Duncan is so terrible defensively. He works for Miami because of the coaching but he’s Steve Novak pt2 in Houston. we already have bmac and green. There’s no use for Duncan here. And herro isn’t worth harden. I’m a fan but just no. Herro Bam and bad contracts aren’t the answer. at this point I’d rather trade harden to a bad situation for a better package then one of his preferable destinations
this has been pretty thoroughly discussed on twitter and on here. I think the consensus is: Herro is a nice starting piece Duncan is a nice add on, but his contract is up next summer and even as a RFA he's gonna get a big offer. see bertans and Harris this offseason. with wall and gordon still on the books I don't think we want to start a rebuild with Robinson making 10M+. nunn is in the same situation, won't command as much money next summer but the rockets won't want to start a rebuild by paying everyone right away. the heat don't have enough picks to compete with other offers (I think they can only do a swap in 2021 and unprotected in 2025 and 2027 IF they can renegotiate with OKC). precious is a nice add on that can count as a pick but its still not enough to compete with other offers. their salary fillers (olynyk, Iggy) can't be flipped for additional picks. compared to a potential Sixers offer of Simmons who has higher upside than Herro, thybulle who's under rookie contract for longer than Duncan, could offer as many additional picks as they want, potential addition of Maxey. its a better offer IF Morey decides to add Simmons and 2 or more picks that come after harden's contract expires (2023, 2025, 2027). compare that to jaylen brown who might have higher upside than Herro, smart of Thompson (either can be flipped for a pick), Robert Williams, Nesmith, Langford all potential add ins, plus all of Danny ainge's picks. finally OPJ who also has higher upside than Herro, Bol as an add on, barton can be flipped for a pick, they own all of their own future picks, only downside is taking Gary harris' contract. I would order the offers like this: #1 Boston - I think wall-smart-jaylen-wood is a playoff team right now which is important since we don't own our own picks. I also like the bag of picks hinge can send. #2 Denver - I'm a big believer in OPJ. I think he's going to end up being the best player out of Herro, brown, and even Simmons. Bol is going to become a valuable piece too, and again I like the potential for a bag of picks. neither of those are rumored to be on harden's list of potentially interested in making those offers so... #3 - Phily - unpopular opinion but I don't see Simmons getting much better than what he is. I think its hard to build around a guy who the defense just doesn't defend outside the paint, and if you make him a PF then your best player is basically dray or odom. maybe I'm being too harsh. he's an all star now and the other guys aren't but I'm thinking 5 years down the line he could very well be the worst of these 4 players. however, unprotected picks starting in 2023 when harden's contract is up and when Embiid eventually breaks down means we could be in for 2 or 3 high lotto picks. Boston with Tatum, Miami with bam, and Denver with jokic and Murray are too young and too good to be bad in 2023-2027 unless they leave in free agency. those won't be franchise saving picks. those are late firsts don't amount to much. #4 Nets - yes its a poo poo platter. however like phily, their picks from 2023-2027 will be high lotto picks. if we get 3 picks and 2 swaps we could have 5 high lotto picks. their poo poo platter can also be flipped for additional picks. allen, levert, and Dinwiddie are all worth a pick or 2. so the offer here is 3-5 lotto picks plus 3ish additional picks, but nothing immediate and nothing to build around. #5 Miami - maybe I'm being too harsh here but without any picks, and the picks we get are likely not great picks since bam is young and they'll make the playoffs for along time, no players to flip for other picks, and the add on's like Duncan have to get paid too soon losing all of their trade value. I think the offer comes down to harden for Herro with little other value coming in. I really like Herro but I would rather take my chances with unprotected nets picks all coming after harden KD and Kyrie are gone. open to criticism of my thinking. let me know why I'm undervaluing Simmons or Herro, or overvaluing OPJ and potential unprotected nets picks.
It's also funny to read some guys talk up Duncan Robinson like he's some sort of good prospect that adds good value to the package, dude is a good shooter with zero upside and he's already 26...imagine thinking "i wonder if the Heat would like a package of Caboclo, House, BMac, Martin jr and Clemons (for Butler), that's a lot to give up."
Be interesting to see....if giannis doesn’t sign that extension I think heat get aggressive in making a deal but you’ll still be waiting for Simmons. If giannis does then heat will stay the course.
I know Simmons ain’t perfect but to me he’s just in a whole different tier than herro....he’s a perennial all nba level player- without a jump shot. He can play w wall, u can run lineups with him as 4 with wood as a 5 and wall at the 1 and run teams off the court. He’s a game changer defensively. It’s not that close to me tbh. I know the age difference, I know the upside for herro but Simmons still has upside too...how he doesn’t shoot? Well another gear on defensive, more aggressive taking it to the rim and he’s already a great playmaker
There's no way to do that, you just have to think about the specific player, the way he likes and he's used to play, imagine him doing the opposite in another enviroment and decide if you think he would do that just fine or not.
Not necessarily. It will never be a 1:1 trade with Harden. It is Harden for Herro + stuff. Heat was pretty good with Herro + stuff last year, and all it tells me, is Harden must be traded because if he stays we all know it will be trouble, not "winning now". How could someone tell by Harden's rookie year, that he would be as good as he is today? So why shutdown the possibility of Herro becoming even better than Harden, if he had a WAY better rookie season?
I had Miami as the sleeper for Harden several weeks back. I like the package Miami can put together better than anyone but Philly. I just don't know whether TF would ship Morey Harden on a silver platter. Miami can give us some young shooters to insert with current team that would make for some pretty exciting TEAM basketball. I loved the movement we had in the first game and with Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa and whatever we get in the package, we suddenly get deeper/younger.
Well Morey got Harden from OKC for a steal and what some call the trade of the century. Now why do I get the feeling the same will be done to us with Harden this time. SMH.
As has been repeated several times, if Bam isn’t in the deal, Houston isn’t doing it. The Miami deal is similar to the Nets deal in that it’s only something you do if there is nothing better and you are forced to trade Harden. It’s something we might do next year, with Harden as an expiring, but not with him under contract for 2 years. If you want Harden, the trade should hurt.
Heat fans are delusional. Herro as untouchable lol... even if salaries matched, Miami would need to include a boatload of high draft picks. Herro might be an All Star one day but that pales in comparison to a first ballot Hall of Famer like Harden
