across the state are already overburdened. In southern California, the capacity of intensive care units has dwindled down to 10%. In Santa Clara county in the Bay Area, just 31 ICU beds remain for 2 million residents. San Francisco is projected to run out of ICU beds by 27 December.

    “The virus is moving in on all of us now,” said Marcia Santini, a registered nurse at the emergency department of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) medical center. “We’re scrambling to protect ourselves and protect our patients. The next couple of months are going to be really scary.”

    Staff on the frontlines say they are increasingly battling burnout after months of devastation and with a dark winter ahead. “I’ve seen younger people come in through the door, and be admitted right away to the ICU,” said Erick Fernandez, a 30-year-old ER nurse at Antelope Valley hospital (AVH), a facility north of LA. “Most of us have the same thought – what if it was us that got that sick? What if it was our family member?”

    Fernandez’s hospital recently received a state waiver to increase the number of patients per nurse amid a massive Covid surge, further exacerbating the stress of staff, he said. “We are coping as best as we can, but it’s emotionally and mentally taxing.”

    It was frustrating that the public no longer seemed to be taking Covid protocols seriously, Santini said. “Every day we go to work, we’re putting our lives and our family’s lives on the line.”

    Back in lockdown
    Facing an increasingly critical situation, the state last week moved to impose a new stay-at-home order, a regional one this time that would be triggered whenever an area’s ICU capacity fell below 15%. Southern California, the Central Valley and the Sacramento region quickly crossed the threshold. In the Bay Area, county officials pre-emptively enacted the measures. “We are not just doing this because we want to. This is about people’s lives,” San Francisco’s mayor, London Breed, said.

    Political leaders and health officials say the new restrictions are crucial. “The virus is everywhere in our city right now, and in so many neighborhoods where it hasn’t taken hold before,” said Dr Grant Colfax, the director of the San Francisco department of public health. “Even lower-risk activities now carry substantial risk because there is more virus out there than ever before. Simply put and bluntly put, we can’t get away with things that we’ve been able to get away with so far.”

    But the response from Californians has been more mixed. Many have said the rules, which are expected to last through Christmas and order residents to stay home except for essential activities, bar hotels from accepting most out-of-state guests, shut down outdoor dining and personal care businesses, were complex, and at times seemingly contradictory.

    Why should residents minimize contact with people from other households, but retail shopping and entertainment production can continue? Why did rules initially order the closure of playgrounds, while allowing indoor shopping malls to remain open? And why do Californians need to limit social contact, when their governor and the mayor of San Francisco attended celebrations at a Michelin-starred restaurant?

    Like Americans across the country Californians are facing “true pandemic fatigue”, said Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, meaning lockdowns, unlike at the beginning at the pandemic, “will be met with less compliance”.

    Indeed, opposition to the new measures has been particularly strong in rural counties, some of which have long balked at – and at times, defied – any kind of coronavirus restrictions even though the virus has run rampant among the predominantly Latino low-income farm workers who keep the state’s $50bn agricultural industry afloat.

    The restaurant industry, which has been among the hardest hit, is also balking at the new restrictions. Some restaurants have invested thousands in outdoor dining infrastructure they hoped would last them through the pandemic, only to see those facilities ordered to close.

    Sharokina Shams, a spokeswoman with the California Restaurant Association, says that the organization’s research has shown that 43% of restaurant owners are unsure whether their business will survive the next six months. “People who started out frustrated – today they are feeling just outright desperate.”

    Exacerbating inequalities
    Meanwhile, the latest Covid surge continues to shine a harsh light on inequality. California has seen record levels of unemployment and countless businesses have been shuttered for good, yet some sectors – notably the tech industry – have continued to rake in revenue. Economists are predicting that post-pandemic, California could see a so-called “K-shaped recovery”, where the incomes of the highest earners continue to rise just as quickly as they plummet for those who are struggling.

    Latinos in LA county, many of whom are working essential jobs, are also contracting the virus at more than double the rate of white residents. The toll in working-class neighborhoods has been especially devastating for undocumented people, who have been unable to access aid.

