On Hand, they could have had him for $10M off of waivers if they thought that would be his market value and they wouldn't be able to get relief pitching cheaper.
I don't think Smith's contract is underwater by much even in this climate. $4M/1yr is fine for a guy who has proven effective and you can be pretty damn sure he is fully healthy and hungry after a year off. I would imagine that if he were a free agent he would be looking at between $3M and $5M on a 1 year deal.
All you can say about that choice is that they didn't feel like that was the right use of their money at that time. My guess is that they have a budget that includes the possibility that they re-sign both Springer and Brantley. In that (unlikely) scenario, they are pretty much tapped out. If one or both leave, and they replace them for cheaper, then that might free up funds to spend on a relief ace like Hand. But I can see them not wanting to commit that kind of cash to him before free agency even starts. The fact that nobody claimed Hand means that he's unlikely to get more than $10m in free agency. If his contract was considered to have significant excess value, somebody would have made that move.
Exactly. The market changed. It affects Hand not being worth $10M. It means that Smith would probably be worth $2-3M.
Yankees called the pirates on Taillon and Bell.... Click better snap into it. Those two would be very good adds
Bell I'm not so sure w Yuli & Yordan in place ... Taillon I would start with Javier + Whitley and be willing to add from there First Charlie Then Cole Then Glasnow Whenever PITT let's go of a bluechip arm, I want to be first in line
Consider that the long-standing disparity in pay between "closers" and other relief pitchers may be diminishing, as smart teams realize that the value of pitching the 9th inning doesn't justify paying two or three times the salary of other good relief pitchers. If Hand is worth let's say $8m, then Smith's value is much more than 25-30% of that. On the whole, I'm happy that he's back, and am sorry his mom passed due to Huntington's Disease this summer. Him opting in for 2021 hopefully means he feels comfortable enough, medically, to play a season with the still-ongoing pandemic.
I wouldn't even give up Javier by himself for 2 seasons of Taillon coming off his 2nd TJ surgery. He will be innings limited this year and has never thrown more than 147.1 innnings in a season. I would rather take a chance signing Rodon, Quintana, Richards, or Urena and keeping Javier and Whitley.
Oof ... Had no idea about 2nd TJ Forget Jamison in that case Thanks for reality check Rodon is another I would love to hand to Strom before he finally retires Unless he is hurt again, that slider was so special at one point ... Even 150 innings could add a couple wins Great value lotto ticket ... May not even require guaranteed offer if enough performance incentives added
Taillons value is low. TJ surgery So no I wouldn't start with Whitley. I would go for Bell. F Gurriel. He gone after this contract his age. I would circle back on Musgrove
Will be interesting to see if Houston loses (or adds) any players in the Rule 5 Draft today, or if this spurs some activity. I will be pretty surprised if JA Rivera is not chosen, he is a better prospect than Yohan Ramirez was, and Ramirez had a very good year with the Mariners. Incidentally, Ramirez and Brandon Bailey (also from Astros) were the only 2 2020 Rule 5 picks to post positive fWAR. Other than Rivera, I think Jojanse Torres also has a good chance to be chosen today.
Hand's last two seasons (2019-2020), even though 2020 was only 60 games, has a WAR of 2.7. Smith for 2018, 2019..0.6. 0.6/2.7*100% is 22%. Hand is worth more because he is a better pitcher that can pitch in more high leverage situations since he doesn't have a platoon weakness. Smith is a lot older and his Ks were dropping in 2018 and 2019 despite Astros being picky about when to use him. Granted, I don't put much weight in ERAs for relief pitchers in short stints like Smith's 2019 to project well for future performance. Also, I'm not sure Hand gets an $8M. I'd guess $6-$8M.
Where are you getting your numbers from? Baseball reference has Hand's WAR as 1.8 over those two seasons (1.1 and 0.7). If you look at 2018-2019, it rises to 2.0 for two seasons (0.9 and 1.1). Smith is at 1.1 for that span (0.5 and 0.6). 1.1/2.0 is 55%.
Smith signed pre-covid. Hand will sign in the middle of the pandemic. That's the difference. Smith came back from an achilles rupture and posted a 1.80 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP pitching in 28 games in 2019. He was also solid in the playoffs until the World Series. At 4 million a year that was a 50% paycut and decent value PRE COVID. Remember, even Drew Pomeranz received 4 years 34 million to be a reliever that same offseason after posting a combined .3 war the previous 2 seasons. So your selective war calculation doesn't totally add up.
FanGraphs. rWAR is based on ERA. fWAR is not. fWAR, for pitchers, is much more representative of true talent level for future projection while rWAR is much better for saying which team benefitted the most while a pitcher was on the mound (though not necessarily as accurate to how much of the result was the pitcher's doing).
Live stream of the rule 5 draft for those interested. https://www.mlb.com/video/2020-mlb-rule-5-draft-2158
My "selective" WAR calculation was based on the last two years of their production for the WAR calculation that I always use. I use fWAR because it is more accurate in smaller sample sizes at being representative of a pitcher's true talent level. ERA takes about 600 innings to reflect a good mean to a pitcher's actual talent as ERA is more influenced by the batter, defense, and umpire. So while the Astros gave up a low ERA while Smith was on the mound in 2019, it is very tough to say how much of the value belongs to Smith using ERA in significantly less than 600 innings. Also, Hand signed pre-COVID in 2018. When he was not kept some have speculated he was hurt as it didn't make sence at the time. Edit: If Smith had a history as a FIP-beater, I might give a little more credit to Smith's low ERA being more than just a hot streak, luck, variation.
Astros lost JA Rivera to the Angels and didn't make a pick. CF Akil Baddoo was taken by the Twins; he was a guy I would have liked Houston to take to compete for the 4th OF spot (and possible CF if he exceeded expectations). Slow start to Click's first full offseason.
