I've broken down before why I think a big Realmuto contract would be a bad investment. Here's the short version: catchers are running backs. Best when you limit their workload, and peak performance is terribly short. Superstar level catchers at the age of 30 either drop off dramatically, change positions, or both. That hypothetical $85m contract is going to look bad in hindsight, to whoever signs it. Don't invest in long term contracts to catchers or running backs in their 30s. It's a bad bet.
While I generally agree with your post (i.e., there are safer routes to spend money), I think he gets north of $100M. I also think he'll be able to play at other positions better than most catchers such that he probably won't be the worst catcher contract in the 30s.
His offensive production isn't good enough to be paid that kind of money at other positions. If you are paying him 20 million a year to put up those numbers at 1B the GM that signed him should be fired. He's not playing 2B here with Altuve around either. In my opinon, he is very overrated compared to elite catchers of the past. We just have really bad catchers overall in baseball right now so yea... he might be the best in baseball but that is a shot at the depth of the catching talent more than anything.
This. Exactly this. The problem with moving catchers to other positions (especially a corner spot) is that their surplus value is tied to the fact that catchers hit much worse as a unit. Elite-level catcher equates to average-level hitter (or worse) at any other spot in the lineup.
The last years of a contract are usually upside down regardless of position as that money is mostly paying for services rendered in the 1st 2-3 years of a contract. While I agree catchers are risky, someone is going to pay him trying to force things. I wouldn't be opposed to getting Realmuto considering I expect Astros to better in 2021 than in 2024 if the Astros decide to push all in. I don't think Click will take the risk on Realmuto as I expect he wants financial flexibility to help team in the future more than going all-in.
Using Zips projections as a guide, median outcome for Realmuto probably looks something like: Age 30 2021: 4.2 fWAR 31/2022: 3.6 32/2023: 3.2 33/2024: 2.1 34/2025: 1.5 35/2026: 0.7 I don’t think anybody is talking about giving him 7+ years but we can assume he’d be roughly replacement level or worse after age 35. So he projects to be worth 14.6 wins over the next 5 seasons. Pre-COVID, that would have made him pretty easily a $100M+ player. But even factoring down $/war and assuming that fairly steep decline, he’s still worth $85M. Also, Realmuto is not an offense only catcher. He is an excellent defender. So more likely than him moving to 1B or DH is that he sticks at catcher but fades from star to solid vet to has-been; but he will still likely be a viable major league catcher into his mid 30s. Assuming Crane approves the spending, if I were Click I would be willing to go to $105M/5yr with a $12M 6th year club option with a $1M buyout.
F Springer. Sign Realmuto Get Dahl and Bradley Jr. Grab two Bull pen arms and see what this season does
All BS aside, here is a major reason we likely won't be signing Realmuto.... "Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks..... A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well." https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained-c259650658
So... you wouldn't trade a 4th and 9th round draft (could be a higher pick depending on Springer compensation) choice and a low level international player for Realmuto?
I don't believe the Astros will do it because of the money and the draft pick losses just make it harder to pull the trigger. The single mention of the Astros and Realmuto being linked this offseason has been a reporter making his predictions of where players might land. The only actual reports of the Astros being interested in a catcher was Jason Castro. If you are in on Realmuto I doubt you are shopping in the Jason Castro aisle.... I also think the Astros were extremely happy with the job Maldonado did leading the young pitchers in the rotation and bullpen all the way to the ALCS. While an upgrade at catcher would be a nice luxury, I believe the Astros are value hunting. That value is more likely to be found in the outfield where we have 2 gaping holes and not found by paying the best catcher in baseball a premium salary.
$40M/4yr is pretty steep for McCann but the AAV prevents it from being too burdensome. Using that as a data point for projecting Realmuto, McCann is a year older than Realmuto, and McCann is projected for 1.1 fWAR, while Realmuto projects for 3.7. So relying solely on that, one would expect Realmuto to get $100M+. Looking at potential suitors, the Cardinals, Nationals, Astros, and Phillies are contenders that looks fairly weak at catcher.
I don't see it as that much of an overpay. Maybe the 4th year but not the 10 million per. Jason Castro hit .210 with a. 684 OPS his last year in Houston and made over 8 million a year for 3 years with the Twins. Travis d'Arnaud hit .263 with a .782 OPS and 16 HRs in Tampa in 2019. He received 2 years 16 million from the Braves. McCann is younger than d'Arnaud and in the shortened season he hit .289 with a .896 OPS. In 2019 he hit .273 with a .783 OPS. and 18 HRs. Also, NY always has to pay a premium with their taxes.