    “It’s really dire for our folks. They have a right to paid sick days, but that doesn’t mean that right is respected,” said Marissa Nuncio, an advocate for garment workers in LA who have faced Covid outbreaks at factories where they are manufacturing masks. Nuncio said nine months into the pandemic, she still gets calls from infected workers who are struggling to access tests and are afraid to go to the hospital. “They just say, ‘I hope I’m able to recover from this at home.’”

    The new lockdown measures do little to address those inequalities because they lack support for workers, said Marta Induni, the director of research at the Oakland-based non-profit Public Health Institute. “We have the confluence of factors where people are facing financial instability, and feel like they have no choice but to work even if they get sick,” she said. “And particularly in California, we have a large population of undocumented people who have been demonized by the federal government and are especially vulnerable.”

    Activists hope that California will take those inequalities into account as it develops a plan to distribute Covid-19 vaccines. California is on track to receive 327,000 doses in its first shipment, which will reach hospitals in the coming days. The state aims to give the vaccine to 2.16 million people by the end of the year, starting with healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.

    Officials have pledged to consider racial equity in distribution efforts, but there is a long road ahead to build trust in the vaccine and to reach the hardest-hit communities.
     
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  10. Buck Turgidson

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    Yeah...that was the joke.
     
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  11. Buck Turgidson

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    There is no doubt about it here outside of Austin. Impossible for me to tell how much is people coming in from out of town vs locals, the employees are still masked in the 4 or so places I go to, but not the customers. I regularly see restaurant parking lots with a ton of cars in them.
     
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  12. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Look, you moron, I could post any number of articles and you'd still speak this narrative. As far as a scam artist? What the hell are you talking about? I've said this before. We don't sell anything...
     
  13. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    I know my industry as much as any in it. Funny how you idiots behave this way over an article from New York. Not exactly a conservative biased article. Just data...
     
  14. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Just looked it up, kid. New York has pretty much the same guidelines as Texas, so you're also wrong about your assumption. Again.

    https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/g...ms/files/Food_Services_Summary_Guidelines.pdf
     
  15. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    there was an article that I read a couple weeks ago that said that some sections of New York City had as much as a 50% rate of infection based on the antibody studies they’ve performed. It ripped through NYC earlier and worse than was even originally thought back in March/April.

    The experts in the article posited that New York is seeing less spread now due to the high numbers of previously infected keeping the rate down
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    As I posted before this is the opposite of what is happening here where the average age of hospitalisation reached down to 64 and is similar for both genders.
    Perhaps is due to a different strain or better protection of elderly.

    After more than a month of lockdown it continues like that and the mean age of death has fallen by a few years .
     
  17. Buck Turgidson

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    Not sure if you noticed, but Cuomo is shutting down all indoor dining in NYC (and maybe elsewhere) starting this morning

    The decision has been expected for weeks with the rise in cases, but without federal aid, it will still come as a major blow to NYC restaurants


    https://ny.eater.com/2020/12/11/21564393/nyc-indoor-dining-coronavirus-ban
     
  18. Amiga

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  19. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    There is also this

    Will New York City Shut Down Again? Mayor Says Should Prepare for Possibility - Bloomberg

    “The governor said we should prepare for the possibility for a full shutdown, I agree with that,” de Blasio said Monday. “We need to recognize that that may be coming, and we need to get ready for that now.”
     
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  20. Amiga

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    Below are the 1st 48 weeks because you don't want to be comparing 48 weeks to 52 weeks, do you?

    2015: 2.488M
    2016: 2.506M
    2017: 2.576M
    2018: 2.613M
    2019: 2.621M
    2020: 2.926M

    Also, the last 8 weeks are considered incomplete, per CDC. What that means is 2020 # for the first 48 weeks is going to be larger than currently reported (2.926M). But even with that, you can already see that 2020 death is at least 300k above the previous 5 years for Jan through Nov.

    "*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
     
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